Annualized Real Total Returns 80% stocks

Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates

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JWR1945
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Annualized Real Total Returns 80% stocks

Post by JWR1945 »

Here are some tables of annualized real rates of returns for the S&P500 index after 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years.

This is for 80% stocks and 20% commercial paper (rebalanced annually at no cost).

Dividends are reinvested. Expenses are 0.20%. I have included P/E10.

Code: Select all

Year  PE10      1      5      10     15     20    25    30
1871  13.25  11.53    9.43  11.84   9.98   8.39  7.92   8.09
1872  14.51   7.87    4.89   9.95   9.89   8.89  7.70   8.13
1873  15.25   4.40    6.61   9.74   9.04   8.41  7.88   7.79
1874  13.91  12.27   10.65   9.84   9.30   8.17  8.52   7.34
1875  13.55  11.26   11.08   8.84   9.25   7.94  7.51   7.62
1876  13.31  (9.74)  14.31  10.27   8.05   7.54  7.82   7.81
1877  10.60  16.99   15.26  12.47  10.26   8.41  8.79   8.09
1878   9.70  25.77   12.96  10.28   9.02   8.20  8.02   6.95
1879  10.69  14.46    9.03   8.61   7.34   7.98  6.66   6.93
1880  15.25  28.39    6.64   8.35   6.91   6.63  6.95   6.56
1881  18.47  (5.92)   6.36   5.05   5.37   6.26  6.56   5.85
1882  15.68   5.77    9.75   7.84   6.22   7.24  6.71   6.23 
1883  15.27   5.36    7.66   7.10   6.66   6.82  5.79   6.01 
1884  14.43   2.44    8.22   6.53   7.65   6.10  6.54   5.65
1885  13.13  26.76   10.08   7.05   6.63   7.02  6.54   5.41
1886  16.69  10.04    3.75   4.88   6.22   6.61  5.75   5.23
1887  17.51  (3.90)   5.97   4.49   6.41   5.96  5.54   4.74
1888  15.36   8.09    6.53   6.17   6.54   5.33  5.68   3.84
1889  15.80  11.59    4.87   7.37   5.41   6.12  5.15   3.45
1890  17.22  (5.75)   4.09   4.95   6.02   5.67  4.50   3.04
1891  15.43  22.31    6.03   7.48   7.58   6.26  5.53   2.99
1892  19.02  (1.31)   3.04   6.63   5.96   5.43  4.49   2.96
1893  17.66  (0.10)   5.80   6.55   4.93   5.47  3.31   3.74
1894  15.74   7.52    9.93   5.68   6.55   5.22  3.17   3.81
1895  16.52   3.37    5.81   7.00   6.20   4.60  2.83   4.20
1896  16.58   5.99    8.96   8.36   6.34   5.41  2.39   4.61
1897  17.03  12.65   10.35   7.46   6.24   4.86  2.95   4.80
1898  19.25  21.01    7.31   4.49   5.36   2.70  3.33   5.31
1899  22.93  (11.18)  1.59   4.89   3.69   1.54  2.62   5.79
1900  18.67  19.64    8.20   6.40   4.20   2.10  3.88   6.00
Last edited by JWR1945 on Tue Mar 16, 2004 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
JWR1945
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Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

Code: Select all

Year  PE10     1       5      10       15     20   25   30
1901  21.0  12.96     7.76    5.05   4.25  0.82  3.76  5.01
1902  22.3   (2.07)   4.64    4.24   3.09  1.18  3.72  3.70
1903  20.3   (7.94)   1.75    4.40   1.20  2.36  4.92  3.92
1904  15.9   21.70    8.29    4.76   1.52  2.88  6.65  5.35
1905  18.5   17.25    4.63    2.26   0.15  2.83  5.56  4.35
1906  20.1   (2.48)   2.41    2.54  (1.40) 2.78  4.47  4.96
1907  17.2  (14.85)   3.85    2.32   0.05  3.50  3.51  5.77
1908  11.9   25.70    7.11    0.93   2.57  5.72  4.35  5.39
1909  14.8    2.44    1.34   (1.70)  1.14  6.25  4.77  5.02
1910  14.5    5.32   (0.06)  (2.03)  2.22  5.77  4.27  5.03
1911  14.0    4.58    2.67   (3.24)  2.91  4.99  5.47  4.60
1912  13.8   (0.62)   0.82   (1.80)  3.38  3.43  6.16  3.85
1913  13.1   (4.67)  (4.89)   0.37   5.27  3.68  5.05  4.10
1914  11.6   (4.43)  (4.65)   1.03   7.94  5.65  5.78  4.74
1915  10.4   20.47   (3.94)   3.41   7.82  5.41  6.11  5.30
1916  12.5   (4.48)  (8.82)   3.03   5.78  6.19  4.99  5.49
1917  11.0   (25.76) (4.35)   4.66   4.29  7.51  4.44  4.72
1918   6.6   (3.48)   5.92   10.75   6.70  7.70  6.00  5.54
1919   6.1   (0.83)   7.06   14.84   9.33  8.56  6.73  5.88
1920   6.0   (7.14)  11.32   14.23   8.73  8.78  7.26  6.43
JWR1945
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Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

