The year 2000 retiree status

Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates

Moderator: hocus2004

peterv
* Rookie
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 1:13 pm
Location: Reno, Nevada

Post by peterv »

Is there any way to browse around without knowing the ISBN number?
YES! All you need is an author or title. Check out the search page in my post. Just fill in what you know and let the search engine do the rest.

You can even put in part of an entry if that's all you know. I put "Smith" in the author field and got 445560 hits of books by Smiths. Or you can further refine your search by binding, edition, keywords, and price.

http://dogbert.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchEntry

Enjoy,

Peter
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

Thank you, peterv.

Have fun.

John R.
hocus2004
Moderator
Posts: 752
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 2004 7:33 am

Post by hocus2004 »

Inflation-Proofing Your Investments:A Permanent Program That Will Help You Protect Your Savings... (ISBN:0688035760)

I believe that was the one I was thinking of.

But, hey!, who wants to read the one about investing when we could be reading the one about "How to Be Free In An Unfree World," right?
User avatar
ben
*** Veteran
Posts: 231
Joined: Mon Feb 17, 2003 4:00 am
Location: The world is not enough

Post by ben »

All his books(almost) can be downloaded as pdf and sells for 9.75$ via the link I gave. He does not have much faith in government - who can blame him!? :lol:
Normal; to put on clothes bought for work, go to work in car bought to get to work needed to pay for the clothes, the car and the home left empty all day in order to afford to live in it...
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

hocus2004 wrote:One difference is that VBINX is TOTAL US market and TOTAL bond market - no need that the 2000 retiree stick to SP500 and gov bonds only when a fund like that is available. Only reason we keep looking at SP500 and gov bonds further back is that we do not HAVE the total market data.

I am not impressed by a showing that the Ben approach has done OK for five years. Any approach can do OK for five years. I am impressed that the Ben approach seems to have done a good bit better than the REHP study approach during a five-year time-period in which the REHP study approach did not well. This suggests to me that the Ben approach is another reasonable alternative to the intercst recommendation that all aspiring early retirees go with 74 percent S&P stocks regardless of valuation levels.
...
I see the Ben approach as a seventh alternative to the intercst approach. Ben is advocating an approach similar to one that I gave serious consideration to when I was putting together my plan....The 60/40 portfolio that Ben is examining in this thread is not a true Permanent Portfolio...I think he just went with the 60-40 thing here to simplify.
...
I see the Ben approach (the Permanent Portfolio approach) as being an alternative worthy of further study. There are a good number who simply are not comfortable with the idea of timing. This...calls for significant investment in stocks but which may well provide for a SWR significantly higher than the SWR obtained from the REHP approach at times of high valuations for S&P stocks. We need to look at some data to confirm this, of course. But it makes sense to me that the 60-40 total stock/total bond fund examined by Ben in his posts above might have a higher SWR than a 74 percent S&P stock portfolio at today's valuation levels. The Ben fund is more diversified, so one would intuitively expect that the highs would not be as high and the lows would not be as low.

My bottom line here is that I think that Ben is onto something significant....
I understand that it may be difficult or even impossible to do numbers investigations to confirm the value of the Ben approach because of a lack of pertinent data. My hope is that we might be able to come up with some creative ways of exploring the concept and assessing its workability....

I am pretty sure that we can modify our calculators to include the equivalent of bond ladders. If I am correct, we will then be able to simulate balanced funds much more realistically than we have up until now.

I have started a new thread Bond Ladders? that shows what I have available to for creating a new set of inputs. Such ladders could be formed out of treasury notes (5-years), bonds (30-years), TIPS and I-bonds tied in with the CPI along with TIPS and I-bonds tied in with the PPI.

Our calculators need to have a single number, the effective interest rate or return, for each year. I doubt that we will be able to lock-in favorable interest rates. But I think that we can simulate bond ladders.

Have fun.

John R.
Post Reply