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Be very careful about the time frame associated with any assertion about stock market returns. Conclusions do not automatically extend to different time frames. Most often, the statistical quantities that we run across are in terms of individual years. They do not necessarily apply to longer time p...

P/E10 has worked a little bit better because dividends always come out of earnings and the dividend payout levels can be adjusted by management (subject to shareholder approval). I think there are some errors of wording here. Dividends usually come from earnings. However loss making companies can a...

Here are links to three constructive posts put forward by community members in the thread started by LivAboard referenced above. I have been avidly reading this Research section, and find it very helpful. But doesn't it kind of defeat the no-fee aspect of NoFeeBoards to link to posts that require a...

Thank you John and Ben. I started to post last Wednesday, and a storm rolled in off the Pacific and knocked out my power for a couple days. I am just getting back in gear. I apologize for seeming ungrateful for the help you have given. I will attempt to use John's instructions, and see if I can get ...

I would hugely appreciate any help, and will report my findings here. I am also learning to make box-plots of all this data, and will try to post them with a link. Sounds very interesting, MacDuff. I think I can help but it might be late tomorrow ... Thank you , Ben. I'll check back then. I did fin...

Bonjour fellow seekers of truth and filthy lucre! Yesterday I made a histogram with a cumulative probability line on Shiller's PE 10 data, and today's real PE10 of about 26 is greater than 95% of the monthly PE10's in his database. It also appears that almost all if not all of the values greater tha...

Have any of you developed spread sheets for your personal financial planning? Do you think you might? I have had a lot of use from mine and I'd be happy to discuss the matter here with any of you. This would be very interesting to me. I like Excel, and although I am only medium expert in its use, I...

What would you say to some who pointed out that an investment in Japan held over the last decade would have lost a significant percentage vs. overvalued S&P that still made money? Not sure what Ben would say, but I would say value is now; and "returns" are history. Also, at 11,000 the...

You could apply this kind of thinking to why people now invest in Asia ex Japan due to Japan's collapse, underlying weakness in their banking system and the risk involved in allocating even a small amount to the market. Petey mon ami, you have given an excellent example of why we have markets! I lo...

:great: Would you happen to have any insight on my question about how the Pimco fund NAV might be expected to track commodities prices? (Or were my starting assumptions so far off base that you can't get there from here?) I am going to copy a section from the Pimco Fund promotional literature taken...

It is worth investing in all of them or merely the main energy sources that we used today? Beyond that, is there really a need to invest via risky strategies to get exposure to the total commodities asset class vs. a more specific fund that invests in Gold or Oil & Gas etc? Thoughts anyone? As ...