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Hi raddr,

Would you be willing to describe in more detail how you make your mean-reversion cuts in your simulator? Maybe even post the code for it? I am having some trouble figuring out exactly what you are doing.

Cheers,
Bpp

Hi Petey, This is why ETFs are a saviour. A similar revolution is happening here in Japan. Standard fees for active domestic funds are 3% load, 1.5% ER. Foreign funds have an ER of 1.8%. Domestic index funds are typically 1-2% load, 0.5-0.63% ER. The cheaper index funds track the Nikkei 225 index, t...

Hi Wanderer, sorry, not following: what is the significance to the chinese (the kidnapping thing?)? Absolutely no significance to the Chinese, of course. My only point was that if someone had asked the tourists before they went what significance the dates 16-18 September held, probably the only thin...

On purpose? :) I'll bet good money that none of the tourists were even aware of any significance of that date to the Chinese. If they were even paying attention to anything, the news around those dates was busy commemorating Prime Minister Koizumi's visit to North Korea on September 17th of last yea...

Philipp writes, But as there is no other form of gold but the one we know as the metal the making of gold becomes an entirely other matter, as in this case one needs to change the atomic structure of the element used as base. Yes, gold can in principle be made by transmutation from other elements, u...

Hi MacDuff, The exact nature of how they atempt to track the index is technical, and I would imagine that they reserve quite a bit of freedom to use whatever instruments and techniques that they feel will best suit their needs at given time. I guess I'll have to read the prospectus. I'm actually not...

Hi MacDuff, As one who has successfully used commidity futures and commodity based equities for over 20 years :great: Would you happen to have any insight on my question about how the Pimco fund NAV might be expected to track commodities prices? (Or were my starting assumptions so far off base that ...

Hi Oliver, Thanks for the informative links. The Pimco fund certainly looks interesting, though I haven't figured out how exactly it moves with commodities prices yet. I understand that the basic mechanism is to buy forward contracts on commodities, and you earn (usually) the rise in the contract's ...

Hi ataloss, People seem to have different preferences on how to estimate a SWR (or calculate it with absolute precision in one case.) Some like to define their favorite method as the only correct SWR. I would suggest dropping the bolded parts. Avoids fanning the flames. Cheers, Bpp

I have heard that there may be renewed efforts to go after section 911 in the future. You know, pathetic as it sounds, I bet a lot of politicians are thinking that some version of that banker's parody would play well to the home audience.

Cheers,
Bpp

Hi Petey, What is your reasoning for planning asset allocations seperately for Europe exc UK vs Europe as a whole? Is it because the currencies are presently different[...] Yes, basically. My basic thinking goes like this: all developed markets have about the same expected return. However, those tha...

Hi Petey, Given the paragraph below and not wishing to overweight Europe, how would you go about allocating that on a percentage basis? You cannot overweight the UK without overweighting Europe when you add a European investment. One precludes the other surely? Petey bpp wrote: Hi Petey, Overweighti...

Hi Petey, Overweighting the home country for currency reasons makes sense to me in general. After that, I agree that I don't see a particular reason to overweight Europe-ex-UK relative to the rest of the world. I also don't see a particular reason to omit the rest of the world beyond Europe and the ...

Hi wanderer, The FEIE does not apply to rents - just earned income. Oh well, there goes that idea. Actually, I went back to Pub. 54, and it seems it is in principle possible to consider up to 30% of rental income as earned income, but only if it represents personal services you perform in connection...

Hi KenM, I thought there was an allowance (is it $80,000 a year?) before which overseas resident US citizens started to become liable? Yes, the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion. Only applies to earned income (wages, salary), not interest, dividends or capital gains. So useful for workers, not so usef...

Hi again, Chips, Found the relevant tax code: Section 877 of the Internal Revenue Code. http://www.intltaxlaw.com/inbound/fdap/irc.htm (Click on "Section 877" after going to this link.) Basics: For purposes of paragraph (1), an individual shall be treated as having a principal purpose to a...

Hi Chips, Afterthought: American citizens do not (officially) escape US income taxes wherever in the known universe they reside. (Even death doesn't provide an escape.) As I understand it, an American citizen remains subject to US income taxes as long as he holds that citizenship, and for a period o...

For an even scarier example of a historic bear, the Japanese market continued dropping for more than 11 years. Who knows when it will see it's prior peak of 1990 again? 2020? 2030? Let's see, to get the Nikkei back to its old peak would require a quadrupling from current levels. This could be done ...

That might just get him arrested.

Then he'll be saying, "Love put me in prison..."

Cheers,
Bpp

Any tool used for assessment of the safety of a retirement portfolio that does not take valuation levels at the start of retirement into account is fundamentally flawed. This factor always affects the result. A tool that does not take it into account cannot produce the correct result. That sort of ...