http://early-retirement.org/fire/latestart.asp
These results are as close as possible to those reported in Misjudging Safety. http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2242
I set up FIRECalc for 1921-1980. I used a $100000 starting balance. I varied the initial withdrawal amount in increments of $100 (that is, in increments of 0.1%). I used the CPI to adjust withdrawal amounts to match inflation. I set the expense ratio at 0.20%. I looked at 30-year survivability. The portfolios were re-balanced annually at no cost. I left all other settings in their default conditions.
The main difference in these calculations has to do with how withdrawals are made. FIRECalc makes one withdrawal per year. The Retire Early Safe Withdrawal Calculator (under default conditions) splits the withdrawal into two parts, one at the very first of the year and the other at the very end of the year. [It can be set up to make withdrawals differently.]
Most of the time, the two calculators produce results that are almost identical. Sometimes, the results differ substantially.
HDBR50 consists of 50% stocks and 50% commercial paper. HDBR80 consists of 80% stocks and 20% commercial paper.
The tables are arranged according to P/E10. The values are the 30-year Historical Database Rates. The portfolios all had positive balances after 30 years at the withdrawal rates shown. They all had negative or zero balances when the withdrawal rates were increased by 0.1%.
Have fun.
John R.
HDBR50 and HDBR80 Ordered by PE10
Lowest Valuations
Code: Select all
Year PE10 HDBR50 HDBR80
1921 5.1 9.6 11.6
1922 6.2 8.4 10.3
1924 8.0 7.9 9.5
1923 8.1 7.6 9.0
1933 8.7 5.8 8.4
1980 8.8 9.2 10.3
1975 8.9 7.0 8.3
1978 9.2 7.9 9.1
1979 9.2 8.4 9.5
1932 9.3 6.0 8.1
1925 9.6 7.3 8.4
1942 10.1 6.1 9.1
1943 10.1 6.3 9.2
1949 10.2 7.8 11.1
1948 10.4 7.7 10.9
1950 10.7 7.3 10.2
1944 11.0 6.1 8.6
1976 11.1 6.5 7.2
1926 11.3 6.9 7.7
1935 11.4 5.3 7.4
Middle Valuations
Code: Select all
Year PE10 HDBR50 HDBR80
1947 11.4 6.8 9.4
1977 11.4 6.8 7.4
1951 11.8 7.1 9.4
1945 11.9 5.9 8.2
1954 12.0 6.9 9.0
1952 12.5 6.9 9.0
1934 13.0 4.8 6.3
1953 13.0 6.7 8.6
1927 13.1 6.6 7.3
1938 13.5 4.9 6.6
1974 13.5 5.6 5.9
1958 13.7 5.8 6.8
1941 13.9 5.0 7.0
1939 15.5 4.6 6.0
1946 15.6 5.2 6.7
1955 15.9 5.8 6.9
1940 16.3 4.6 6.1
1971 16.4 4.9 5.0
1931 16.7 5.1 5.6
1957 16.7 5.3 6.0
Code: Select all
Year PE10 HDBR50 HDBR80
1936 17.0 4.4 5.5
1970 17.0 4.8 4.9
1972 17.2 4.8 4.8
1959 17.9 5.0 5.4
1956 18.2 5.2 5.9
1960 18.3 5.0 5.3
1961 18.4 5.0 5.3
1973 18.7 4.7 4.5
1928 18.8 5.7 5.8
1963 19.2 4.9 5.1
1967 20.4 4.5 4.5
1962 21.1 4.7 4.8
1969 21.1 4.3 4.2
1968 21.6 4.3 4.2
1937 21.6 3.9 4.6
1964 21.6 4.6 4.6
1930 22.3 4.8 4.8
1965 23.2 4.3 4.2
1966 24.0 4.2 4.0
1929 27.0 4.6 4.3