Tapping into Portfolio Gains: Amounts Withdrawn

Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates

Moderator: hocus2004

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JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Tapping into Portfolio Gains: Amounts Withdrawn

Post by JWR1945 »

Here are tables of 5-year moving averages of withdrawal amounts based on an initial $100000 balance, 3.5% withdrawal rate. All amounts are in terms of real dollars (i.e., after adjusting for inflation).

50% stocks / 50% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 50% of portfolio gains removed, 3.5% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   6315    8874    6770    7815
1922   6499    7399    8631    4749
1923   5316    7002    8637    3997
1924   7063    5462    8823    4839
1925   7862    5703    6517    4555
1926   6958    5754    6446    4877
1927   6672    7498    4383    5529
1928   5654    7210    3860    4984
1929   3667    6645    3997    4274
1930   5429    5754    4298    4447
1931   5776    6226    4748    4602
1932   8513    4902    6324    5157
1933   8803    4041    6261    5251
1934   6139    4565    5307    4835
1935   6864    4757    5273    5179
1936   5276    4711    4591    5448
1937   3905    5389    4405    4671
1938   4124    6177    5142    5484
1939   4372    5501    5011    5162
1940   4667    5123    5011    6431
1941   5017    5013    6482    5392
1942   6704    5461    6326    5815
1943   6220    5791    6303    6536
1944   5756    5666    5879    6359
1945   5292    5510    7440    5390
1946   3803    6392    5300    5217
1947   5523    6449    5934    6295
1948   5995    6854    7143    5856
1949   6239    6541    7164    6857
1950   5560    8202    5833    5541
1951   6404    6127    6053    5183
1952   6365    5947    6224    5074
1953   6000    6511    5375    5388
1954   6120    6633    6286    5218
1955   6358    5285    4958    4593
1956   5263    5204    4552    4369
1957   5213    5447    4486    5031
1958   6125    5080    5030    5001
1959   4484    5469    4578    4393
1960   5122    4798    4449    4595
1961   5280    4667    4480    4808
1962   4845    4485    4994    4158
1963   4943    4865    4843    4277
1964   4888    4569    4387    4367
1965   4628    4368    4495    4053
1966   4219    4325    4624    3867
1967   4549    5124    4270    3874
1968   4464    4765    4216    3959
1969   4446    4342    4509    3743
1970   4653    4886    4548    4078
1971   4523    5299    4379    4361
1972   5310    4594    4232    4002
1973   4474    4478    4423    4004
1974   4668    5424    4351    4526
1975   5853    5760    5308    4998
1976   5091    5111    5488    4387
1977   5365    5124    4866    5324
1978   5604    6072    5543    5229
1979   5934    5194    5620    6237
1980   5865    5811    5503    7153
80% stocks / 20% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 50% of portfolio gains removed, 3.5% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   8321   14347    9048   11945
1922   8465   11470   12374    6094
1923   6482   10307   12299    4522
1924   9740    7348   12544    5585
1925  11271    6901    8724    4948
1926   9739    6727    8245    5242
1927   8972    9288    5021    6172
1928   6975    8535    4013    5113
1929   3649    7435    3938    4209
1930   5849    6519    4203    4458
1931   6424    7412    4812    4819
1932  11317    5902    7688    5758
1933  12211    4524    7715    6099
1934   7695    4981    6025    5581
1935   9207    5173    6143    6107
1936   6344    4922    4990    6128
1937   4130    5786    4389    5175
1938   4547    7370    5785    7131
1939   4448    6298    5852    6422
1940   4974    5805    5696    8752
1941   5645    5923    8556    7344
1942   8615    6406    9420    8390
1943   7886    6912    8962   10039
1944   6662    7102    7915    9406
1945   6083    6504    10736    7513
1946   3887    8130    6979    7364
1947   6379    9436    8409   10072
1948   7466    9914   11201    8860
1949   7860    9137   11053   10883
1950   6677   12445    8610    7891
1951   8450    8348    8887    6755
1952   8476    7707    8978    6176
1953   7624    8990    7171    6845
1954   7784    9165    8837    6492
1955   8100    6626    5991    5269
1956   6144    6491    5152    4861
1957   6146    6883    4900    5785
1958   7812    6270    5882    5703
1959   5099    6695    5033    4615
1960   6113    5508    4865    4757
1961   6412    5179    4881    4877
1962   5611    4741    5489    3973
1963   5808    5389    5234    4131
1964   5575    4876    4505    4139
1965   5039    4602    4465    3826
1966   4407    4534    4461    3724
1967   4788    5608    4041    3825
1968   4691    4997    3942    3857
1969   4712    4420    4186    3669
1970   5073    5010    4458    4197
1971   4965    5326    4397    4517
