Something to look forward to.

Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates

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JWR1945
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Something to look forward to.

Post by JWR1945 »

hocus2004 wrote:I will be starting a thread at the SWR Research Group board in coming days in which I will demonstrate the power that these boards have to help middle-class workers achieve their most important life years. When FIRE [Financial Independence/Retire Early] discussion boards permit honest and informed on-topic posting, they are capable of doing wonderful things for large numbers of people. These boards matter. They are worth saving.
This is a very positive announcement. I will be looking forward to seeing this new thread.

Have fun.

John R.
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Post by hocus2004 »

Here's a post that Wanderer put to the Motley Fool board in September 2000:

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid= ... t=postdate

Wanderer: "What a wonderful thing a network/community like this is! The ideas, insights, object lessons that come pouring forth are truly amazing. The connections explode exponentially as the nodes increase linearly.....The impact of the network seems clear.

"The topics range from the mundane to the technical to the uplifting - it's truly quite amazing. Want to know about SEPPs? You've come to the right place! Safe Withdrawal Rates? You're there! How about the insanity of corporate/modern/US life? Got that for you, too!

"It's fascinating, because on any given day, any one of these topics, or a slew of others related to the why's and how's of RE will rule this pretty little spot on the web! As one poster after another takes aim at some new aspect of RE that we hadn't considered or hadn't considered as fully as perhaps we ought to have.

"And the topics generally (with the exception of my infamous "Dr. Laura" post) all have more or less to do with a dream: retiring early/financial independence. Call it what you will, the posters here explore every aspect of what can help one attain it or interfere with its swift realization.

"And to top it all off, for those of us in search of a little redemption for our jaundiced view of humanity, there are an incredible array of examples of courage, determination and passion. Parents, children, brothers and sisters, friend and colleagues. "Little people." Anonymous cogs in corporate machines. Denizens of homogenous, alienated suburbs. Nobodies from hick towns....

"Each with the not-so-little idea that they each can make a difference, if not in someone else's life, at least in their own. Almost all of them descendants of immigrants, more recent or less so, who came from cultures where the very idea of social mobility was revolutionary! ....

"Several posters (and, although I haven't said it, this applies to me, too) have noted that their need for paid employment has been cut years short by what they have learned here. Years short. Years of unfulfilling, deadening work truncated and replaced by an opportunity to use our very limited time here in a joyful manner. Not pointless self-indulgence. Not pointless self-denial. But in a manner that enriches ourselves and others.

"But don't get the wrong impression. This place isn't populated by saints. The arguments can get pretty pointed (although the conversation remains relatively (actually, very) civil) and the soil is rich. Something about the confluence of the forum and the community and the network tends to drag the community forward toward the elusive goal of quality....

"Maybe it's the testing of the limits and support for Professor Schiller's theories. Maybe a discussion of the why's of our relationship to money and capitalism. Maybe it's an examination of the nature of our jobs and our co-workers, of the details involved in the working out of our destinies. And who could tire of the ever-popular rent vs. buy debate (ducking)? Whatever. Each of the topics will get a thorough going-over, sooner rather than later.

"That doesn't mean there isn't room for disagreements. There are plenty of those. Somehow those seem to be resolved with something less than full-scale warfare.

"And there's something inspiring about the dignity people take for themselves as they struggle against all those "givens" in life, against all the crummy institutions that want to keep them boxed-in and manageable....The message this board sends is a resounding, "Hell no! We won't go (quietly into that drone-like good night)."

"Because what we're talking about here really isn't just retire early. That's too little a term for it. It might suffice in the day to day. What we're talking about here, really, if hocus' 2000 recs mean anything, is empowerment. Grabbing back some of the flicker that constitutes our presence on this planet being sapped away (or snatched) before our very eyes. It goes back to what Joe Dominguez said: money is what you trade your life energy for. I see people here striving to make very intelligent decisions about how they spend that most precious of commodities: time.

"It goes back much, much further of course. To the first guy or gal who said, "This is b______t! I have a better way (to hunt animals, grow food, raise children, understand nature, etc.)..... It's really a quest for freedom and meaning. It's a worthy quest."
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Post by Delawaredave »

I take it the Motely Fool community boards are only accessible to members - correct ?

I can't access any of these references.

Any way to get ? (besides a membership - I have too many memberships already...)

Thanks
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Post by ElSupremo »

Greetings Delawaredave :)

You can just sign up for a 30 day free trial membership. You can then read the forums but you can't post. I wouldn't use my primary email address though. Use a hotmail or google one. Unless you want to be pestered for the rest of you life that is.
"The best things in life are FREE!"

