Search found 265 matches
- Tue Apr 20, 2004 1:11 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Worth a look on the SWR board
- Replies: 15
- Views: 23526
Hi Ben, Thank you for looking at this stuff. I'm swimming over my head when it comes to this statistical analysis business. Did you see this post John put up in that thread where he seemed to address similar issues? The total number of degrees of freedom equals 8 (essentially) independent Historical...
- Tue Apr 20, 2004 10:43 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Worth a look on the SWR board
- Replies: 15
- Views: 23526
The data overlap I've alluded to above invalidates the regressions performed on the other board and linked to by Ben in the first post. From the link I provided in the thread it appears that by year 10 most of the autocorrelation has resolved between consecutive SWR data points. With this in mind it...
- Sun Apr 18, 2004 3:46 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The post jwr1945 doesn't want you to see
- Replies: 6
- Views: 13891
Re: The post jwr1945 doesn't want you to see
clearly hocus/rob bennett isn't dumb. why he derives enjoyment from being a troll and trying to get people to acknowledge his "insights" is a mystery to me. Hocus' behavior is not aimed at honestly debating the issues at hand. It is all about being the center of attention. This is classic...
- Sun Apr 18, 2004 3:42 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Worth a look on the SWR board
- Replies: 15
- Views: 23526
Agreed. What's worse, however, is claiming to have 60 independent data points where there's really only 2 or 3. You can't get valid statistics from severely overlapped data. I guess we have differing outlooks on which aspect is most egregious. The overall goal seems to be to generate some data to p...
- Sat Apr 17, 2004 12:59 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Worth a look on the SWR board
- Replies: 15
- Views: 23526
I read the response to the response. I am still not sure what to make of throwing out data and then announcing that what is left fits great. Agreed. What's worse, however, is claiming to have 60 independent data points where there's really only 2 or 3. You can't get valid statistics from severely o...
- Sat Apr 17, 2004 3:40 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Worth a look on the SWR board
- Replies: 15
- Views: 23526
Re: Worth a look on the SWR board
John has put up a very interesting post on the SWR Research board. I'd be interesting in hearing comments from those who don't post there, especially raddr. :) Hi Ben, I looked at it and I have some problems with it. First of all, statements such as this make me very nervous when statistics are bei...
- Mon Apr 12, 2004 3:00 pm
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: Is it time to get rid of the swr research board?
- Replies: 4
- Views: 11713
Re: Is it time to get rid of the swr research board?
hocus/rob bennett is linking to jwr1945 posts on the "research" board at tmf to carry on the hocus anti intercst jihad. NFB is sort of an unwitting participant in more of the nonsensical tmf conflict that hocus enjoys promoting so much. Ataloss, The board seems to have appeal to only a ha...
- Mon Apr 12, 2004 11:36 am
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: hocus back at TMF - LOL!
- Replies: 8
- Views: 17076
Re: hocus back at TMF - LOL!
BTW, you should be flattered, raddr: you are one of his favorite fools. :D I always get a kick out of seeing 'TheFoolSuxx' on my list. :lol: Hi Ben, Ha! I missed that. However intercst is also on his favorites list so I guess maybe it's not something to be too proud of. :oops:
- Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:08 am
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: hocus back at TMF - LOL!
- Replies: 8
- Views: 17076
hocus back at TMF - LOL!
For those with access:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid= ... sort=whole
He's posting under his real name even though he was banned a few months ago! Notice the length of the post. :lol:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid= ... sort=whole
He's posting under his real name even though he was banned a few months ago! Notice the length of the post. :lol:
- Thu Apr 08, 2004 5:18 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Portfolio advice sought
- Replies: 13
- Views: 22220
Wanderer, Looks pretty good to me. Looks like you're getting close to that 0% allocation I recommend for domestic large cap. ;) I like BGEIX better than VGPMX for a pure gold play. It has a low expense ratio. For commodities I really like PCRDX (or PCRIX if you can get it), especially because it is ...
- Thu Apr 08, 2004 5:08 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Portfolio advice sought
- Replies: 13
- Views: 22220
In my Ameritrade account it let me buy the PCRIX despite being an institutional fund demanding a mill or so in minimum normally. Hi Ben, Did you have any trouble getting Ameritrade to let you buy PCRIX? I can't get Schwab to let me in to that share class so I'm stuck with PCRDX. I'll tell them that...
- Mon Feb 23, 2004 3:56 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: raddr- what ever happend to our unlucky y2k retiree?
- Replies: 7
- Views: 14772
I.e. just changing the SP500 for the total market fund would mean an annualized return difference of a couple of % for last 5 years: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/scottburns/columns/2004/stories/012004dnbusburns.cadd0.html I guess my point is that also Intercst and others (Bogle) ...
- Sun Feb 22, 2004 7:07 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: raddr- what ever happend to our unlucky y2k retiree?
- Replies: 7
- Views: 14772
So in conclusion; I am not wrong to say that had the sad retiree just used the Vanguard funds in the 75/25% format and not adjusted for inflation (as he saw the nest egg drop, and as inflation low) he would sit on $768K in Dec 2003 USD. - Sad - but not as sad as 637K..... That sounds about right to...
- Sat Feb 21, 2004 4:30 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: raddr- what ever happend to our unlucky y2k retiree?
- Replies: 7
- Views: 14772
Hi Ben, It looks to me like the Burns' numbers do not include inflation and maybe not expense ratios. I'm also using commercial paper as the fixed income component which alters the FI return a bit. My numbers are stated in real terms (inflation-adjusted). This alone would account for about a 9.5% di...
- Wed Feb 18, 2004 7:03 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: raddr- what ever happend to our unlucky y2k retiree?
- Replies: 7
- Views: 14772
- Thu Feb 05, 2004 3:46 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Vanguard VIPER ETF launch
- Replies: 10
- Views: 25247
- Thu Feb 05, 2004 3:41 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Vanguard VIPER ETF launch
- Replies: 10
- Views: 25247
- Wed Feb 04, 2004 7:56 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Vanguard VIPER ETF launch
- Replies: 10
- Views: 25247
- Mon Dec 15, 2003 5:13 pm
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: LOL - the delusional rant continues!
- Replies: 11
- Views: 19451
Oh my God. What little doubt I had about the guy being mentally ill just evaporated completely. Unbelievable.wanderer wrote:http://bookofhook.com/phpBB/viewtopic.p ... 4e55dcabb7
- Sun Nov 30, 2003 5:02 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: FI or RE
- Replies: 12
- Views: 21396
Re: FI or RE
My own thinking on this is that life enjoyment, mobility and health tend to go down dramatically the nearer you get to age 70. Retiring at 65 is therefore a bit of a lottery. You have to plan to need cash for many years but the odds of living to enjoy it ain't too great. On the other hand, being ab...