1972   5784    4357    4236    4044
1973   4618    4211    4487    3964
1974   5032    5517    4810    5069
1975   6697    6490    6657    6415
1976   5167    5639    6736    5174
1977   5501    5845    5781    6880
1978   5938    7721    7156    7186
1979   6618    6434    7273    9340
1980   6698    7373    7182   11395
20% stocks / 80% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 50% of portfolio gains removed, 3.5% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   4629    5347    4915    4913
1922   4677    4601    5329    3830
1923   4361    4458    5313    3855
1924   4801    4154    5438    4241
1925   4982    4419    4464    4216
1926   4621    4583    4611    4396
1927   4580    5272    3832    4630
1928   4331    5260    3921    4498
1929   3686    5107    4052    4153
1930   4672    4658    4309    4318
1931   4851    4846    4530    4476
1932   5768    4197    5062    4783
1933   5637    3980    4994    4249
1934   4607    4262    4681    4037
1935   4724    4512    4692    4141
1936   4190    4500    4401    4247
1937   3657    4834    4551    3784
1938   4126    5168    4401    3945
1939   4447    4905    4213    3911
1940   4554    4747    4173    4156
1941   4591    4455    4402    3800
1942   4979    4978    3962    3959
1943   5216    4591    4159    4132
1944   5170    4382    4142    4138
1945   4949    4383    4601    3841
1946   4073    4520    3845    3556
1947   4860    4115    4130    3949
1948   4704    4514    4484    4058
1949   4798    4545    4571    4407
1950   4511    4922    3997    4030
1951   4645    4410    4089    4082
1952   4450    4473    4273    4236
1953   4467    4508    4079    4287
1954   4550    4589    4446    4252
1955   4633    4128    4129    4022
1956   4324    4031    4024    3989
1957   4220    4144    4109    4259
1958   4518    4086    4304    4318
1959   3883    4341    4152    4089
1960   4145    4160    4049    4318
1961   4180    4192    4188    4518
1962   4088    4233    4398    4261
1963   4120    4368    4376    4330
1964   4212    4255    4169    4394
1965   4207    4107    4400    4105
1966   4033    4198    4552    3818
1967   4328    4547    4420    3660
1968   4218    4438    4427    3663
1969   4216    4215    4590    3525
1970   4275    4684    4415    3646
1971   4340    5012    4118    3811
1972   4774    4774    3915    3670
1973   4402    4687    3885    3642
1974   4436    5060    3719    3782
1975   5083    5009    4092    3838
1976   5007    4490    4267    3676
1977   5288    4288    3978    3927
1978   5274    4528    4211    3818
1979   5222    4078    4230    4039
1980   5009    4403    4122    4321
50% stocks / 50% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 25% of portfolio gains removed, 3.5% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   5264    7177    5727    7044
1922   5297    6040    6732    4926
1923   4607    5662    6973    3942
1924   5573    4906    7127    4576
1925   6024    4789    5779    4447
1926   5612    4860    5714    4738
1927   5430    5847    4477    5208
1928   4703    5915    3845    4783
1929   3667    5410    3890    4149
1930   4681    5149    4228    4307
1931   4926    5505    4612    4496
1932   6388    4896    5685    5013
1933   6672    3900    5486    5160
1934   5157    4130    4758    4642
1935   5603    4372    4747    4875
1936   4462    4314    4250    4972
1937   3774    4650    4103    4536
1938   3934    5162    4772    5075
1939   4037    4792    4641    4827
1940   4236    4517    4590    5626
1941   4321    4334    5399    4968
1942   5336    4704    5706    5105
1943   5069    5112    5550    5649
1944   4789    5003    5247    5480
1945   4509    4851    6167    4942
1946   3511    5044    4642    4715
1947   4557    5510    4933    5562
1948   5105    5714    5822    5375
1949   5264    5600    5871    6070
1950   4704    6358    5029    5267
1951   5126    5231    5307    4804
1952   5303    4953    5438    4782
1953   5086    5276    4882    5008
1954   5191    5379    5476    5005
1955   5059    4635    4710    4388
1956   4437    4615    4257    4158
1957   4409    4741    4225    4553
1958   4954    4590    4638    4560
1959   4097    4725    4327    4072
1960   4410    4446    4159    4205
1961   4600    4292    4188    4402
1962   4349    4166    4433    4031
1963   4407    4407    4325    4110
1964   4351    4264    4031    4175
1965   4201    4056    4087    3981
1966   3960    3995    4160    3802
1967   4140    4432    4034    3864
1968   4036    4192    3981    3957
1969   4024    3908    4137    3773
1970   4158    4244    4269    4004
1971   4110    4548    4149    4265
1972   4444    4222    4062    4000
1973   3938    4032    4144    3895
1974   4037    4570    4151    4236
1975   4768    5009    4784    4684
1976   4388    4542    4898    4158
1977   4545    4509    4497    4771