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Post by hocus2004 »

It costs about $30 a year for admission to the Motley Fool boards. They provide a free trial that I believe lasts 30 days.
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Post by peterv »

I take it the Motely Fool community boards are only accessible to members - correct ?

I can't access any of these references.

Any way to get ? (besides a membership - I have too many memberships already...)
You can get logins to many sites like this from bugmenot.com
Where current subscribers are willing to let you use their login.

Cheers,

Peter
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Post by hocus2004 »

Here's one from CMorford from February 2001, pointing out the problem that ultimately led me to coming forward with The Post Heard 'Round the World. This one was recommended by 51 community members.

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid= ... t=postdate

CMorford: "As of today I won't be reading or posting to the REHP board anymore.

"Reasons?

"I've learned all I need to know about the technical aspect of FI/RE and and SEPP.
Also contributing: The fact that the overall tone of the board has degenerated to pointless political bickering...

"If I wanted that, I'd listen to Rush Limbaugh.

"I'd like to thank Intercst, Hocus and especially The Badger (for pointing me here in the first place), for providing absolutely the best information that money can't buy...

"To the rest of you: I have enjoyed my time here (mostly) and you've all been a part of that...Thanks!"
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Post by unclemick »

I presume we are talking the accumulation phase from the thread starter.

Don't gloss over the fundamentals and repeating yourself is not a crime(remember Bogle).

Live below your means.

When all else fails - keep it simple.

Time in the market, not market timing(with some simple twists - age and valuation concerns). Show the effects of compounding.

Fun in life is not a one to one correlation with spending money.

Above all else - never forget POGO. Yogi is good but POGO first.

In summary - when you get there - remember De Gaul and the Norwegian widow in distribution - with Bear Bryant as honorable mention (defense, defense, defense).
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Post by ElSupremo »

Greetings unclemick :)

That's a good post for the index funds board. ;)
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Post by unclemick »

Well perhaps

But again - I hope the thread never forgets POGO. We can put the 'high class' behavioral finance over on the index board.

Heh, heh, heh

I always did best(in hindsight) when I hid from myself - aka auto DCA into stuff I 'couldn't touch' until 59 1/2. The money was 'kept in trust by a mysterious stranger'.
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Post by hocus2004 »

I hope the thread never forgets POGO.

It's not to worry, UncleMick. It's my impression that most of us in this community have strong and long memories.

Anyway, If all else fails, there's always the Post Archives.
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Post by hocus2004 »

Here's one put forward by Bill2975 in January 2001:

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid= ... t=postdate

Bill2975: "I started reading this board in April, 2000. It's been a wonderful experience, and I wanted to note some of the lessons I learned this year as a result of participating in this community. Maybe you learned some of these, too.

"Thanks to intercst, TheBadger, dory36, NowInMaui, ariechert, hocus, galeno, eurotrash01, arête, ptsurmr, wanderer0692, SeattlePioneer, and the rest of the regulars on this board, I learned that:
Early Retirement (RE or ER, depending on context) does not necessarily mean actually retiring to a passive lifestyle, but rather achieving enough financial independence so that you can make decisions about your own life without worrying about what your employer wants from you.

"Thanks to intercst, TheBadger, ariechert, dory36, and galeno, I learned that:

"Your possible RE date may be lots closer than you think, once you really look at your assets, expected costs, efficient frontiers, and safe withdrawal rates for your expected/desired survivability period; and that an appropriate asset allocation strategy for your situation including fixed asset ladders can enable you to maintain your lifestyle even during sad times in the markets.

"Thanks to intercst, TheBadger and hocus, I learned that:
If you've done a good job of saving and investing in tax-deferred accounts, there are ways to get your money out earlier than 59 ½ without penalty, so that you can retire early, tell your employer to take a hike, or just take a year (or more) off.

"Thanks to The Motley Fool's very existence, and all those who enthusiastically participate in intercst's REHP community (people like ariechert, arrete, luvmylife, dory36, ready4retirement, catlovr, intercst, TheBadger, SeattlePioneer, telegraph, InParadise, ptsurmr, SavageGrace, Draggon, BiggerGrey, tngirl74, and ResNullius), I learned that:
It's possible to make friends over the Internet (the modern equivalent of "pen pals"), finding people that you can communicate with and share your dreams with even if you haven't met them in person. People you don't know and have never met can be amazingly kind and helpful.

"People you don't know and have never met can be amazingly caustic and closed-minded. People have many facets - they can be funny, helpful, annoying, closed-minded, open-minded, supportive, inspiring, gracious, obnoxious - sometimes many of these in the same message.

