Search found 525 matches

by peteyperson
Thu Mar 24, 2005 12:11 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS drawdown at staggered coupon rates
Replies: 28
Views: 70720

If one draws down principal over 30 years, that is 3.33% each year of principal (100/30). The remainder is the partial interest as you get the full sum in the first year and declining amounts of interest as the capital declines. This compares very favorably to a 75/25 S&P 500/Bond Index mix whi...
by peteyperson
Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:39 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS drawdown at staggered coupon rates
Replies: 28
Views: 70720

If one draws down principal over 30 years, that is 3.33% each year of principal Is there a risk of living 31 years? Hi ataloss, I plan for a 20-year accumulation and so I would likely retire around 60. I have asked John for the 40-year numbers because this covers beyond actuary numbers at age 60+. ...
by peteyperson
Thu Mar 24, 2005 4:00 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: John R. - Need to get in contact with u but PMs turned off.
Replies: 2
Views: 12915

John R. - Need to get in contact with u but PMs turned off.

Ms seem to be turned off on NFB. You cannot post on raddr's site apparently, so not sure how to swap pvt messages before site shuts down. If you are able to get my email address off Rob & test you have the right one by sending a message, that would solve the problem. I may have Rob's email but I...
by peteyperson
Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:57 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Dead Posts File
Replies: 16
Views: 32085

I deleted a post from this board this morning. It was a post put forward by SalaryGuru. It was a word game post. . . It's your board and you can do what you want. But my own feeling is that the "word game" is not being played by me. My comments were brief, 100% accurate, and directly focu...
by peteyperson
Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:47 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS drawdown at staggered coupon rates
Replies: 28
Views: 70720

In my case I allow for the possibility that I may live and travel abroad in my "retirement" years rather than remain just in the UK. So my spending will be in a variety of countries and the inflation I experience will be varied too. So for me it makes more sense to have TIPS from a mix of...
by peteyperson
Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:39 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: FIREcalc
Replies: 13
Views: 27281

Hi Petey, nice post. Just as an aside, TIPS over 30 years using 10-year TIPS and reinvesting get an estimated 4% real with little taxes and cuts out volatility due to holding to redemption. This line puzzles me though. 10 year TIPS don't offer any where near 4% real return. I guess you are talking ...
by peteyperson
Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:07 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS drawdown at staggered coupon rates
Replies: 28
Views: 70720

French Oati is now down to 1.4% for 10-year TIPS. What we really need (when you have the time) is the 5 to 50 year grid on returns in 5 basis point increments! 2.00%, 1.95% and so on down. One has to be able to work with the numbers for TIPS from different countries and they are all different rates...
by peteyperson
Tue Mar 22, 2005 5:23 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: FIREcalc
Replies: 13
Views: 27281

Yes one of my issues with current calculators is that they do not give us the chance to see how things would have worked out with a more modern portfolio structure - be it reits, commodities, PM, foreign equity, foreign bonds Etc. There is of course a good reason for that; we do not have nearly as ...
by peteyperson
Mon Mar 21, 2005 11:46 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS drawdown at staggered coupon rates
Replies: 28
Views: 70720

TIPS drawdown at staggered coupon rates

John, Could you run the numbers for up to 50 years on 1.7% coupon please? This seems to be quite common at the 10-year TIPS term across many developed TIPS markets. In fact. I'm gonna drive you nuts, John. French Oati is now down to 1.4% for 10-year TIPS. What we really need (when you have the time)...
by peteyperson
Mon Mar 21, 2005 9:53 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS Equivalents
Replies: 7
Views: 15921

It is difficult to believe that I-Bonds paying just 1.05% can give a 40-year retiree 3.07% inflation-adjusted withdrawals. If so, it certainly gives one pause. The thing here is that it is crucial to ensure one actually gets that return and does not suffer safe withdrawal rate losses set against to...
by peteyperson
Mon Mar 21, 2005 9:04 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: FIREcalc
Replies: 13
Views: 27281

Fully agree. And let's not forget that the calculator is basing reply on the historical WORST case scenario :shock:. of a poorly diversified portfolio :shock:, US based only :shock:while blindly pulling a set % plus inflation increases nomatter WHAT the market does :shock:. Each :shock:points out w...
by peteyperson
Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:48 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Conservative distribution phase portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 16678

I agree.

Do not hesitate to keep posting your thoughts.
Thanks guys.

I think my latest post in the TIPS thread is the best yet.

Petey
by peteyperson
Mon Mar 21, 2005 11:20 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS Equivalents
Replies: 7
Views: 15921

Were these run the same way as TIPS or rushed because you were short on time when you posted? When you can, I would appreciate an extension like with TIPS out to 45 and 50 years to cover 50 years olds too. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on my long post when you have more time. I have put t...
by peteyperson
Mon Mar 21, 2005 10:25 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Conservative distribution phase portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 16678

"Conservative" may be a misnomer, but the portfolio is intended to survive a decade like the 1970s and keep on tickin'. Sample portfolio:~ Global Common Stocks - 35% Global Real Estate - 20% Timber - 10% Oil & Gas | Metals & Minerals - 5% Absolute Return - 10% 10-Year TIPS - 20% =...
by peteyperson
Mon Mar 21, 2005 10:10 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
Replies: 30
Views: 44775

I suggest you back up and read Petey's post. That is the way to approach the issue. That's the approach that was followed in every post that was put to the Alternate SWR Methodology board (with the exception of the small number that were deleted pursuant to Dory36's instructions), both those put up...
by peteyperson
Mon Mar 21, 2005 10:06 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
Replies: 30
Views: 44775

Hocus I suggest you back up and read Petey's post. That is the way to approach the issue. And then there is this other guy - Adam Smith and his 'Invisible Hand'. Alas - he is long deceased. Numbers rule. The other stuff is Shakespeare's - Sound and fury signifing nothing. Hi Uncle, Could you clarif...
by peteyperson
Mon Mar 21, 2005 10:05 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
Replies: 30
Views: 44775

You posted on the "Alternate SWR Methodology" board, Pete. When you looked at that board, did you see a single post that was in any way, shape, or form abusive or that in any way contributed to the problems that our community has been experiencing in its discussions of SWRs for 34 months ...
by peteyperson
Sun Mar 20, 2005 5:58 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Conservative distribution phase portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 16678

Alrighty Lets nit pick a little. This be a high maintence portfoflio. Expense control might become an issue - if you fall into the trap of excessive rebalancing. However - here's what I like. In a period of stress one can sidestep market bonkers moves via the TIPs ladder and allow primary trends to...
by peteyperson
Sun Mar 20, 2005 5:19 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
Replies: 30
Views: 44775

Here is my reply to the thread where we were discussing investing strategies: This speaks to some of the problems I have with the 4% number. The 4% number is a useful starting point but it is exactly that, a starting point. The actual experience will always be different. It makes complete sense to m...
by peteyperson
Sun Mar 20, 2005 2:39 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 23817

Just a quick note. I think TIPS are even lower than 2% today. Depends on how long you are buying the term but if you plan to schedule TIPS coming due each year automatically then only 5- and 10-year bonds would work for this plan to schedule yearly and remove price volatility risk. These have the lo...