1978   4657    5172    4855    4946
1979   4750    4628    4828    5611
1980   4767    4893    4817    6413
80% stocks / 20% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 25% of portfolio gains removed, 3.5% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   6342   10989    7313   10840
1922   6459    8824    9495    6501
1923   5397    7717    9866    4408
1924   7179    6198   10067    5306
1925   8117    5555    7690    4951
1926   7234    5468    7254    5290
1927   6759    7027    5157    6074
1928   5367    6928    3981    5174
1929   3649    5916    3891    4197
1930   4883    5705    4214    4410
1931   5244    6347    4771    4767
1932   7906    5764    6881    5750
1933   8788    4228    6750    6251
1934   6110    4388    5296    5426
1935   7022    4676    5401    5847
1936   5013    4503    4558    5770
1937   3879    4894    4151    5073
1938   4146    5897    5320    6573
1939   4072    5254    5288    5929
1940   4397    4903    5162    7566
1941   4698    4885    6924    6748
1942   6455    5381    8274    7184
1943   6018    5964    7737    8444
1944   5299    5990    6898    7837
1945   4883    5591    8660    6731
1946   3538    6073    5900    6486
1947   5036    7578    6594    8678
1948   6013    7863    8582    7988
1949   6264    7438    8498    9436
1950   5376    9133    7038    7578
1951   6246    6768    7459    6207
1952   6594    6037    7534    5825
1953   6107    6768    6286    6295
1954   6242    6908    7416    6267
1955   5978    5500    5657    5008
1956   4885    5472    4748    4583
1957   4888    5702    4601    5185
1958   5862    5436    5334    5160
1959   4426    5502    4722    4248
1960   4934    4990    4469    4367
1961   5259    4658    4485    4523
1962   4808    4358    4768    3961
1963   4926    4758    4605    4071
1964   4751    4496    4108    4093
1965   4441    4201    4088    3858
1966   4078    4114    4073    3711
1967   4295    4715    3912    3886
1968   4147    4338    3826    3959
1969   4171    3942    3967    3767
1970   4395    4300    4260    4189
1971   4357    4551    4200    4519
1972   4686    4077    4125    4132
1973   3977    3874    4243    3973
1974   4193    4646    4539    4763
1975   5204    5547    5821    5912
1976   4432    4883    5826    4787
1977   4609    4973    5203    6001
1978   4837    6295    6054    6766
1979   5112    5510    6024    8380
1980   5272    5931    6062   10344
20% stocks / 80% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 25% of portfolio gains removed, 3.5% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   4401    4858    4558    4682
1922   4267    4250    4604    3905
1923   4023    4109    4646    3761
1924   4300    3999    4759    4075
1925   4355    4029    4185    4053
1926   4261    4194    4330    4228
1927   4221    4542    3892    4363
1928   4039    4626    3839    4303
1929   3686    4491    3906    4051
1930   4311    4401    4196    4223
1931   4467    4570    4393    4369
1932   4943    4251    4727    4586
1933   4775    3822    4569    4139
1934   4213    3983    4331    3900
1935   4309    4185    4339    3996
1936   3906    4158    4127    4039
1937   3657    4339    4205    3794
1938   3934    4623    4204    3906
1939   4127    4481    4038    3874
1940   4183    4336    3995    4020
1941   4085    4046    4034    3701
1942   4339    4378    3925    3792
1943   4539    4294    3981    3950
1944   4547    4116    3987    3950
1945   4407    4113    4248    3792
1946   3710    3967    3616    3480
1947   4126    3954    3816    3799
1948   4306    4166    4139    3953
1949   4388    4259    4235    4208
1950   4080    4310    3793    3905
1951   4109    4085    3929    3930
1952   4147    4101    4063    4060
1953   4138    4121    3936    4110
1954   4217    4196    4174    4130
1955   4199    3931    3998    3919
1956   3961    3869    3857    3857
1957   3902    3913    3907    4013
1958   4102    3919    4087    4077
1959   3777    4036    3981    3905
1960   3900    3972    3900    4020
1961   3968    3976    3985    4185
1962   3900    3987    4092    4053
1963   3916    4088    4080    4080
1964   3959    4037    3960    4133
1965   3956    3926    4053    3967
1966   3848    3940    4156    3753
1967   4004    4150    4133    3668
1968   3928    4082    4087    3685
1969   3902    3933    4168    3570
1970   3975    4188    4134    3651
1971   4019    4441    3956    3802
1972   4236    4345    3814    3694
1973   3993    4158    3762    3597
1974   3979    4380    3663    3662
1975   4381    4497    3921    3789
1976   4361    4168    4045    3642
1977   4524    4009    3859    3793
1978   4519    4147    3951    3766
1979   4410    3851    3924    3854
1980   4276    3996    3901    4080
Tables for 4.0% withdrawal rates follow.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

