Search found 559 matches

by ataloss
Thu Jan 09, 2003 6:32 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Hypothetical Y2K retiree update
Replies: 12
Views: 11048

The democrats think we should give money to the poor and tax the rich. I'd be in favor of that except that whenever they want to tax the rich it turns out to be me. LOL, I don't mind the soak the rich tax programs except for the fact that I am included.
by ataloss
Wed Dec 25, 2002 4:48 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How long a retirement?
Replies: 7
Views: 8226

great chart (and more reason to diversify)
by ataloss
Tue Dec 24, 2002 4:31 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How long a retirement?
Replies: 7
Views: 8226

If I am doing excel right that 10% life expectancy (for the hypothetical 48 year old male) is age 91 ie 43 years of portfolio withdrawals
by ataloss
Tue Dec 24, 2002 2:33 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: For Hocus
Replies: 38
Views: 27627

Is TMF still attracting fresh voices now that it has imposed the fee? And will that continue once the free period runs out for heavy posters? They will find out after 2/14. It would be interesting to see how many get free membership for the next year. (I am sure I won't be included this time)
by ataloss
Mon Dec 23, 2002 4:18 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How long a retirement?
Replies: 7
Views: 8226

amazing amount of statistics (using the yearly death probabilities I should be able to calculate a joint life expectancy as well as the age where the probability of geing alive is low - like 10%)
by ataloss
Mon Dec 23, 2002 12:55 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How long a retirement?
Replies: 7
Views: 8226

How long a retirement?

median remaining life expectancy of 30 years is attained for white males at age 48 and at age 52 for females. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lt2000.pdf The CDC data don't allow you to look at basic risk factors (like smoking.) Looking at 30 year portfolio survival seems inadequate to me (especially fo...
by ataloss
Fri Dec 20, 2002 1:00 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: For Hocus
Replies: 38
Views: 27627

Hocus, I think that you and the many astute posters here have absorbed much/all of the lessons of the TMF board. I am willing to learn from the master of FIRE who are here. I don't see much new of value at TMF although I don't mind going back to post until my term expires. Clearly there is more than...
by ataloss
Fri Dec 20, 2002 9:42 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: For Hocus
Replies: 38
Views: 27627

? Someone needs to provide me a good reason why we should walk away from one wonderful resource just because El Supremo has been kind enough to create a second one for us. 1. $30.00 I am saving up to buy your book. ataloss (who is not likely to be getting another free year)
by ataloss
Thu Dec 19, 2002 7:45 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: PE (10 years average earnings) and historic SWR
Replies: 20
Views: 20799

When BenSolar says that switching does not significantly raise the SWR, I believe that what he means is that it does not raise it above the 4 percent advertised figure. although early indications suggest that switching might have been of benefit to retirees in 2000 (we will have to wait to 2030 for...
by ataloss
Sun Dec 15, 2002 4:56 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Of tainted history, data torture, and faux SWR's
Replies: 26
Views: 22380

Is intercst saying that it is impossible that a future 30 year swr will be in the 2% range? William Bernstein seems to think that future returns will be lower and that 2% would be safe. Bogle, Buffett and others seem to be predicting low stock returns. If we truly had hundreds of independent data po...
by ataloss
Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:32 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: My REHP Post on Our Upcoming Debate on SWRs
Replies: 11
Views: 11451

Hey! Did you see that FrankZ is here?


Fantastic :)

Raddr, thanks for the link to the hocus post
by ataloss
Tue Dec 10, 2002 3:30 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: My REHP Post on Our Upcoming Debate on SWRs
Replies: 11
Views: 11451

if someone over there wants to debate something posted here with the author that they need to come over here to do it.


constructive debate encouraged, ad hominem attacks may be axed by ES
by ataloss
Mon Dec 09, 2002 1:59 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Importance of the sequence of returns for calculating SWR
Replies: 34
Views: 28723

using an 800x600 I am think a width up to about 600 can be supported. This will work for images that we upload to anoter site but in terms of linking to other images you sort of get what you have. For some reason when I postred this 600 pixel wide image the text is wider than the image. :cry: Maybe ...
by ataloss
Mon Dec 09, 2002 6:20 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Importance of the sequence of returns for calculating SWR
Replies: 34
Views: 28723

I haven't been able to post tables because all the spacing has been removed (I am not sure if it a limitation of the board or my fault.) I have posted links to wide jpgs that have resulted in a need to scroll. I don't know how th tell in advance if this will happen. I have been amusing myself (at le...
by ataloss
Mon Dec 09, 2002 6:11 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Datamining in Intercst SWR Study
Replies: 20
Views: 18017

here's a source on what data mining is: www.investorhome.com/mining.htm I was left with the impression that data mining was useful for hypothesis generation but out of sample testing is required for confirmation. The TMF crew data mined and curve fit and then applied statistics as if they were anal...
by ataloss
Sat Dec 07, 2002 4:54 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Importance of the sequence of returns for calculating SWR
Replies: 34
Views: 28723

There is a web site that has been linked to at the TMF board from time to time where a real estate guy lists all the problems with the thinking of the guy who did the "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" books. One of my favorites: John T. Reed http://www.johntreed.com/Kiyosaki.html Ataloss confident tha...
by ataloss
Wed Dec 04, 2002 2:24 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Repeated post: FIRE The Dual Portfolio Approach
Replies: 5
Views: 6296

I agree that these are great posts. I wish we had a rec. feature since I want to show support for this sort of thing but have nothing to add.
by ataloss
Mon Dec 02, 2002 11:25 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Update on TMF Retire Early Board Saga
Replies: 14
Views: 11931

Glad to see you here hocus. I posted at TMF but I am not optimistic. Several of the responses to your thoughtful post were of the I'm not reading a hocus post variety. Reminds me of kids covering their ears and shouting to avoid hearing something.
by ataloss
Tue Nov 26, 2002 11:53 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: What does "FIRE" stand for?
Replies: 7
Views: 8236

Joe Dominguez

It is worth noting that the investment advice in 'Your Money or Your Life' is outdated. At the time 100% bond investment was good because returns were in the 14% area per annum. Dominguez stuck with his investment advice (he died btw) even when times changed and some fresh thinking was needed. I th...