Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates
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JWR1945
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Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
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by JWR1945 » Tue Mar 16, 2004 10:10 am
Here are some tables of annualized real rates of returns for the S&P500 index after 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years.
This is for 100% stocks.
Dividends are reinvested. Expenses are 0.20%. I have listed P/E10 as well.
Code: Select all
Year PE10 1 5 10 15 20 25 30
1871 13.3 12.92 9.40 12.47 10.18 8.40 7.79 8.31
1872 14.5 8.40 3.80 10.34 10.06 8.96 7.51 8.40
1873 15.3 2.61 5.07 10.04 9.10 8.43 7.79 8.05
1874 13.9 12.20 9.86 10.10 9.46 8.02 8.68 7.49
1875 13.6 11.19 11.60 8.73 9.44 7.79 7.66 7.93
1876 13.3 (13.15) 15.63 10.57 8.07 7.39 8.09 8.21
1877 10.6 15.21 17.30 13.33 10.74 8.46 9.34 8.59
1878 9.7 28.22 15.23 11.17 9.57 8.48 8.65 7.26
1879 10.7 21.35 10.33 9.25 7.40 8.37 7.00 7.34
1880 15.3 32.75 5.94 8.37 6.55 6.70 7.21 6.83
1881 18.5 (6.70) 5.74 4.47 4.78 6.29 6.78 5.95
1882 15.7 5.43 9.49 7.60 5.67 7.44 6.93 6.35
1883 15.3 3.16 7.26 6.84 6.32 7.07 5.73 6.15
1884 14.4 (0.94) 8.20 5.98 7.74 6.21 6.78 5.81
1885 13.1 31.50 10.86 6.86 6.95 7.53 7.00 5.62
1886 16.7 11.07 3.22 4.30 6.47 7.05 6.00 5.45
1887 17.5 (4.89) 5.73 3.80 6.76 6.30 5.74 4.95
1888 15.4 7.75 6.42 5.86 7.00 5.35 5.93 3.92
1889 15.8 11.87 3.81 7.52 5.56 6.43 5.34 3.60
1890 17.2 (7.98) 3.00 5.05 6.44 6.06 4.60 3.25
1891 15.4 25.27 5.39 8.13 8.35 6.70 5.91 3.13
1892 19.0 (1.76) 1.91 7.28 6.49 5.74 4.80 3.05
1893 17.7 (4.84) 5.30 7.29 5.00 5.81 3.43 3.97
1894 15.7 7.56 11.35 6.44 7.32 5.72 3.56 4.21
1895 16.5 3.20 7.14 8.20 7.10 5.01 3.30 4.73
1896 16.6 5.91 10.95 9.87 7.15 6.04 2.69 5.25
1897 17.0 15.72 12.93 8.85 7.04 5.53 3.28 5.49
1898 19.2 25.84 9.33 4.85 5.98 2.96 3.70 6.08
1899 22.9 (11.30) 1.74 5.36 3.91 1.70 2.84 6.62
1900 18.7 22.89 9.27 7.08 4.30 2.37 4.25 6.74
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
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by JWR1945 » Tue Mar 16, 2004 3:28 pm
Code: Select all
Year PE10 1 5 10 15 20 25 30
1901 21.0 15.71 8.79 5.29 4.45 0.72 4.15 5.45
1902 22.3 (1.59) 4.92 4.22 3.18 1.00 4.07 3.61
1903 20.3 (12.16) 0.56 4.35 0.93 2.34 5.44 3.75
1904 15.9 26.72 9.11 5.01 1.69 3.11 7.63 5.59
1905 18.5 20.24 4.94 1.91 0.17 3.03 6.24 4.39
1906 20.1 (3.46) 1.91 2.34 (1.83) 3.02 4.80 5.15
1907 17.2 (20.42) 3.52 2.31 (0.27) 3.86 3.35 6.17
1908 11.9 32.09 8.28 1.11 2.95 6.70 4.39 5.75
1909 14.8 4.32 1.07 (1.83) 1.19 7.26 4.90 5.29
1910 14.5 3.83 (1.04) (2.15) 2.39 6.54 4.25 5.25
1911 14.0 4.41 2.78 (3.65) 3.39 5.53 5.81 4.81
1912 13.8 (0.35) 1.12 (2.12) 3.97 3.31 6.70 4.00
1913 13.1 (6.43) (5.59) 0.38 6.17 3.44 5.25 4.35
1914 11.6 (6.14) (4.65) 1.25 9.40 5.88 6.16 5.19
1915 10.4 25.47 (3.23) 4.17 9.23 5.65 6.59 5.92
1916 12.5 (3.72) (9.68) 3.71 6.47 6.58 5.22 6.16
1917 11.0 (29.30) (5.25) 5.40 4.02 8.12 4.56 5.26
1918 6.6 (1.69) 6.72 12.59 6.64 8.14 6.46 6.27
1919 6.1 1.08 7.51 17.19 9.64 9.04 7.27 6.61
1920 6.0 (11.16) 12.14 16.04 8.78 9.20 7.86 7.19
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
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by JWR1945 » Tue Mar 16, 2004 3:44 pm
Code: Select all
Year PE10 1 5 10 15 20 25 30
1921 5.1 22.33 19.08 15.60 12.63 9.31 9.64 8.34
1922 6.3 28.17 17.29 9.04 13.02 7.21 7.53 8.11
1923 8.2 1.99 18.79 6.60 8.62 6.40 6.18 7.66
1924 8.1 24.81 27.74 10.73 9.56 7.22 6.43 7.64
1925 9.7 19.96 20.08 7.14 8.24 6.81 6.23 8.18
