The HDBR50 portfolio consisted of 50% stocks and 50% commercial paper. The HDBR80 portfolio consisted of 80% stocks and 20% commercial paper.
Both portfolios were re-balanced annually. The Historical Database Rates (as a percentage of the portfolio's initial balance) are shown under HDBR50 and HDBR80. All portfolios survived for 30 years at the withdrawal rates in the tables. At a withdrawal rate of 0.1% more than what is listed they would have failed. Withdrawal amounts were adjusted each year to match inflation. That is, the real dollar buying power remained constant. Inflation was measured by CPI-U. The expense ratio was 0.20%. The initial balance was set at $100000 to keep the effects of rounding and truncation errors to a minimum. All interest and dividends were reinvested. Other values were left at their default settings.
The values of P/E10 were taken from the calculator. They are identical to Professor Shiller's numbers internally, but they are rounded to a single decimal value for the table. The source of P/E10 values from 1871-1880 was not explained.
These values differ somewhat from the earlier results that I got from FIRECalc. That is due, in part, to slight differences in how withdrawal amounts are applied.
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Year P/E10 HDBR50 HDBR80
1871 13.3 9.3 9.4
1872 14.5 9.3 9.3
1873 15.3 8.8 8.7
1874 13.9 8.7 8.8
1875 13.6 8.4 8.6
1876 13.3 8.7 9.0
1877 10.6 8.3 9.1
1878 9.7 7.9 9.0
1879 10.7 9.3 10.4
1880 15.3 7.5 7.7
1881 18.5 7.5 7.3
1882 15.7 7.6 7.5
1883 15.3 7.2 7.1
1884 14.4 6.8 6.9
1885 13.1 7.2 7.7
1886 16.7 6.6 6.7
1887 17.5 6.6 6.7
1888 15.4 6.5 6.7
1889 15.8 6.2 6.4
1890 17.2 6.2 6.4
1891 15.4 6.0 6.5
1892 19.0 6.1 6.3
1893 17.7 5.1 5.4
1894 15.7 5.4 6.2
1895 16.5 5.5 6.3
1896 16.6 5.3 6.1
1897 17.0 5.4 6.4
1898 19.2 5.1 5.9
1899 22.9 5.4 5.9
1900 18.7 5.3 5.8
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Year P/E10 HDBR50 HDBR80
1901 21.0 5.0 5.3
1902 22.3 5.1 5.2
1903 20.3 4.7 4.8
1904 15.9 5.3 5.9
1905 18.5 4.7 4.9
1906 20.1 4.5 4.5
1907 17.2 4.4 4.5
1908 11.9 5.2 5.8
1909 14.8 5.0 5.2
1910 14.5 4.3 4.4
1911 14.0 4.4 4.6
1912 13.8 4.7 4.9
1913 13.1 4.6 4.9
1914 11.6 4.8 5.3
1915 10.4 5.2 5.9
1916 12.5 5.2 5.5
1917 11.0 6.1 6.4
1918 6.6 7.9 9.1
1919 6.1 8.9 10.0
1920 6.0 8.3 9.3
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Year P/E10 HDBR50 HDBR80
1921 5.1 8.1 9.8
1922 6.3 8.0 9.9
1923 8.2 7.5 8.9
1924 8.1 7.6 9.2
1925 9.7 7.3 8.5
1926 11.3 6.6 7.5
1927 13.2 6.4 7.2
1928 18.8 5.5 5.8
1929 27.1 4.5 4.4
1930 22.3 4.4 4.5
1931 16.7 4.5 5.0
1932 9.3 5.1 6.9
1933 8.7 5.7 8.0
1934 13.0 4.8 6.2
1935 11.5 5.2 7.1
1936 17.1 4.3 5.4
1937 21.6 3.9 4.5
1938 13.5 4.6 6.0
1939 15.6 4.4 5.6
1940 16.4 4.5 5.8
1941 13.9 5.4 7.3
1942 10.1 6.2 9.0
1943 10.2 6.1 8.7
1944 11.1 5.9 8.1
1945 12.0 5.7 7.7
1946 15.6 5.9 7.4
1947 11.5 7.1 9.5
1948 10.4 7.4 10.2
1949 10.2 7.3 10.0
1950 10.7 7.6 10.3
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Year P/E10 HDBR50 HDBR80
1951 11.9 7.1 9.2
1952 12.5 6.7 8.5
1953 13.0 6.5 8.2
1954 12.0 6.6 8.4
1955 16.0 5.6 6.6
1956 18.3 5.2 5.7
1957 16.7 5.3 5.9
1958 13.8 5.7 6.5
1959 18.0 4.9 5.2
1960 18.3 4.9 5.1
1961 18.5 4.8 5.1
1962 21.2 4.6 4.6
1963 19.3 4.8 4.9
1964 21.6 4.4 4.4
1965 23.3 4.2 4.0
1966 24.1 4.1 3.9
1967 20.4 4.4 4.4
1968 21.5 4.3 4.1
1969 21.2 4.3 4.1
1970 17.1 4.7 4.8
1971 16.5 4.8 4.8
1972 17.3 4.7 4.6
1973 18.7 4.7 4.6
1974 13.5 5.6 5.9
1975 8.9 6.7 7.8
1976 11.2 6.0 6.6
1977 11.4 6.2 6.6
1978 9.2 7.0 7.9
1979 9.3 7.3 8.2
1980 8.9 7.4 8.2
John R.