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Valuations Matter!


Thanks to bpp, who has supplied these graphs.
HDBR versus Earnings Yield Graph 1871-1980
HDBR versus Earnings Yield Graph 1871-1922
HDBR versus Earnings Yield Graph 1923-1980

JWR1945 Spreadsheets


(Note: Click on your mouse to save and download the spreadsheets to your hard drive. You'll have to use the file-extract utility in Windows to return the files to Excel .xls format after downloading them.)
You can download a free program to unzip files from Coffee Cup.

Special Version V1.0A is the basic Retire Early Safe Withdrawal Calculator (Version 1.61 of November 7, 2002) with a fully functional switching capability and with a variety of data analysis enhancements.

Download Special Version V1.0A
Filename=jwr1945_xls1.exe, filesize=1,547kb
expands to
filesize=4.58Mb Excel spreadsheet

Switching is limited to portfolios of stocks and commercial paper.

The unmodified Retire Early Safe Withdrawal Calculator did not include its intended switching capabilities because of Excel programming limitations. I have added row 2550, which calculates the total stock return. Its calculation is exactly the same as was originally made in row 182. By making this calculation separately, I have been able to implement the full switching logic that was originally intended. Excel does not allow enough code to do everything in row 182 by itself. The modified logic in row 182 now uses both P/E10 switching thresholds and all three portfolio allocations. [Previously, the only cells F19, B20 and I20 were functional. Cells I19 and F20 were not used.]

There are two data analysis groups.

The first is in columns L through T and rows 1 through 9 and in columns BA through BJ and rows 1 through 144. This area makes determining which portfolios would have survived as a function of withdrawal rates much easier. In particular, it allows you to select the retirement start years that you are interested in. I usually examine 30-year retirements from 1871-1980 and 1921-1980. Notice that I include some partially completed sequences (which are subjected to dummy data after 2002) but not all.

I have put the instructions for using the other area of data analysis in columns F through I and in rows 12 through 17. Simply press function key F5 (Go To) and enter the proper location.

Here is another helpful hint. Use the shortcut CTRL+HOME to return to the beginning of the spreadsheet (at cell A1). It saves a lot of time.

This post will guide you through my original modifications to the Retire Early Safe Withdrawal Calculator. They make data reduction easier and they provide the full, originally intended switching capability. A Reference Guide for Modifying Calculators dated Thu, Dec 25, 2003 at 11:34 am CST http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1907

JanSz-Chips Deluxe V1.0B includes three additional enhancements.

1) The JanSz feature reduces the portfolio balance by a specified percentage of any increase from six years earlier. It leaves the balance untouched when there is a decrease. It should normally be set to 0%.

2) The Chips feature allows you to specify what fraction of the dividend amount that you reinvest. It should normally be set to 100%.

3) The B feature expands the switching capabilities. It introduces four P/E10 thresholds with five allocations. However, the stock allocation below the lowest threshold is fixed at 100% and the stock allocation above the highest threshold is fixed at 0%. You can choose any combination of percentages for the intermediate allocations. In version V1.0B, switching is limited to portfolios of stocks and commercial paper.

JanSz-Chips Deluxe V1.0C combines versions V1.0B, V2.0B and V3.0B, allows you to specify the percentage of interest to reinvest and adds many data analysis enhancements in rows 4000-6800. You may use commercial paper or TIPS or I-bonds as the investment other than stocks. [Self extracting file.]

Download JanSz-Chips Deluxe V1.0C
Filename=MyZipFile2.exe, filesize=3,195kb
expands to JanSz-Chips Deluxe V1.0C
filesize=8Mb Excel spreadsheet

Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08 changes the JanSz algorithm from six-year comparisons to single-year comparisons. It adds numerous data analysis tables and summaries. It corrects the TIPS and I-Bonds algorithms. [Self extracting file]

Download Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08
Filename=DeluxeCalculatorV1dot1A08.exe, filesize=3.75Mb
expands to Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08
filesize=15.8Mb Excel spreadsheet

Deluxe Calculator V1.1B08 is an edited version of V1.1A08 to reduce the amount of memory needed after being expanded. [Self extracting file]

Download Deluxe Calculator V1.1B08
Filename=DeluxeCalculatorV1dot1B08.exe, filesize=3.73Mb
expands to DeluxeCalculator V1.1B08
filesize=11.0Mb Excel spreadsheet

These posts describe the additional modifications in the most recent versions of the calculator. Deluxe Versions of the Calculators dated Wed, Jan 14, 2004 at 2:01 pm CST. http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1978

Newer Deluxe Versions of the SWR Calculators dated Sun, Jan 18, 2004 at 1:11 pm CST http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1994

Deluxe Version B of Calculators: More thresholds dated Sun, Feb 22, 2004 at 2:19 pm CST http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2151

Deluxe Calculator V1.1A04 dated Sun, Sep 26, 2004 at 6:46 pm CDT (entire thread) http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2978

Gummy 02 version of Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08 adds two new withdrawal rate algorithms. [Self extracting file]

Download Gummy 02 version of the Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08
Filename=Gummy02.exe, filesize=4.8Mb
expands to Gummy 02 version of the Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08
filesize=15.9Mb Excel spreadsheet

Gummy 03 version of Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08 substitutes Gummy's data for the existing stocks data. [Self extracting file]

Download Gummy 03 version of the Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08
Filename=Gummy03.exe, filesize=5.07Mb
expands to Gummy 03 version of the Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08
filesize=15.9Mb Excel spreadsheet

Gummy 04 version of Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08 substitutes Gummy's data for the existing stock data and for the commercial paper data (independently). [Self extracting file]

Download Gummy 04 version of the Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08
Filename=Gummy04.exe, filesize=5.14Mb
expands to Gummy 04 version of the Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08
filesize=15.9Mb Excel spreadsheet



Credits:

John Greaney developed the basic Retire Early Safe Withdrawal Calculator. His web site can be found at http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/



Thanks to bpp, who has supplied these graphs.
HDBR versus Earnings Yield Graph 1871-1980
HDBR versus Earnings Yield Graph 1871-1922
HDBR versus Earnings Yield Graph 1923-1980