Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50%
With Rebalancing
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 is set equal to the Safe Withdrawal Rate
1923-1980 HSWR Curve Fit Equation:
HSWR = 0.362x+2.5395
where x is the percentage earnings yield
100E10/P and R-squared = 0.6583
Eyeball estimates when 100E10/P is below 10%:
Lower confidence limit = minus 0.8%
Higher confidence limit = plus 1.3%
SWR = HSWR-0.8 (the lower confidence limit)
Balances
Year, SWR, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 8.8 87451 69357 21338
1922 7.5 99107 76960 76888
1923 6.2 112786 79354 80855
1924 6.2 144426 100984 91904
1925 5.5 131023 91894 95893
1926 4.9 113404 106389 85222
1927 4.5 90713 120895 77753
1928 3.7 77073 90126 71405
1929 3.1 76276 78227 61784
1930 3.4 72191 78113 61254
1931 3.9 94347 76109 69993
1932 5.6 124977 73488 57278
1933 5.9 111927 83181 65974
1934 4.5 100869 77675 62155
1935 4.9 109469 87544 70161
1936 3.9 84499 84257 65026
1937 3.4 66100 63656 60514
1938 4.4 77705 66334 66352
1939 4.1 78084 63822 63900
1940 3.9 83236 70781 84315
1941 4.3 104018 85373 109605
1942 5.3 97314 93975 111252
1943 5.3 88402 93325 98325
1944 5.0 83792 86965 109785
1945 4.8 84625 100164 108467
1946 4.1 83525 109316 113758
1947 4.9 100359 123952 135972
1948 5.2 109785 120852 134715
1949 5.3 106205 137491 140906
1950 5.1 123794 140417 155096
1951 4.8 127860 129957 146776
1952 4.6 122537 133298 131565
1953 4.5 111362 125693 134463
1954 4.8 131058 136170 135696
1955 4.0 112409 122937 107043
1956 3.7 101671 114869 95628
1957 3.9 108640 107074 96472
1958 4.4 110972 116454 103191
1959 3.8 103492 102664 77748
1960 3.7 108819 94195 64644
1961 3.7 112150 92513 70361
1962 3.4 99146 90016 66613
1963 3.6 106969 97257 60887
1964 3.4 100658 77812 54575
1965 3.3 87091 60314 48707
1966 3.2 83426 64564 47870
1967 3.5 90830 67262 43422
1968 3.4 91223 57433 43546
1969 3.4 78011 55616 43883
1970 3.9 69313 56062 42720
1971 3.9 77043 56658 44903
1972 3.8 74321 48305 47979
1973 3.7 63888 49772 45209
1974 4.4 72170 58210 52613
1975 5.8 80410 60585 51938
1976 5.0 74351 60136 48148
1977 4.9 66736 69332 58044
1978 5.7 78338 71781 62886
1979 5.6 83750 80034 74376
1980 5.8 84191 86225 73347
Code: Select all
1921 8.8 (26928) (104825) (180504)
1922 7.5 28120 (6522) (57335)
1923 6.2 50960 27742 2297
1924 6.2 58834 32243 8615
1925 5.5 70432 48646 40431
1926 4.9 77347 50657 46599
1927 4.5 71686 63520 67456
1928 3.7 62779 65738 68599
1929 3.1 51358 52703 65685
1930 3.4 47576 49646 45956
1931 3.9 47034 45414 30689
1932 5.6 34897 13611 (19314)
1933 5.9 57859 46458 30848
1934 4.5 60240 70016 62510
1935 4.9 76906 76093 70660
1936 3.9 77549 72944 75142
1937 3.4 70339 72072 66298
1938 4.4 65384 63581 55840
1939 4.1 77362 73064 64423
1940 3.9 91933 97092 81031
1941 4.3 111872 126930 106218
1942 5.3 116472 110008 93517
1943 5.3 104247 103499 84529
1944 5.0 109267 103383 72856
1945 4.8 113621 93843 59765
1946 4.1 131746 112979 91051
1947 4.9 135441 123702 92406
1948 5.2 142100 126806 76826
1949 5.3 138182 102915 67208
1950 5.1 136600 96161 79956
1951 4.8 122140 94160 69328
1952 4.6 118760 87071 55148
1953 4.5 122268 76559 57447
1954 4.8 103432 70677 51353
1955 4.0 74108 59811 45389
1956 3.7 73769 54377 43285
1957 3.9 70517 44401 41593
1958 4.4 61723 42152 29754
1959 3.8 52474 37144 26304
1960 3.7 51334 37731 30842
1961 3.7 50522 38213 27015
1962 3.4 42948 42048 31772
1963 3.6 45672 38951 29969
1964 3.4 41766 34589 24939
1965 3.3 37005 32209 20221
1966 3.2 38519 30572 24412
1967 3.5 42610 32336 23414
1968 3.4 37833 30180 24591
1969 3.4 38295 30662 29359
1970 3.9 37384 23767 18261
1971 3.9 34705 26103 17563
1972 3.8 37223 28361 17303
1973 3.7 39039 37390 22828
1974 4.4 44814 48182 22197
1975 5.8 31426 20497 (8199)
1976 5.0 39168 31759 1149
1977 4.9 51424 41936 7708
1978 5.7 61792 39422 3585
1979 5.6 91405 52877 13228
1980 5.8 98761 46342 8039
Have fun.
John R.