Hello Hocus,Question: "If you will clearly state (in 100 words or less) what progress you have made in swr analysis"
Answer posted by hocus on: Mon Sep 22, 2003 6:49 am
We have proven beyond any reasonable doubt that the conventional methodology is invalid. We have put forward for the FIRE community's consideration three reasonable analyses indicating that the SWR at the top of the bubble was somewhere near 2 percent, not anything close to the 4 percent number that had been previously claimed. I have set up a board where further research can be safely conducted, and I have begun formulating plans for publicizing the results we have achieved thus far. I have indentified a number of experts who I believe can help us with this effort, and have prepared an outline of a report that I will write that I believe will be helpful in winning their agreement to appear at the SWR board and discuss their thoughts on the SWR matter with that board community (which I hope to grow much larger next year).
Hate to say it, I think you made a mistake. (Sorry - I could not help myself given all the recent posts) In all seriousness, at the peak of the bubble TIPS were above 3%, how can the SWR be less? A safe withdrawal rate for a particular mix of asset classes may have been near 2%. However, THE SWR could not have been less than the TIPS ytm.
Oliver
PS I bond yields were less than TIPS.
FIXED REAL RATES
I bond fixed rates are determined each May 1 and November 1. Each fixed rate applies to all I bonds issued in the six months following the rate determination. For example, a fixed rate determined on May 1, 1999 applies to all I bonds issued from May 1999 through October 1999.
DATE FIXED RATES*
MAY 1, 2003 1.10%
NOV 1, 2002 1.60%
MAY 1, 2002 2.00%
NOV 1, 2001 2.00%
MAY 1, 2001 3.00%
NOV 1, 2000 3.40%
MAY 1, 2000 3.60%
NOV 1, 1999 3.40%
MAY 1, 1999 3.30%
NOV 1, 1998 3.30%
SEP 1, 1998 3.40%
*annual rates compounded semiannually