"Thanks to TMFPixy and the other TMF staff, I learned that:

"There's help for us out there in figuring out what to do about health care insurance, long term care insurance, investment education, financial planning and dealing with all the other issues that one needs to think about to have a successful life rather than just a mere existence.

"Thanks to ChocoKitty, golfwaymore, my wife Linda, and others here too numerous to mention, I re-learned that you can:

"Enjoy every day you have on this earth, whether you've reached RE or not, because happiness is found along the way, not at the end of the road.

"Thanks to mpkear, Off2Explore, AmazingJason, and EditorialWe, I learned that:

"Many of our young REHP board members are just as interested in RE as we older ones are, and have gotten started a lot earlier than most of us ever did. There's a lot to admire in those who make up our next generations.

"Thanks to ariechert and tngirl74, I've even learned that:
People can have fun living in places like "Possum Hollow"Â￾ or "Possum Valley"Â￾. <grin>

"The REHP board has now become so valuable to my every day life that I even manage to keep up with the incredible volume of posts, and I would like to say thanks to all who participate in this community. I'm sure I have forgotten to name some who have inspired me as I read their post, but through all of you I have learned that:

"There are many ways to look at things. Exposure to this community has given me a chance to see things through the eyes of others. Hopefully that has made me a better and happier person - and it has certainly made me into one who is going to RE no later than 03/01/2002 - maybe sooner.

"bill2975, who's looking forward to another wonderful year on the REHP board, this time without national elections or chads"

62 recs.
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Post by ben »

I will be starting a thread at the SWR Research Group board in coming days in which I will demonstrate the power that these boards have to help middle-class workers achieve their most important life years
When do you start it? or is this it? Cheers!
Normal; to put on clothes bought for work, go to work in car bought to get to work needed to pay for the clothes, the car and the home left empty all day in order to afford to live in it...
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Post by hocus2004 »

Here's one from Goodeeds . This was put up in December 2001. 35 recs.

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid= ... =collapsed

Goodeeds: "I have spent the past few months (six?) reading/skimming the 58000+ posts here on the REHP board and have just caught up with real time. I thought I would share a few impressions of the community that has formed here.

"Like many things, I'm not sure exactly how I found the board, but am glad I have. I have only lurked, but by lurking, one can gain a great education on the topic of early retirement.

"The early board was dominated by technical questions and answers from experts like interc(o)st and TheBadger on topics that one would expect to be discussed on a RE board. From post #2, intercst has been the drive (and soul) of the board, at least to me. This community would not have formed without his efforts, so thank you intercst for your continuous support and sharing your knowledge and experience.

"I found the board gradually expanding its range of discussion as the community grew. There have always been OT posts, but more subjects were covered. The emotional aspect of ER received more discussion. I was struck by advice/input/kick in the pants for members who needed this such as duggg and biggalloot. I guess, that's what community is for -- support when it's needed....

"I was impressed with the posts of hocus. Hocus, you have a gift with the use of the english language. I know you are working on other projects, but your presence here added much depth. I look forward to your future work.

"....As time passed, and more recent posts were read, I found myself skimming more and reading less. Sorting posts to read by number of recs is not the best method, but I did tend to find myself following it, in the attempt to catch up to real time.

"So what can I say to finish? I've learned about FIRE by reading only. I feel I've taken from the knowledge of the board without contributing. Perhaps I can contribute in the future. It is not possible to mention everyone that has added to this community. It's not even necessary. The community here is tremendous - not perfect. Like any healthy community, there are disagreements and even arguments to go along with the discussion. It is in the diverse viewpoints and trading of ideas that strength is found."
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Post by ben »

Hocus; again; is this the thread you would start? Cheers!
Normal; to put on clothes bought for work, go to work in car bought to get to work needed to pay for the clothes, the car and the home left empty all day in order to afford to live in it...
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Post by hocus2004 »

Here's one by Nas90skog from January 2001. 116 recs.

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid= ... t=postdate

Nas90skog: "As we march on towards 30K msgs and the 2 year birthday of this board, I am confronted by the following question. When did the REHP message board morph from an invaluable site of highly concentrated ER information to what is far closer to a cocktail party?

"This is not intended as a rant, but I would like to offer some observations. I was turned on to this site over a year ago and have found information that is invaluable and priceless. I am grateful for those who have been so generous with their knowledge and time. For me, it is unfortunate that the pearls of wisdom are becoming harder to find. In part, that is due to my increased wisdom. Another component is the volume of messages that one has to sift through. One component of that is the increased popularity of the board which must be viewed as a good thing. The other seems to be a loss of discretion in postings.