Here are tables of 5-year moving averages of withdrawal amounts based on an initial $100000 balance, 4.0% withdrawal rate. All amounts are in terms of real dollars (i.e., after adjusting for inflation).

50% stocks / 50% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 50% of portfolio gains removed, 4.0% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   6731    9154    7098    7885
1922   6843    7722    8735    5052
1923   5671    7334    8700    4368
1924   7397    5896    8914    5078
1925   8172    6045    6676    4808
1926   7320    6129    6637    5057
1927   7083    7735    4731    5570
1928   6101    7411    4270    5044
1929   4165    6857    4283    4465
1930   5866    6023    4628    4739
1931   6240    6525    5008    5007
1932   8890    5322    6474    5306
1933   9123    4459    6418    5309
1934   6518    4892    5479    4925
1935   7207    5108    5506    5295
1936   5655    5006    4823    5427
1937   4344    5613    4622    4725
1938   4577    6425    5293    5576
1939   4803    5754    5180    5341
1940   5057    5425    5194    6360
1941   5336    5263    6559    5501
1942   7003    5700    6458    5919
1943   6578    6002    6455    6615
1944   6104    5898    6097    6456
1945   5648    5786    7497    5524
1946   4093    6567    5484    5297
1947   5816    6662    6115    6388
1948   6315    7096    7325    6054
1949   6576    6850    7372    6938
1950   5904    8380    6039    5697
1951   6743    6407    6227    5403
1952   6701    6225    6423    5290
1953   6352    6781    5640    5541
1954   6495    6930    6467    5407
1955   6722    5574    5194    4833
1956   5630    5462    4836    4616
1957   5576    5710    4748    5194
1958   6472    5404    5255    5242
1959   4855    5724    4825    4722
1960   5467    5092    4739    4816
1961   5631    5005    4782    4964
1962   5205    4800    5231    4348
1963   5313    5147    5138    4480
1964   5242    4864    4751    4439
1965   4981    4699    4768    4231
1966   4618    4655    4834    4113
1967   4899    5416    4506    4066
1968   4809    5098    4460    4061
1969   4792    4718    4640    3955
1970   5011    5197    4727    4190
1971   4928    5572    4618    4391
1972   5671    4878    4425    4172
1973   4864    4753    4535    4071
1974   5057    5616    4566    4609
1975   6214    5996    5456    5110
1976   5429    5386    5620    4590
1977   5699    5360    5090    5337
1978   5944    6250    5708    5315
1979   6238    5440    5791    6202
1980   6177    6028    5686    7091
80% stocks / 20% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 50% of portfolio gains removed, 4.0% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   8694   14493    9314   11862
1922   8793   11692   12357    6339
1923   6793   10600   12234    4871
1924  10034    7750   12519    5798
1925  11549    7209    8788    5172
1926  10081    7072    8348    5377
1927   9371    9456    5332    6112
1928   7420    8657    4407    5076
1929   4147    7573    4203    4338
1930   6266    6722    4506    4694
1931   6870    7650    5029    5144
1932  11658    6298    7750    5849
1933  12505    4933    7802    6104
1934   8058    5297    6223    5501
1935   9537    5509    6337    6148
1936   6717    5195    5224    5874
1937   4566    5959    4610    4956
1938   4998    7573    5891    7043
1939   4876    6587    5880    6441
1940   5355    6074    5827    8393
1941   5954    6160    8496    7297
1942   8897    6619    9420    8367
1943   8233    7090    9002    9930
1944   7013    7289    8040    9326
1945   6449    6746   10608    7496
1946   4200    8225    7063    7291
1947   6661    9577    8514   10016
1948   7773   10097   11268    8954
1949   8185    9400   11158   10827
1950   7015   12546    8739    7975
1951   8749    8587    8982    6929
1952   8790    7950    9092    6361
1953   7962    9207    7380    6950
1954   8153    9423    8952    6642
1955   8447    6877    6188    5475
1956   6502    6711    5412    5080
1957   6500    7108    5148    5898
