Search found 265 matches
- Sat Nov 01, 2003 4:05 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Good work by jwr1945
- Replies: 6
- Views: 11426
It's real hard to conduct an out of sample test when each data point requires 30 years of data. It may not be as difficult after the year 3200 AD/CE. Exactly. That's why some sort of simulation technique seems almost mandatory to fine tune the process and serve as a reality check. 130 years of data...
- Fri Oct 31, 2003 4:17 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: I am perplexed
- Replies: 31
- Views: 38464
High w.d. rates during the depression did not fail per se because of the high dividends. This is not necessarily the case in the future. A very specific series of events have to happen to generate high dividends, so they shouldn't be relied upon in planning IMHO. Petey, I agree. Dividends per se do...
- Fri Oct 31, 2003 5:38 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: I am perplexed
- Replies: 31
- Views: 38464
The other psychological factor in the $2m scenario is how the portfolio was accumulated. If it was accumulated over 20 years of DCAing and then given a big boost by the bubble then the portfolio owner may not be so concerned about a 25% drop - nobody truly believed in the bubble so only lost money ...
- Wed Oct 29, 2003 1:11 pm
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: The disscusion is off. The party is over.
- Replies: 7
- Views: 13560
- Mon Oct 27, 2003 7:05 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Anybody have a copy of Terhorst's "cashing in"?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 47558
John, Presented in context here is the last quote in your post: Maybe hocus and jwr worked hard on it during that time period maybe they didn't. I don't know, I wasn't there. Although jwr makes a lot of sense when he isn't defending hocus, I think he has been a bit incredible at times in his defensi...
- Mon Oct 27, 2003 3:39 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Anybody have a copy of Terhorst's "cashing in"?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 47558
Start paying very close attention to the indirect manner in which ataloss presents his opinions. He levies his attacks with seemingly innocuous statements. You can never take anything that he says at face value. and ataloss indirectly called me a liar, which I do not appreciate. I will not waste my...
- Sun Oct 26, 2003 12:26 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Anybody have a copy of Terhorst's "cashing in"?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 47558
Hocus: Here's an interesting fact to ponder. I lost posting privledges at the REHP board over five months ago and today my ideas re SWRs remain the primary topic of on-topic posting at the board. What does that tell you? It tells me that they think you are crazy and that they love to ridicule you an...
- Thu Oct 09, 2003 8:47 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: source for long-term sector returns
- Replies: 4
- Views: 5371
Re: source for long-term sector returns
anyone have a good source for 5 to 10 years of sector returns? here's what i've found so far: http://news.morningstar.com/QuarterEnd/Q32003SectorPerformance.html 48 industries since the 1920's: http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ftp/48_Industry_Portfolios.zip
- Thu Oct 09, 2003 8:43 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: unanswered questions
- Replies: 14
- Views: 11801
I have to agree with raddr in that I don't think any rules were violated. However I would agree that in the spirit of avoiding conflict this post runs afoul of that. Hi ES, Sage words as always. I should point out that I really don't like these kinds of threads either but I felt like ataloss hasn't...
- Thu Oct 09, 2003 4:00 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: unanswered questions
- Replies: 14
- Views: 11801
From the NoFeeBoards rules: You agree, through your use of these boards, that you will not post any material which is false, defamatory , inaccurate , abusive , vulgar, hateful , harassing , obscene, profane, sexually oriented, threatening, invasive of a person's privacy, or otherwise in violation ...
- Tue Oct 07, 2003 2:49 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: My new website is up...sorta
- Replies: 33
- Views: 24266
I do understand that the sequences are not modified, merely accepted or rejected. But what I worry about is the distribution of sequences, as opposed to the distribution within a sequence. Culling the sequences after generation is likely to lead to a subtly skewed distribution of possible outcomes ...
- Tue Oct 07, 2003 2:45 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: New Issue of Efficient Frontier by William J. Bernstein
- Replies: 7
- Views: 7831
Re: New Issue of Efficient Frontier by William J. Bernstein
Actually I think TIPS may be one of the few good investments in this scenerio as it will allow you to purchase the same quantity of goods & services at maturity. Hi Oliver, I'd like to believe this too but I'm very leery of our (US) govt. underestimating inflation and manipulating CPI numbers t...
- Tue Oct 07, 2003 2:37 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Gordon Formula
- Replies: 11
- Views: 10173
- Mon Oct 06, 2003 8:26 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: My new website is up...sorta
- Replies: 33
- Views: 24266
Hi Bpp, I think I finally understand what your procedure is, up until the last part perhaps. How do you do the following? I would set the tolerance limits to spit out 1000 75 year sequences distributed around the chosen mean with an SD of 1.1%. It sounds to me like you will end up with a truncated d...
- Mon Oct 06, 2003 3:40 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: My new website is up...sorta
- Replies: 33
- Views: 24266
Ok, so you take a proposed portfolio, apply it to historical data, and from those results you measure the mean and 1-, 10- and 40-year SDs of the whole portfolio -- not of the constituent asset classes. Is this right? Yes. Now at this stage, before you look at the 10- and 40-year SDs and the 75-yea...
- Mon Oct 06, 2003 2:59 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Gordon Formula
- Replies: 11
- Views: 10173
Re: Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Gordon Formu
It is interesting the William Bernstein has looked over this article too. It seems he's got quite a cottage industry going on reviewing other material on subjects he's familar with. Petey, Do you have a link for the Bernstein article?
- Sun Oct 05, 2003 11:50 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Gordon Formula
- Replies: 11
- Views: 10173
Hi Oliver, Nice link! We think that Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2002, p.208) make an important point. They argue that when the prospective equity risk premium over fixed income securities is low, as it is today, it makes sense for investors to make larger portfolio bets on securities that appear to ...
- Sun Oct 05, 2003 4:15 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: safe withdrawal rate as per fidelity investments
- Replies: 9
- Views: 7631
Re: Accumulating a 25-year stash is a great start.
Why would you put survival at 50-60%? Is it because of the problem of selling bonds wihch may be underwater because interest rates have moved up since purchase (whereas if you'd held them to maturity you would have gotten your full investment back) or because people with only two asset classes to w...
- Sun Oct 05, 2003 3:47 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: safe withdrawal rate as per fidelity investments
- Replies: 9
- Views: 7631
Re: Accumulating a 25-year stash is a great start.
I don't wish to be discouraging to a positive goal. I just recall reading people retiring with 25x or less, and also ignoring the present valuation of their non-diversified US stock investment. Retiring with a nice sum but perhaps only just enough becomes far more risky when you give up your job si...
- Sun Oct 05, 2003 3:31 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: My new website is up...sorta
- Replies: 33
- Views: 24266