Search found 363 matches

by wanderer
Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:20 pm
Forum: Town Center
Topic: LOL! - hocus...er...SamCooke1961 posts on TMF
Replies: 11
Views: 16855

LOL. I won't be posting here much for a while, but you just made me spit out my noodle soup, raddr. (some - apparently all liquid - exited thru my nostrils.) blocking reasoned discussion of the realities of SWRs I wonder how "SamCooke" would know all that stuff. :wink: The games continue...
by wanderer
Sat Nov 01, 2003 5:37 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: utility theory question
Replies: 14
Views: 23053

wrt to certitude: "Doubt is uncomfortable, certainty is ridiculous." -- Francois Marie Arouet Voltaire hocus and jwr strike me as two really 'certain' individuals. hocus, for example 'knows' that It is not a true statement that it may not be safe. The 4 percent number is not safe for reti...
by wanderer
Sat Nov 01, 2003 3:37 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: I am perplexed
Replies: 31
Views: 38552

from ataloss I have found it interesting that the mathematicians seem to see the swr idea as a rule of thumb. Some imagine much more significance. From hocus: The time is not right for a discussion of the realities of SWRs at this board. That said, I would not want a statement like this to cause fur...
by wanderer
Sat Nov 01, 2003 3:31 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: intrernet trolls
Replies: 2
Views: 8558

duplicitous meaning hidden within the words, calling to mind Dadaist works by Joyce and Lucas. perhaps what they are saying is that "even if the future is identical to the past the result will be different in the future"? It certainly is pleasant watching someone who has given so little v...
by wanderer
Sat Nov 01, 2003 3:28 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: intrernet trolls
Replies: 2
Views: 8558

maybe I lack the background to interpret some posts, wanderer can you help? I think they are referring to Joyce's Portrait of the Artist as a Young Dissembler . In chapter one of that particular meditation, there is a discussion of a little "moo cow". That reminds me of some of the childi...
by wanderer
Fri Oct 31, 2003 5:44 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Good work by jwr1945
Replies: 6
Views: 11451

It's real hard to conduct an out of sample test when each data point requires 30 years of data. It may not be as difficult after the year 3200 AD/CE.
by wanderer
Fri Oct 31, 2003 5:41 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Good work by jwr1945
Replies: 6
Views: 11451

I think JWR gets egged on by hocus

I agree. I'm sticking with the retired math prof.
by wanderer
Fri Oct 31, 2003 5:17 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Good work by jwr1945
Replies: 6
Views: 11451

I'm still trobled by his use of phrases like "we know" "we've proven" wrt safe withdrawal rates and the mean, standard deviation, etc. of the 'true' SWR at any given point in time. Is he still using those phrases? 3 or 4 non-overlapping data points don't constitute much 'proof' i...
by wanderer
Fri Oct 31, 2003 5:12 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: I am perplexed
Replies: 31
Views: 38552

The time is not right for a discussion of the realities of SWRs at this board. Why should anyone accept you as the arbiter of anything? es, please take action on this derogatory statement. That said, I would not want a statement like this to cause further confusion. You would certainly be the first...
by wanderer
Fri Oct 31, 2003 4:51 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: I am perplexed
Replies: 31
Views: 38552

WOW! You folks managed to get through that without me having to delete one post! Good job! I knew you could do it!!! my post, that pointed out that The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts. , was deleted. Esp...
by wanderer
Thu Oct 30, 2003 6:41 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: utility theory question
Replies: 14
Views: 23053

am I the only one who has to play psychological tricks on themselves to keep their financial affairs in order???? I think the trick is to play tricks on yourself. e.g. Sweep (and invest) all but living expenses from your bank accounts on a monthly basis. Increase sweep with raises and tax refunds. ...
by wanderer
Thu Oct 30, 2003 2:43 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: utility theory question
Replies: 14
Views: 23053

great summary for the incredibly lazy, chips.

karma - legend has it that the UCL bowling team used Bentham's noggin' for a ball, using either the eye sockets and mouth or mouth and nostrils as the 'holes'... (that's a joke. :shock:)
by wanderer
Thu Oct 30, 2003 2:22 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Terhorst and coin flipping
Replies: 12
Views: 19608

Andrew Tobias (formerly a financial writer) said in one of his books something to the effect that luxuries that you sample can become necessities. I have tried to avoid automatically spending more. This was part of why I rarely gambled and generally would prefer to avoid individual equities - I was...
by wanderer
Mon Oct 27, 2003 5:29 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Are you on track to retire rich?
Replies: 34
Views: 29403

Is there an ETF for funeral parlors and casket makers? Sounds as though business and future profits might be good


If so, it would undoubtedly be run by the gents proffering S&P indices and knock-offs sporting 5% loads and 1%ers. :wink:
by wanderer
Sun Oct 26, 2003 1:58 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Anybody have a copy of Terhorst's "cashing in"?
Replies: 35
Views: 47768

goddammit this board is exciting! :lol:(is there a head shaking gif?) I agree with essentially all ben just wrote. JWR's calculations are valuable but "prove" less than he asserts. They also relate to a world of which I am not a part - not for a long time do I expect to see a SWR 'mean' of...
by wanderer
Thu Oct 23, 2003 3:18 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Retirees need $1 million for health care alone
Replies: 16
Views: 16364

whenever I see something as astoundingly unattainable as this, I wonder what some of the folks who firmly oppose overseas retirement would do were they not as 'well-to-do'. We hit on the overseas gambit because we stumbled into this thing and because, by 1999 I was well done in the burnt out departm...
by wanderer
Fri Oct 17, 2003 5:21 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Millionaire "Code"
Replies: 14
Views: 13513

I find it risible that someone who cannot possibly know me/my motivations feels free generalize about my "destiny" and to predict what I can and cannot do.

That's my mom's job... :shock: Actually, that is nearly everyone in my life's job. :lol:
by wanderer
Tue Oct 14, 2003 12:06 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Article: About Goldman Sachs research on EM
Replies: 1
Views: 3491

the author goes a bit easy on the responsibility of the developing nations, no? reaching back to the 1930s for a Latin American ref? What about the 1960s through the present? i wonder how he explains the failed economic policies of the current Iranian socialist regime. Are they too much under the US...
by wanderer
Fri Oct 10, 2003 7:33 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Nobel prize for fat tail theory
Replies: 9
Views: 9881

These economists don't have to worry about it because they have got cushy university pensions, People actually care about what these chaps profess. And folks like Shiller and others. there is a second, third and fourth tier of academician, however. The average PhD doesn't have enough sense to pound...