1958   8148    6570    6084    5912
1959   5465    6924    5259    4926
1960   6447    5785    5137    4964
1961   6753    5506    5166    5028
1962   5962    5051    5694    4166
1963   6172    5660    5509    4336
1964   5924    5159    4857    4191
1965   5389    4923    4728    4036
1966   4804    4855    4670    3980
1967   5137    5881    4276    4002
1968   5033    5316    4183    3937
1969   5051    4786    4295    3824
1970   5426    5313    4621    4240
1971   5368    5594    4616    4422
1972   6137    4636    4393    4134
1973   5001    4480    4515    3910
1974   5417    5687    4961    5037
1975   7054    6703    6728    6417
1976   5505    5900    6773    5294
1977   5831    6049    5941    6726
1978   6276    7849    7239    7134
1979   6913    6644    7372    9106
1980   7001    7549    7296   11078
20% stocks / 80% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 50% of portfolio gains removed, 4.0% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   5064    5723    5327    5247
1922   5036    4985    5581    4265
1923   4724    4836    5523    4215
1924   5156    4610    5665    4533
1925   5321    4803    4790    4433
1926   5039    4993    4960    4564
1927   5000    5589    4283    4719
1928   4782    5545    4319    4621
1929   4183    5396    4380    4341
1930   5132    5061    4650    4599
1931   5333    5272    4844    4798
1932   6180    4706    5244    4985
1933   5980    4388    5168    4519
1934   5002    4619    4851    4372
1935   5135    4829    4935    4488
1936   4626    4776    4699    4466
1937   4152    5064    4792    4134
1938   4570    5416    4723    4308
1939   4853    5154    4595    4277
1940   4916    5048    4553    4376
1941   4896    4774    4641    4025
1942   5295    5266    4245    4236
1943   5544    4944    4413    4387
1944   5499    4761    4431    4402
1945   5319    4766    4786    4113
1946   4427    4740    4092    3778
1947   5203    4387    4388    4152
1948   5058    4801    4773    4350
1949   5179    4891    4881    4607
1950   4860    5167    4266    4250
1951   5010    4732    4363    4327
1952   4806    4808    4545    4477
1953   4832    4834    4403    4481
1954   4931    4931    4696    4476
1955   5014    4467    4414    4291
1956   4701    4365    4313    4193
1957   4607    4446    4382    4439
1958   4878    4440    4550    4561
1959   4288    4632    4416    4403
1960   4503    4478    4357    4527
1961   4558    4531    4428    4733
1962   4464    4553    4638    4457
1963   4498    4653    4666    4541
1964   4572    4557    4520    4545
1965   4563    4443    4661    4352
1966   4418    4480    4811    4113
1967   4664    4825    4666    3970
1968   4566    4751    4674    3955
1969   4539    4532    4778    3854
1970   4605    4969    4643    3930
1971   4675    5284    4415    4015
1972   5111    5039    4175    3954
1973   4747    4949    4094    3832
1974   4758    5301    3992    3976
1975   5421    5272    4325    4133
1976   5346    4787    4481    4036
1977   5601    4563    4262    4150
1978   5616    4754    4449    4035
1979   5523    4355    4466    4165
1980   5329    4656    4364    4458
50% stocks / 50% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 25% of portfolio gains removed, 4.0% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   5750    7545    6150    7268
1922   5709    6415    7001    5272
1923   5011    6049    7185    4353
1924   5976    5356    7366    4918
1925   6407    5193    6050    4770
1926   6036    5295    6019    5025
1927   5879    6205    4870    5404
1928   5179    6236    4293    4992
1929   4165    5739    4268    4432
1930   5168    5524    4628    4678
1931   5434    5905    4976    4878
1932   6849    5362    5978    5273
1933   7061    4348    5761    5338
1934   5579    4529    5043    4827
1935   6012    4776    5053    5112
1936   4895    4683    4571    5110
1937   4241    4980    4418    4684
1938   4413    5511    5026    5265
1939   4504    5143    4901    5079