"My own experience with msg boards is probably not unlike most. They can be educational, offering a venue for teaching and learning. They can be social where people of common interests and varying degrees of free time [often quite alot] get together to chew the fat. My take is that we are encountering considerably more of the latter than the former. Mind you, I fully understand that I can come and go as I see fit and if the board doesn't suit my needs, I don't need to follow it. I have certainly learned from my experience here where I can find information that suits my purposes. I only offer some observations in the interest of maintaining the level of quality.

"...it is one thing to have and post an opinion. It is quite another to repeatedly and incessantly present it to people as a means of correcting them. To me, the latter is a sign of insecurity and weakness and I hope that I have done a good job of rehabbing myself in that regard.

"I went back to msg #2 and read the original charter for this site and the intent of its moderator, the honorable intercst. When posting, we may want to ask ourselves if we are in harmony with the original intent. Another thing we may do is aspire to the likes of Hocus, by monitoring our recs. If we are posting many messages without many recs, perhaps we need to exercise more thought in our postings....

"If you find yourself posting 10+ times a day on the board for any length of time, you may wish to apply for a Soapbox. If accepted, you now have a venue for advancing your agenda. ...No doubt there will be some or many who disagree with this issue as they see it as a more social gathering. In times past, I may have even agreed with you. Thats OK. I just wanted to make the observation that for me, the board's intended purpose was diminishing or no longer being met."
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Post by unclemick »

3/8/05 at the close of market:

A 60/40 index - Vanguard Balanced Index = 2.53% current yield.

A good managed 40/60 - Vanguard Wellesley = 3.60% current yield.

Yawn!

RE: Soapboxes - it wouldn't surprise me if years from now it is disclosed that Intercst, Hocus, Raddr and others held secret meetings at an undisclosed doughnut shop to dream up posts to keep forum traffic juiced up.

I still remember the old, old Dallas - ??Who shot SWR?? -er J.R.

Don't forget to post some numbers once in a while - boring as they may be.

I still struggle to believe you guys take all this fall der rall seriously.
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Post by JWR1945 »

unclemick wrote:Don't forget to post some numbers once in a while - boring as they may be.
I have been posting numbers all along. I posted some more last night.

What I have started to do is to build upon a theme in a single thread. If you don't check out the latest on the thread, you are missing something.

I could have posted two or three additional threads by now if I had not adopted this new posting policy.

Right now, I have been looking at the combination of Using both Initial and Current Valuations for determining withdrawal amounts. The results are promising. I expect to have enough to write an overview post, which will have its own thread, after I have checked out what happens with a 50% stock allocation when there is a high amount of variability (more precisely, a large slope term).

Early results favored a large stock allocation along with a small amount of variability. I anticipate that there will be an interaction. It might turn out that a high stock-low variability combination should be compared to a low stock-high variability combination.

BTW, for those who really believe that it is best to have big withdrawals at first and smaller ones later, the high stock-high variability option may be for them. Take the money now. Pay later. If you luck out, you will die before it hurts. [Sarcasm. I advise against any strategy in which the way to luck out is to die early.]

Have fun.

John R.
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Post by unclemick »

Yep

JWR's - --'Initial and Current Valuations' thread seems to be on to something.

Look forward to your general conclusions/feelings as to offense/defense for someone taking the ER leap in the current evironment. Hmmm - at a stretch - perhaps some thoughts/considerations for someone ten years or less from ER. I've always thought the transition phase 'could' be the most chewy. I was lucky - historical tailwind plus bare(white???) knuckled cheap the first ten years of ER.
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Post by hocus2004 »

Here's one by intercst that appears in the thread started by NAS90skog with his post linked to above. 44 recs.

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid= ... t=postdate

Intercst: "I guess we can all differ in our interpretation of the "founder's" original intent. (I hope I don't come across sounding like a constitutional lawyer. <grin>)

"That being said, I'm certainly very happy with the way the REHP message board has evolved. The "emotional" aspects of early retirement which hocus and others have covered in eloquent detail are just as important as the more technical considerations of portfolio management, withdrawal rates, and tax law that are the focus of many posts from myself and TheBadger.

"The frequent forays into politics, "corporate bashing", and overspending by yuppies (a favorite of telegraph) just make the board that much more interesting. In any public forum, you have to take the wheat with the chaff -- and everyone's definition of chaff (or chads <grin>) is different.

"As you point out, making use of the "p-box" and reading the board in "threaded mode" will significantly reduce the number of posts you need to wade through. I also hope that folks continue to cooperate by preceding off topic posts with the notation "OT" in the subject title. This course is preferable to deputizing a guardian to police the REHP board.

"If I thought I needed policing, I would have remained employed. <grin>"
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