Search found 752 matches

by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:40 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

Those three sentences indicate a desire to rub intercst's nose into the dirt more than anything else It's exactly the opposite. Intercst is a grown man. Grown men have to take responsibility for their actions. He is not three years old and we should all stop treating him like he is a three-year old...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:33 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

Can I count on you to learn from that rather than delete what is written? If you do something that shows me that the JWR1945 methodology does not work, you will be my friend for life. You will be saving me from a lot of embarassment that I would have experienced taking his methodology public in spe...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:47 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

Perhaps if we can't have an honest, non-hostile debate at dorey36, we can have it here. Perhaps. But to have a useful discussion, we need posters. How many can we count on pulling in to discussions held at this place? There's a board boycott in place, remember? If you persist in bringing up difficu...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:20 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

Are you too looking for disciples who must first renounce the devil before they "proceed to developing alternatives that work"? No. I've come over the course of time to believe that I am about as different a sort of person from intercst as it is possible to be. Disciples ain't my cup of t...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 8:12 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

He bases that conclusion on regressions You are mixing up two different stages of the analysis before us. First, you need to determine whether the methodology used in the REHP study is analytically valid or not. Only then do you proceed to determining whether an alternate methodology that is analyt...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 8:02 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

And I think Bernstein may be full of it from time to time. That's a fair comment. I have no problem at all with that one. But if some community members believe that Bernstein got the SWR right and some think he is full of it. then both groups should be able to engage in a reasoned exchange of views...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:53 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

Can you demonstrate that tying a safe withdrawal rate to initial valuation is similarly justified? Again, it is for JWR1945 to respond to the statistics questions. But I believe that the table below (which he prepared) might help with the above. The table compares the PE10 at the start of a 30-year...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:40 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

I understand that it's a problem for your thesis that a 4% SWR beginning in 1929 survived. You need to address it, not brush it off. Most of the questions in this post are for JWR1945 and most are reasonable questions. In this one we see the attitude pop to the surface again. It is a dead giveaway ...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:28 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

Of course Ben and Intercst and Raddr are shooting straight. This isn't a joke, UncleMick. Dory36 has compromised the integrity of discussions held at his site--which is a very important site--so that a con man can hang on a few months longer. If you're still laughing, you need to stop laughing and ...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:12 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: FIREcalc
Replies: 13
Views: 27294

Meanwhile even if FIREd at current valuations historically the 4% would hae survived and thereby have been safe. Right?

I can't tell if you are kidding around on this one or not. The answer is "no, that's not right."
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:08 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

might be caused by me not being a native English speaker!

You speak intercst, do you? I understand that Dory36 has been taking some classes..
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:59 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

I read safe/survived as the same thing - you do not. We don't have to agree. You need to get yourself up to speed on the ABCs, Ben. They are not even close to being the same thing. The difference between using a withdrawal rate that the historical data reveals survived historically and using a with...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:54 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

But historically none of the portfolio went bust at 4%

You're not shooting straight, Ben. Your aim is crooked..
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:48 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: FIREcalc
Replies: 13
Views: 27294

It does not make guesses about the future. Firecalc is based on history. You have it backwards, Ben. FIRECalc is not only based on a guess, it is based on the most far-fetched guess imaginable. It is all rooted in the assumption that on the day of your retirement, the laws of investing will all be ...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:27 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

Are you saying that the 4% rate was NOT always safe when back tested in the PAST. The 4 percent number was not always safe in earlier periods, BeachBumz. It always SURVIVED in earlier periods. That's something different. Say that I have driven 10 miles to a friend's house every Sunday night for two...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 5:59 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 23830

I appreciate that this is a valuable thread. Much of what is being said is way over my head, but I can tell that it is important stuff. I just want to make a point aimed at putting things in perspective for those like me who do not have the skill set required to make full sense of what is going on i...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 5:47 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 23830

This is meant to be a sticky post.

I've sent ES an e-mail asking that a sticky be assigned to the thread, JWR1945.
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 5:33 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
Replies: 30
Views: 44800

I take it back, Norbert. I checked your profile and figured out that you are the guy who posts as "NFS" over at the Early Retirement Forum. Your recent posts over there are serious community-building stuff. You have the balls to talk a little bit of truth to power. We need a whole bunch mo...
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 1:40 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: FIREcalc
Replies: 13
Views: 27294

Does this take the worst return series but ignore current valuations and what that indicates about current future expected returns? My understanding is that FIRECalc uses the results generated by the REHP study. That would mean that the analytical flaws of the REHP study are carried over to FIRECalc.
by hocus2004
Tue Mar 22, 2005 1:29 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155846

I agree with what was said in the JWR1945 post above. I'll add a few comments of my own here. What's the great debate? Intercst founded the first Retire Early board (the Motley Fool board). Because he was the author of an SWR study (the study published at RetireEarlyHomePage.com), using SWR analysis...