Search found 43 matches

by Norbert Schlenker
Wed Mar 23, 2005 9:01 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

We have a very strong case that past sequences were lucky sequences. Raddr showed this in the early days of the FIRE board. That's worth reading. Could you provide a url? You are here! I am talking about our FIRE board at this NoFeeBoards website. Look at pages 1, 2 and so forth. I doubt that you h...
by Norbert Schlenker
Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:22 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 23755

Then you're assuming that you can fit a straight line to the empirical data. What justifies that assumption? The lines themselves and their R-squared values. What are the r^2's? Look at bpp's graphs in our special SWR Research section. I'm a noob. Could you provide a link? Raddr came up with a prec...
by Norbert Schlenker
Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:16 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

I am under the weather right now, which limits my ability to respond fully. I hope you get better soon. I'm looking forward to our conversations. I urge all to read my May2004 Overview sticky post. Will do. In addition, Hocus has provided an excellent illustration as to why SURVIVED = SAFE is nonse...
by Norbert Schlenker
Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:09 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

From what I can see - and my sight isn't perfect because I don't know the entire history - you were banned for reasons other than questioning the methodology. I was banned by four site administrators: (1) TMFBogey at Motley Fool; (2) ES here; (3) raddr at raddr-pages.com; and (4) Dory 36 at the Ear...
by Norbert Schlenker
Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:48 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Dead Posts File
Replies: 16
Views: 32045

I've deleted a post put forward by BeachBumz. I thought you were going away. It was a nonsense gibberish defense of the intercst SWR claims. Huh? How is the following a defense of intercst? The closest thing I've seen to absolutely safe is JWR's calculations on TIPs if you have a limited time frame...
by Norbert Schlenker
Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:45 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS drawdown at staggered coupon rates
Replies: 28
Views: 70641

In my case I allow for the possibility that I may live and travel abroad in my "retirement" years rather than remain just in the UK. So my spending will be in a variety of countries and the inflation I experience will be varied too. So for me it makes more sense to have TIPS from a mix of...
by Norbert Schlenker
Tue Mar 22, 2005 12:32 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

The question that was answered over two years ago is--Is there enough cause to believe that valuation levels affect SWRs that community members should be permitted to argue that case on the various Retire Early boards? When I first made the claim, intercst said that I was "mentally ill" a...
by Norbert Schlenker
Tue Mar 22, 2005 12:15 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

To be fair, you are also accused of twisting facts and logic to further your vendetta and of doing so ad nauseum. No one who has said such a thing has ever pointed to a post with my name on it as offering support for the claim. No one ever will. There is no post in the archives offering any support...
by Norbert Schlenker
Tue Mar 22, 2005 12:01 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

follow the evidence and discussion wherever it leads, and hope that the result is sufficient to expose intercst's result as at best lame. We already know that Bernstein says that intercst got the number wrong by two full percentage points. Arguments from authority are fallacious. I have high respec...
by Norbert Schlenker
Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:49 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

Intercst got the number wrong regardless of anything that JWR1945 has done Your worst enemy can say that the sun will rise tomorrow. That your worst enemy says so does not make it false. You have said on more than one occasion that numbers are not your strong point. Given that, how can you know tha...
by Norbert Schlenker
Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:15 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

I'm here to learn. ... When people put up nonsense, I'm not getting a decent value proposition for the time I put in here. I'd like you not to get upset while reading this, so sit down and take a deep breath. I hope that JWR1945 and I can have a discussion here about his methodology. Suppose that, ...
by Norbert Schlenker
Tue Mar 22, 2005 8:38 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

First, you need to determine whether the methodology used in the REHP study is analytically valid or not. Only then do you proceed to determining whether an alternate methodology that is analytically valid can be developed. You are focusing on the second stage before you have completed work on the ...
by Norbert Schlenker
Tue Mar 22, 2005 8:03 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

I understand that it's a problem for your thesis that a 4% SWR beginning in 1929 survived. You need to address it, not brush it off. In this [statement] we see the attitude pop to the surface again. It is a dead giveaway of someone who wants to defend intercst, feels frustrated that the nonsense do...
by Norbert Schlenker
Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:25 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

The great debate was whether Safe Withdrawal Rates depend upon stock valuations. They do. That is where the debate ends. Let me be just a little blunt. That flat assertion has the tone of religious fervor. I assume this debate was conducted somewhere, probably online, and that you could provide a p...
by Norbert Schlenker
Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:01 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 23755

Excel curve fitting equations do not assume knowledge of an underlying distribution. They simply minimize the least squares error. Very well. Then you're assuming that you can fit a straight line to the empirical data. What justifies that assumption? Mean reverting properties show up as smaller var...
by Norbert Schlenker
Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:45 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS drawdown at staggered coupon rates
Replies: 28
Views: 70641

French Oati is now down to 1.4% for 10-year TIPS. What we really need (when you have the time) is the 5 to 50 year grid on returns in 5 basis point increments! 2.00%, 1.95% and so on down. One has to be able to work with the numbers for TIPS from different countries and they are all different rates...
by Norbert Schlenker
Mon Mar 21, 2005 3:35 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 23755

2) The next step is to plot the historical data versus 100E10/P. We use Excel calculations to determine the best linear curve fit (i.e., regression). 3) We determine confidence limits. Most of the time, we use eyeball estimates as a convenience. We have the appropriate formulas that we can use when...
by Norbert Schlenker
Mon Mar 21, 2005 3:20 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155641

Getting a newbie up to speed quickly

I've read the announcements and the stickies at the top of the forum and I'm going to ask some clueless newbie questions. I refer first to this thread, which JWR1945 says "settles the great debate". 1. What's the great debate? 2. Does it have anything to do with the dreaded 4%? 3. If so, u...
by Norbert Schlenker
Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:49 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
Replies: 30
Views: 44705

Are you going to answer the questions I asked above? I understand your reluctance to disclose private correspondence so I will excuse that for the moment. I assume also that you will be forthcoming should Dory give his permission to publish. But how about the simple question re moderation of the con...
by Norbert Schlenker
Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:10 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
Replies: 30
Views: 44705

I will vouch personally that hocus has accurately described what happened. Do you have documentation? It is unreasonable to demand that hocus have documentation ... hocus claims that Dory told him to delete posts. As they're not in the same room, I assume that it would be in the form of an email. h...