1940   4667    4869    4884    5727
1941   4694    4661    5606    5173
1942   5701    5027    5933    5339
1943   5480    5421    5806    5862
1944   5200    5321    5550    5709
1945   4923    5202    6376    5193
1946   3854    5314    4903    4893
1947   4914    5802    5221    5755
1948   5493    6046    6118    5659
1949   5670    5981    6191    6293
1950   5097    6647    5329    5504
1951   5516    5588    5585    5106
1952   5708    5327    5732    5092
1953   5497    5638    5225    5270
1954   5620    5760    5777    5286
1955   5488    5010    5029    4713
1956   4861    4956    4610    4484
1957   4830    5083    4569    4829
1958   5364    4977    4958    4871
1959   4520    5078    4655    4464
1960   4820    4810    4521    4536
1961   5013    4690    4560    4684
1962   4765    4554    4767    4323
1963   4827    4769    4698    4410
1964   4767    4631    4449    4402
1965   4614    4448    4453    4234
1966   4394    4385    4478    4101
1967   4549    4800    4359    4122
1968   4440    4588    4309    4143
1969   4422    4323    4401    4028
1970   4564    4612    4544    4240
1971   4548    4891    4474    4440
1972   4863    4566    4364    4256
1973   4340    4380    4376    4099
1974   4435    4871    4424    4449
1975   5162    5331    5048    4918
1976   4786    4877    5146    4461
1977   4935    4828    4797    4956
1978   5047    5451    5125    5139
1979   5113    4938    5089    5722
1980   5136    5199    5089    6488
80% stocks / 20% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 25% of portfolio gains removed, 4.0% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   6798   11266    7693   10925
1922   6861    9138    9677    6787
1923   5776    8073    9977    4801
1924   7555    6630   10217    5624
1925   8465    5941    7893    5251
1926   7645    5886    7493    5538
1927   7202    7346    5519    6192
1928   5841    7197    4418    5311
1929   4147    6198    4255    4416
1930   5359    6034    4596    4730
1931   5744    6705    5103    5076
1932   8348    6211    7112    5965
1933   9161    4671    6977    6367
1934   6522    4781    5579    5516
1935   7423    5071    5680    6012
1936   5442    4858    4865    5757
1937   4345    5192    4457    5033
1938   4624    6217    5550    6591
1939   4537    5621    5474    6035
1940   4824    5263    5402    7427
1941   5064    5194    7038    6823
1942   6810    5686    8393    7318
1943   6422    6249    7901    8513
1944   5708    6278    7125    7934
1945   5298    5918    8739    6867
1946   3897    6294    6086    6538
1947   5386    7815    6827    8743
1948   6393    8148    8795    8179
1949   6662    7783    8746    9545
1950   5765    9370    7283    7745
1951   6624    7093    7672    6464
1952   6984    6387    7762    6104
1953   6509    7097    6586    6517
1954   6666    7265    7668    6513
1955   6398    5851    5943    5307
1956   5303    5787    5082    4887
1957   5304    6018    4933    5425
1958   6267    5807    5636    5444
1959   4845    5836    5033    4628
1960   5338    5340    4818    4688
1961   5666    5048    4846    4801
1962   5218    4742    5082    4255
1963   5344    5114    4966    4372
1964   5164    4856    4519    4307
1965   4851    4587    4448    4108
1966   4510    4499    4388    4010
1967   4703    5072    4236    4101
1968   4549    4725    4153    4070
1969   4566    4355    4217    3960
1970   4800    4681    4511    4350
1971   4794    4909    4500    4593
1972   5102    4434    4388    4311
1973   4397    4217    4410    4082
1974   4589    4934    4773    4890
1975   5597    5852    6031    6062
1976   4830    5202    6006    5029
1977   4996    5269    5453    6065
1978   5225    6537    6264    6838
1979   5471    5793    6240    8321
1980   5636    6209    6291   10194
20% stocks / 80% TIPS at 2.0% interest, 25% of portfolio gains removed, 4.0% withdrawal rate.
Year, 5-year average withdrawal ending in year 5, ..in year 10, ..in year 15, ..in year 20

