Search found 265 matches

by raddr
Sat Nov 01, 2003 4:05 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Good work by jwr1945
Replies: 6
Views: 11426

It's real hard to conduct an out of sample test when each data point requires 30 years of data. It may not be as difficult after the year 3200 AD/CE. Exactly. That's why some sort of simulation technique seems almost mandatory to fine tune the process and serve as a reality check. 130 years of data...
by raddr
Fri Oct 31, 2003 4:17 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: I am perplexed
Replies: 31
Views: 38464

High w.d. rates during the depression did not fail per se because of the high dividends. This is not necessarily the case in the future. A very specific series of events have to happen to generate high dividends, so they shouldn't be relied upon in planning IMHO. Petey, I agree. Dividends per se do...
by raddr
Fri Oct 31, 2003 5:38 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: I am perplexed
Replies: 31
Views: 38464

The other psychological factor in the $2m scenario is how the portfolio was accumulated. If it was accumulated over 20 years of DCAing and then given a big boost by the bubble then the portfolio owner may not be so concerned about a 25% drop - nobody truly believed in the bubble so only lost money ...
by raddr
Wed Oct 29, 2003 1:11 pm
Forum: Town Center
Topic: The disscusion is off. The party is over.
Replies: 7
Views: 13560

Thanks ES! I too had my doubts as to whether the "discussion" was being proposed for the proper reasons. I'd be glad to do another time if it looks like it can be done constructively and not turn into a sniping contest.
by raddr
Mon Oct 27, 2003 7:05 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Anybody have a copy of Terhorst's "cashing in"?
Replies: 35
Views: 47558

John, Presented in context here is the last quote in your post: Maybe hocus and jwr worked hard on it during that time period maybe they didn't. I don't know, I wasn't there. Although jwr makes a lot of sense when he isn't defending hocus, I think he has been a bit incredible at times in his defensi...
by raddr
Mon Oct 27, 2003 3:39 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Anybody have a copy of Terhorst's "cashing in"?
Replies: 35
Views: 47558

Start paying very close attention to the indirect manner in which ataloss presents his opinions. He levies his attacks with seemingly innocuous statements. You can never take anything that he says at face value. and ataloss indirectly called me a liar, which I do not appreciate. I will not waste my...
by raddr
Sun Oct 26, 2003 12:26 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Anybody have a copy of Terhorst's "cashing in"?
Replies: 35
Views: 47558

Hocus: Here's an interesting fact to ponder. I lost posting privledges at the REHP board over five months ago and today my ideas re SWRs remain the primary topic of on-topic posting at the board. What does that tell you? It tells me that they think you are crazy and that they love to ridicule you an...
by raddr
Thu Oct 09, 2003 8:47 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: source for long-term sector returns
Replies: 4
Views: 5371

Re: source for long-term sector returns

anyone have a good source for 5 to 10 years of sector returns? here's what i've found so far: http://news.morningstar.com/QuarterEnd/Q32003SectorPerformance.html 48 industries since the 1920's: http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ftp/48_Industry_Portfolios.zip
by raddr
Thu Oct 09, 2003 8:43 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: unanswered questions
Replies: 14
Views: 11801

I have to agree with raddr in that I don't think any rules were violated. However I would agree that in the spirit of avoiding conflict this post runs afoul of that. Hi ES, Sage words as always. I should point out that I really don't like these kinds of threads either but I felt like ataloss hasn't...
by raddr
Thu Oct 09, 2003 4:00 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: unanswered questions
Replies: 14
Views: 11801

From the NoFeeBoards rules: You agree, through your use of these boards, that you will not post any material which is false, defamatory , inaccurate , abusive , vulgar, hateful , harassing , obscene, profane, sexually oriented, threatening, invasive of a person's privacy, or otherwise in violation ...
by raddr
Tue Oct 07, 2003 2:49 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: My new website is up...sorta
Replies: 33
Views: 24266

I do understand that the sequences are not modified, merely accepted or rejected. But what I worry about is the distribution of sequences, as opposed to the distribution within a sequence. Culling the sequences after generation is likely to lead to a subtly skewed distribution of possible outcomes ...
by raddr
Tue Oct 07, 2003 2:45 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: New Issue of Efficient Frontier by William J. Bernstein
Replies: 7
Views: 7831

Re: New Issue of Efficient Frontier by William J. Bernstein

Actually I think TIPS may be one of the few good investments in this scenerio as it will allow you to purchase the same quantity of goods & services at maturity. Hi Oliver, I'd like to believe this too but I'm very leery of our (US) govt. underestimating inflation and manipulating CPI numbers t...
by raddr
Tue Oct 07, 2003 2:37 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Gordon Formula
Replies: 11
Views: 10173

ataloss wrote: I hope he emails back!!


Me too. I'm having trouble verifying his dividend growth rate for the EAFE index. Looks a tad optimistic to me. :?
by raddr
Mon Oct 06, 2003 8:26 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: My new website is up...sorta
Replies: 33
Views: 24266

Hi Bpp, I think I finally understand what your procedure is, up until the last part perhaps. How do you do the following? I would set the tolerance limits to spit out 1000 75 year sequences distributed around the chosen mean with an SD of 1.1%. It sounds to me like you will end up with a truncated d...
by raddr
Mon Oct 06, 2003 3:40 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: My new website is up...sorta
Replies: 33
Views: 24266

Ok, so you take a proposed portfolio, apply it to historical data, and from those results you measure the mean and 1-, 10- and 40-year SDs of the whole portfolio -- not of the constituent asset classes. Is this right? Yes. Now at this stage, before you look at the 10- and 40-year SDs and the 75-yea...
by raddr
Mon Oct 06, 2003 2:59 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Gordon Formula
Replies: 11
Views: 10173

Re: Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Gordon Formu

It is interesting the William Bernstein has looked over this article too. It seems he's got quite a cottage industry going on reviewing other material on subjects he's familar with. Petey, Do you have a link for the Bernstein article?
by raddr
Sun Oct 05, 2003 11:50 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Gordon Formula
Replies: 11
Views: 10173

Hi Oliver, Nice link! We think that Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2002, p.208) make an important point. They argue that when the prospective equity risk premium over fixed income securities is low, as it is today, it makes sense for investors to make larger portfolio bets on securities that appear to ...
by raddr
Sun Oct 05, 2003 4:15 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: safe withdrawal rate as per fidelity investments
Replies: 9
Views: 7631

Re: Accumulating a 25-year stash is a great start.

Why would you put survival at 50-60%? Is it because of the problem of selling bonds wihch may be underwater because interest rates have moved up since purchase (whereas if you'd held them to maturity you would have gotten your full investment back) or because people with only two asset classes to w...
by raddr
Sun Oct 05, 2003 3:47 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: safe withdrawal rate as per fidelity investments
Replies: 9
Views: 7631

Re: Accumulating a 25-year stash is a great start.

I don't wish to be discouraging to a positive goal. I just recall reading people retiring with 25x or less, and also ignoring the present valuation of their non-diversified US stock investment. Retiring with a nice sum but perhaps only just enough becomes far more risky when you give up your job si...
by raddr
Sun Oct 05, 2003 3:31 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: My new website is up...sorta
Replies: 33
Views: 24266

By "cuts" I refer to your cut-off thresholds for throwing away bad sequences in the MC generator. More specifically, you write: What I did was create a random number generator where the standard deviation of returns was approximately equal to the historical norm. I set the average return ...