1926 11.3 13.44 12.22 9.53 6.24 7.40 6.32 8.39
1927 13.2 36.54 1.37 10.94 4.04 5.22 6.36 8.06
1928 18.8 46.68 (4.33) 3.87 2.56 3.25 5.56 6.62
1929 27.1 (8.38) (4.02) 1.47 1.14 1.68 4.02 6.36
1930 22.3 (14.50) (4.40) 2.76 2.72 3.02 5.95 6.88
1931 16.7 (31.76) 6.92 3.37 5.85 4.89 7.64 7.59
1932 9.3 2.23 21.42 5.40 6.54 7.65 9.45 9.56
1933 8.7 49.07 12.78 6.19 5.90 8.19 8.95 9.33
1934 13.0 (10.19) 7.27 3.82 3.66 6.13 8.56 8.49
1935 11.5 49.58 10.46 6.48 5.62 8.71 9.29 9.36
1936 17.1 28.92 (0.06) 5.31 4.22 7.82 7.72 8.21
1937 21.6 (29.33) (8.50) (0.20) 3.41 6.64 7.33 6.95
1938 13.5 16.03 (0.01) 2.62 6.70 8.02 8.65 8.58
1939 15.6 4.00 0.48 1.90 5.76 8.89 8.74 8.24
1940 16.4 (9.33) 2.64 3.28 8.13 9.00 9.15 7.58
1941 13.9 (17.07) 10.98 6.44 10.59 9.76 9.95 7.97
1942 10.1 10.18 8.85 9.94 12.23 11.70 10.34 8.98
1943 10.2 18.86 5.32 10.22 10.83 10.93 10.39 9.07
1944 11.1 15.71 3.35 8.50 11.85 10.91 9.86 7.52
1945 12.0 33.99 3.92 10.98 11.21 10.83 8.59 5.83
1946 15.6 (24.73) 2.07 10.39 9.36 9.69 7.38 5.67
1947 11.5 (6.58) 11.04 13.95 12.66 10.72 9.01 6.87
1948 10.4 8.15 15.34 13.70 12.87 11.69 9.84 6.58
1949 10.2 18.95 13.91 16.35 13.54 11.55 8.37 6.49
1950 10.7 22.49 18.51 15.05 13.24 9.79 6.21 5.95
Last edited by
JWR1945 on Sat Mar 27, 2004 9:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Tue Mar 16, 2004 4:04 pm
Code: Select all
Year PE10 1 5 10 15 20 25 30
1951 11.9 14.69 19.38 13.20 12.36 8.75 6.41 5.60
1952 12.5 12.96 16.94 13.48 10.61 8.51 6.05 4.61
1953 13.0 1.62 12.08 11.65 10.50 8.51 4.91 4.91
1954 12.0 44.96 18.85 13.36 10.77 7.03 5.07 5.33
1955 16.0 27.07 11.68 10.69 7.03 3.34 3.60 4.16
1956 18.3 3.42 7.33 9.00 5.42 3.39 3.05 3.97
1957 16.7 (8.65) 10.12 7.57 5.83 3.49 2.31 4.71
1958 13.8 36.24 11.22 9.72 7.34 3.19 3.53 4.82
1959 18.0 6.24 8.13 6.95 3.36 1.88 2.82 4.13
1960 18.3 4.18 9.71 4.77 0.70 1.67 2.72 4.44
1961 18.5 17.56 10.70 4.48 2.11 2.00 3.31 4.08
1962 21.2 (4.00) 5.08 3.75 1.37 0.44 3.66 4.36
1963 19.3 18.32 8.24 5.45 0.64 1.69 3.58 4.63
1964 21.6 14.23 5.78 1.05 (0.12) 1.53 3.35 4.32
1965 23.3 8.98 0.06 (3.52) (0.88) 1.04 3.42 3.80
1966 24.1 (9.42) (1.39) (1.93) (0.75) 1.54 2.81 4.43
1967 20.4 11.33 2.45 (0.43) (1.06) 3.31 4.21 5.49
1968 21.5 5.48 2.74 (2.96) (0.40) 2.45 3.92 5.90
1969 21.2 (13.49) (3.46) (2.95) 0.15 2.75 4.04 6.60
1970 17.1 1.30 (6.98) (1.34) 1.37 4.28 4.57 7.52
1971 16.5 9.66 (2.46) (0.42) 2.53 3.88 5.63 7.17
1972 17.3 12.93 (3.23) (2.76) 3.60 4.66 6.11 6.27
1973 18.7 (22.71) (8.34) (1.93) 2.35 4.22 6.54
1974 13.5 (28.15) (2.44) 2.01 4.91 6.00 8.73
1975 8.9 28.39 4.63 5.82 8.32 7.67 10.68
1976 11.2 5.39 1.66 5.12 6.09 7.76 9.21
1977 11.4 (13.90) (2.29) 7.19 7.43 8.58 8.28
1978 9.2 5.58 4.93 8.16 8.78 10.63
1979 9.3 1.95 6.66 8.79 8.97 11.72
1980 8.9 11.19 7.01 10.22 8.70 12.25
Notice that there have been several instances with negative overall real returns (annualized, with dividends reinvested) lasting 15 years. Notice that throughout most of the 1960s, the 20-year real return was less than 3% (annualized, with dividends reinvested).
Have fun.
John R.
Last edited by
JWR1945 on Sat Mar 27, 2004 9:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
BenSolar
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Posts: 242 Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2002 5:46 am
Location: Western NC
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by BenSolar » Wed Mar 17, 2004 5:34 am
"Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not; remember that what you now have was once among the things only hoped for." - Epicurus