Code: Select all

1921   4886    5298    5032    5088
1922   4672    4678    4966    4344
1923   4437    4526    4960    4168
1924   4719    4464    5091    4438
1925   4757    4457    4563    4362
1926   4716    4649    4735    4514
1927   4676    4946    4349    4600
1928   4516    5002    4281    4535
1929   4183    4868    4297    4289
1930   4809    4854    4579    4551
1931   4985    5044    4765    4733
1932   5423    4768    5047    4914
1933   5181    4265    4850    4442
1934   4645    4390    4612    4248
1935   4753    4571    4666    4356
1936   4367    4516    4489    4329
1937   4152    4675    4544    4136
1938   4408    4967    4559    4281
1939   4574    4824    4432    4251
1940   4599    4706    4385    4311
1941   4447    4411    4341    4000
1942   4715    4736    4257    4121
1943   4931    4671    4335    4291
1944   4942    4526    4348    4301
1945   4826    4527    4554    4149
1946   4092    4276    3927    3739
1947   4522    4293    4145    4079
1948   4717    4545    4500    4301
1949   4835    4668    4619    4511
1950   4477    4645    4137    4194
1951   4530    4468    4258    4244
1952   4565    4501    4409    4385
1953   4558    4513    4314    4396
1954   4650    4601    4517    4433
1955   4617    4337    4346    4253
1956   4391    4242    4224    4146
1957   4332    4278    4256    4280
1958   4518    4321    4413    4370
1959   4221    4406    4321    4258
1960   4317    4347    4252    4326
1961   4388    4373    4315    4476
1962   4321    4373    4408    4338
1963   4339    4447    4403    4389
1964   4379    4405    4326    4391
1965   4371    4294    4390    4265
1966   4268    4289    4470    4093
1967   4397    4491    4438    3988
1968   4322    4422    4421    3974
1969   4286    4284    4462    3896
1970   4364    4526    4439    3959
1971   4415    4777    4310    4070
1972   4626    4675    4159    4019
1973   4364    4497    4056    3883
1974   4344    4689    3979    3949
1975   4762    4818    4235    4104
1976   4746    4506    4354    4021
1977   4899    4336    4197    4092
1978   4889    4465    4255    4051
1979   4763    4185    4198    4097
1980   4637    4328    4186    4318
Remember that some of these portfolios fail between 20 and 30 years.

Have fun.

John R.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

I recommend looking at the years 1929, 1937, 1966 and 1967 for stressful conditions.

Look at 1942 and 1958 for typical conditions.

Look at 1933 since it starts out the worst (for the initial comparison using the 50% stock / 50% TIPS portfolio with 50% of gains removed and a 3.5% withdrawal rate). Look at 1946 since it starts out the best (under the same circumstances).

I recommend comparing removing 50% of gains from a 50% stocks / 50% TIPS portfolio with removing 25% of gains from an 80% stocks / 20% TIPS portfolio. Typically, they produce similar results except that the 80% stock portfolio occasionally does much better at the end (i.e., at the 20-year point in this data set). Years that end up much better with the 80% stock allocation at the 20-year point include 1933, 1942 and 1946. [In those years 80% stock portfolios also had much better 30-year portfolio balances.]

I recommend making the same comparisons with the balances as well. [Other years may seem better, but I recommend sticking with the same years throughout all parts of an examination.] Results are similar with the balances as well. However, there were failures with 50% of gains removed from an 80% stock portfolio at a 3.5% withdrawal rate [but not from a 50% stock portfolio or a 20% stock portfolio at a 3.5% withdrawal rate].

At a 4.0% withdrawal rate, there were many failures. With 50% stocks and 50% of gains removed, there were 9 failures at year 30. With 80% stocks and 50% of gains removed, there were 17 failures at year 30 and 7 failures at year 25. With 20% stocks and 50% of gains removed, there were 2 failures at year 30.

At a 4.0% withdrawal rate, with 25% of gains removed, there were 2 failures at year 30 with 50% stocks, 8 failures at year 30 with 80% stocks (and 1 failure at year 25) but no failures with 20% stocks.

Roughly speaking, an 80% stock portfolio with 25% of gains removed is equivalent to a 50% stock portfolio with 50% of gains removed. The 80% stock portfolio ends better in some sequences that are especially favorable for stock market investments.

Have fun.

John R.
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