Code: Select all

Year  PE10     1       5       10      15    20    25   30
1921   5.1   21.34   16.41  13.93   11.72  8.75  8.61  7.25
1922   6.3   23.61   14.57   8.94   11.81  6.79  6.66  6.95
1923   8.2    1.82   15.79   7.09    8.29  6.02  5.46  6.55
1924   8.1   20.58   23.18  10.48    9.06  6.65  5.65  6.54
1925   9.7   16.08   17.22   7.46    7.95  6.27  5.48  6.98
1926  11.3   12.04   11.50   9.45    6.31  6.74  5.51  7.16
1927  13.2   30.36    3.58  10.46    4.32  4.77  5.48  6.86
1928  18.8   38.75   (0.95)  4.73    2.95  3.03  4.80  5.66
1929  27.1   (5.92)  (0.92)  2.62    1.64  1.67  3.49  5.41
1930  22.3   (9.61)  (1.50)  3.59    2.85  2.74  5.04  5.82
1931  16.7  (22.47)   7.43   3.81    5.20  4.06  6.32  6.30
1932   9.3    4.23   17.79   4.69    5.17  5.96  7.52  7.69
1933   8.7   38.96   10.73   4.95    4.38  6.29  7.03  7.44
1934  13.0   (8.63)   6.28   2.95    2.55  4.62  6.72  6.77
1935  11.5   39.48    8.95   5.09    4.19  6.74  7.34  7.49
1936  17.1   22.84    0.31   4.10    2.96  6.04  6.07  6.58
1937  21.6  (23.47)  (6.94) (0.62)   2.29  5.10  5.78  5.58
1938  13.5   13.19   (0.53)  1.35    4.84  6.12  6.79  6.85
1939  15.6    3.42   (0.28)  0.74    4.08  6.83  6.86  6.59
1940  16.4   (7.69)   1.37   1.88    6.02  6.95  7.21  6.08
1941  13.9  (15.62)   8.02   4.31    8.02  7.56  7.87  6.41
1942  10.1    6.81    6.14   7.25    9.45  9.22  8.29  7.28
1943  10.2   14.61    3.26   7.64    8.43  8.70  8.39  7.42
1944  11.1   12.23    1.76   6.33    9.32  8.73  8.02  6.24
1945  12.0   26.87    2.41   8.42    8.87  8.72  7.05  4.89
1946  15.6  (22.72)   0.74   8.02    7.41  7.84  6.09  4.77
1947  11.5  (6.91)    8.37  11.15   10.26  8.83  7.51  5.82
1948  10.4    6.54   12.20  11.12   10.58  9.72  8.28  5.66 
1949  10.2   15.82   11.09  13.30   11.15  9.64  7.15  5.60
1950  10.7   16.85   14.80  12.26   10.91  8.25  5.40  5.13
JWR1945
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Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

Code: Select all

Year  PE10   1       5      10      15    20     25    30
1951  11.9  11.34  15.82   10.91  10.31   7.47   5.60   4.91
1952  12.5  10.77  14.00   11.22   8.98   7.30   5.32   4.18
1953  13.0   1.39  10.05    9.78   8.90   7.32   4.40   4.44
1954  12.0  36.44  15.55   11.18   9.16   6.19   4.54   4.82
1955  16.0  22.18   9.78    9.01   6.15   3.17   3.29   3.87
1956  18.3   2.87   6.20    7.66   4.82   3.18   2.86   3.71
1957  16.7  (7.17)  8.51    6.56   5.15   3.25   2.32   4.34
1958  13.8  29.41   9.51    8.33   6.42   3.04   3.36   4.46
1959  18.0   5.59   6.98    6.10   3.24   1.95   2.79   3.91
1960  18.3   3.54   8.25    4.38   1.06   1.73   2.72   4.16
1961  18.5  14.55   9.13    4.13   2.20   2.04   3.22   3.87
1962  21.2  (2.81)  4.64    3.51   1.56   0.83   3.53   4.09
1963  19.3  15.10   7.17    4.91   0.97   1.87   3.48   4.29
1964  21.6  12.03   5.23    1.42   0.33   1.77   3.30   4.04
1965  23.3   7.83   0.65   (2.36) (0.35)  1.39   3.36   3.62
1966  24.1  (7.17) (0.64)  (1.10) (0.23)  1.79   2.85   4.13
1967  20.4   9.51   2.40    0.05  (0.41)  3.25   3.98   4.99
1968  21.5   5.04   2.70   (2.00)  0.16   2.57   3.73   5.33
1969  21.2 (10.28) (2.24)  (2.03)  0.65   2.83   3.80   5.90
1970  17.1   1.07  (5.28)  (0.86)  1.63   4.04   4.22   6.63
1971  16.5   7.95  (1.56)  (0.02)  2.62   3.74   5.11   6.36
1972  17.3  11.13  (2.24)  (1.79)  3.53   4.38   5.51   5.64
1973  18.7 (17.91) (6.48)  (1.08)  2.53   3.98   5.86    
1974  13.5 (23.38) (1.82)   2.13   4.57   5.37   7.61    
1975   8.9  22.48   3.77    5.27   7.35   6.75   9.19    
1976  11.2   4.29   1.56    4.77   5.57   6.85   8.02    
1977  11.4 (10.99) (1.34)   6.55   6.68   7.54   7.29    
1978   9.2   4.72   4.64    7.36   7.73   9.20       
1979   9.3   1.07   6.23    7.93   7.89  10.10       
1980   8.9   9.95   6.80    9.18   7.75  10.58     


There were periods of 15 years that showed a net loss (in the real, annualized total return) in spite of reinvesting dividends. In the decade of the 1960s there was only one year in which the real, annualized return exceeded 3% in spite of reinvesting dividends.

Have fun,

John R.
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