Search found 752 matches
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:40 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
Those three sentences indicate a desire to rub intercst's nose into the dirt more than anything else It's exactly the opposite. Intercst is a grown man. Grown men have to take responsibility for their actions. He is not three years old and we should all stop treating him like he is a three-year old...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:33 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
Can I count on you to learn from that rather than delete what is written? If you do something that shows me that the JWR1945 methodology does not work, you will be my friend for life. You will be saving me from a lot of embarassment that I would have experienced taking his methodology public in spe...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:47 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
Perhaps if we can't have an honest, non-hostile debate at dorey36, we can have it here. Perhaps. But to have a useful discussion, we need posters. How many can we count on pulling in to discussions held at this place? There's a board boycott in place, remember? If you persist in bringing up difficu...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:20 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 8:12 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
He bases that conclusion on regressions You are mixing up two different stages of the analysis before us. First, you need to determine whether the methodology used in the REHP study is analytically valid or not. Only then do you proceed to determining whether an alternate methodology that is analyt...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 8:02 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
And I think Bernstein may be full of it from time to time. That's a fair comment. I have no problem at all with that one. But if some community members believe that Bernstein got the SWR right and some think he is full of it. then both groups should be able to engage in a reasoned exchange of views...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:53 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
Can you demonstrate that tying a safe withdrawal rate to initial valuation is similarly justified? Again, it is for JWR1945 to respond to the statistics questions. But I believe that the table below (which he prepared) might help with the above. The table compares the PE10 at the start of a 30-year...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:40 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
I understand that it's a problem for your thesis that a 4% SWR beginning in 1929 survived. You need to address it, not brush it off. Most of the questions in this post are for JWR1945 and most are reasonable questions. In this one we see the attitude pop to the surface again. It is a dead giveaway ...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:28 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
Of course Ben and Intercst and Raddr are shooting straight. This isn't a joke, UncleMick. Dory36 has compromised the integrity of discussions held at his site--which is a very important site--so that a con man can hang on a few months longer. If you're still laughing, you need to stop laughing and ...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:12 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: FIREcalc
- Replies: 13
- Views: 30052
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:08 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:59 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
I read safe/survived as the same thing - you do not. We don't have to agree. You need to get yourself up to speed on the ABCs, Ben. They are not even close to being the same thing. The difference between using a withdrawal rate that the historical data reveals survived historically and using a with...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:54 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:48 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: FIREcalc
- Replies: 13
- Views: 30052
It does not make guesses about the future. Firecalc is based on history. You have it backwards, Ben. FIRECalc is not only based on a guess, it is based on the most far-fetched guess imaginable. It is all rooted in the assumption that on the day of your retirement, the laws of investing will all be ...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:27 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
Are you saying that the 4% rate was NOT always safe when back tested in the PAST. The 4 percent number was not always safe in earlier periods, BeachBumz. It always SURVIVED in earlier periods. That's something different. Say that I have driven 10 miles to a friend's house every Sunday night for two...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 5:59 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
- Replies: 13
- Views: 27166
I appreciate that this is a valuable thread. Much of what is being said is way over my head, but I can tell that it is important stuff. I just want to make a point aimed at putting things in perspective for those like me who do not have the skill set required to make full sense of what is going on i...
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 5:47 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
- Replies: 13
- Views: 27166
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 5:33 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
- Replies: 30
- Views: 50201
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 1:40 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: FIREcalc
- Replies: 13
- Views: 30052
Does this take the worst return series but ignore current valuations and what that indicates about current future expected returns? My understanding is that FIRECalc uses the results generated by the REHP study. That would mean that the analytical flaws of the REHP study are carried over to FIRECalc.
- Tue Mar 22, 2005 1:29 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
- Replies: 75
- Views: 168664
I agree with what was said in the JWR1945 post above. I'll add a few comments of my own here. What's the great debate? Intercst founded the first Retire Early board (the Motley Fool board). Because he was the author of an SWR study (the study published at RetireEarlyHomePage.com), using SWR analysis...