Search found 98 matches

by bpp
Mon Jul 05, 2004 3:13 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Definitions
Replies: 22
Views: 24460

Hi John R., Most often, we use the 90% confidence limits. For your 90% confidence limits, I noticed you are using +-1.64 sigma, the double-sided 90% confidence limits, which corresponds to a 5% chance of failure. Since failure can only happen in one direction (we won't go broke from withdrawing too ...
by bpp
Fri Jun 25, 2004 6:18 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: For "BPP"
Replies: 3
Views: 6894

This is the kind of post that nobody likes to read.
Rather than have to read more of this kind of post, I have deleted the paragraph in question. I still don't think what I said in that paragraph was wrong, but as I said, it is not the kind of stuff that I prefer to spend my time on.

Bpp
by bpp
Fri Jun 25, 2004 5:52 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Matters of Interpretation
Replies: 10
Views: 11963

I've emailed the plots to ES. (I think...)

Bpp
by bpp
Thu Jun 24, 2004 10:21 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Matters of Interpretation
Replies: 10
Views: 11963

Your link did not work (for me). I got an error 404 from the linked site, which indicates that it was unable to locate your graph. Strange, it works for me, even from a different computer. I did have a problem once when I left the trailing slash off (and it was missing in the link I originally forw...
by bpp
Thu Jun 24, 2004 6:09 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Matters of Interpretation
Replies: 10
Views: 11963

Matters of Interpretation

After storming off the SWR board last week, I have been having some discussions with John R. in PM. He suggested posting them here. Here they are. Bpp ----BPP=>JWR----------------------------------------------- Hi John, I did a little playing around with your HDBR data. Putting your tables of PE10, ...
by bpp
Sat Jun 19, 2004 11:24 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Dead Posts File
Replies: 16
Views: 32138

Those seeking an explanation for the deletion of the earlier SalaryGuru post need to review the opening post in this thread. From the opening post: I deleted a post from this board this morning. It was a post put forward by SalaryGuru. It was a word game post. If you're going to stand by your origi...
by bpp
Sat Jun 19, 2004 10:22 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: SWR as a Tool
Replies: 22
Views: 21697

Hi TH, I'm not sure restoring SG's post is even relevant. It's relevant to me as an indicator that Hocus is willing to listen to reasoned objections. SG's post was direct, factually unobjectionable, and while a tad strongly worded, it was not malicious or deceitful. It was a straight-talking stateme...
by bpp
Sat Jun 19, 2004 8:00 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: SWR as a Tool
Replies: 22
Views: 21697

The 4% number refers to a very specific problem. With regards to this very specific problem, I agree completely with what salaryguru said. When I stated that 4% is not guaranteed, I am talking in terms of a 90% confidence level. I frankly don't see how you can assign meaningful confidence levels he...
by bpp
Thu Jun 17, 2004 6:45 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: SWR as a Tool
Replies: 22
Views: 21697

In terms of a rate to withdraw, 4% is not guaranteed to be safe. Neither is any number that you are going to come up with. As far as I can see, the whole SWR methodology is fatally flawed. If your portfolio has any volatility or risk whatsoever, you can never guarantee a perfectly safe withdrawal r...
by bpp
Thu Jun 17, 2004 3:32 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: SWR as a Tool
Replies: 22
Views: 21697

As for "normalizing to a very high level of safety," that seems to be a way of saying that you are constantly seeking out new failure modes? No. We are taking known factors including known failure modes into account. As we discover new failure modes, we will take them into account as well...
by bpp
Wed Jun 16, 2004 8:57 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: SWR as a Tool
Replies: 22
Views: 21697

Hi John, Ok, so what I'm getting is that the "single-asset SWRs" are just the byproduct of not having any long-term data for anything except S&P500 and commercial paper, and are not an essential feature of the tool. Also, you don't claim that you have found all the factors that impact ...
by bpp
Wed Jun 16, 2004 6:26 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: SWR as a Tool
Replies: 22
Views: 21697

Hi John, Thanks for the reply. Still some confusion remaining: 1) All investments were normalized to a very high level of safety. and "Normalize"? The tool somehow rescales investments to unity or something? I don't understand the meaning of this. This explains hocus's initial question tha...
by bpp
Wed Jun 16, 2004 4:35 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: SWR as a Tool
Replies: 22
Views: 21697

John R., You seem to me like someone who generally knows what he is talking about. You also seem to have taken it upon yourself to explain what Hocus is talking about to everyone. Some things I don't understand about this tool: 1) All investments were normalized to a very high level of safety. "...
by bpp
Sat Jun 12, 2004 4:43 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: For "TH"
Replies: 13
Views: 13806

A few meta discussions now can save us a whole bunch of them down the road.
I disagree. Strongly.

Bpp
by bpp
Sat Jun 12, 2004 3:16 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: For "TH"
Replies: 13
Views: 13806

[Intercst this, intercst that...]
Hocus, if you want other people to drop the meta-discussions and focus on the mechanics of SWR, you have to do the same yourself.

Bpp
by bpp
Fri Jun 11, 2004 2:53 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Hocus is back?!
Replies: 41
Views: 56694

ataloss, raddr, et al.,

Just ignoring him isn't an option?

Bpp
by bpp
Mon Jun 07, 2004 4:29 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: From Chapter 10: Raddr 3, Gummy 2, Bogle 0?
Replies: 8
Views: 9805

Hi John R.,

Of course, you're right. As you show, the 1/N behavior is not dependent on the shape of the distribution.:oops:

Bpp
by bpp
Mon Jun 07, 2004 3:53 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: From Chapter 8
Replies: 8
Views: 8777

Hi John R., John Bogle showed that the efficient frontier was unusable. He showed that it produced extreme changes in allocations based on changes in risk so small as not to be meaningful. He showed that normal changes in the market cased vast changes in the efficient frontier from one decade to the...
by bpp
Sun Jun 06, 2004 4:16 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: From Chapter 10: Raddr 3, Gummy 2, Bogle 0?
Replies: 8
Views: 9805

Hi John R., Raddr's precise definition of Reversion to the Mean is a new finding and it is meaningful. The volatility of the stock market has decreased more rapidly than if it were purely random. That is, the variance has fallen faster with time than 1/N, where N is the number of years (and the stan...
by bpp
Tue Jun 01, 2004 7:13 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Oil threat to Fire?
Replies: 17
Views: 25444

Also, even if we manage to develop good dependable alternative powered vehicles. There still the problem of unstability in Saudia Arabia. A Saudi Arabia run by mullahs will really toss a spanner into the works. On the other hand, if the rest of the world doesn't depend on Saudi Arabia's oil, then t...