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Hi John, Just thinking about this, I would assume you would agree that someone taking a 50% common stock allocation but holding other assets like real assets, absolute return, IBonds and so on would benefit far more from lack of correlation which would further improve results? I understand your reas...

Hi MacDuff, I would say your interpretation is about right. The suggested model adjusts for valuations because that is really what it is aiming to do. Selling down asset classes that offer poor future real returns by merit of the high P/E at the time. I can do this manually for the UK large stock or...

Caution: I have not made any adjustments for today's valuations. The actual improvement starting with today's valuations are likely to be less. You can still estimate relative performance when compared to the S&P500 index. It will be interesting to see how Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates ...

Hi Rob, I agree with what you have said. My only caveat is that it does reduce your need for a further $250k in savings, but it also requires you to keep working forever and that may not be practical. It requires the ability to either do that or have the new job earn more than you need so you can ad...

The following numbers are in real dollars. That is, they are adjusted to match inflation. Withdrawals of 4% mean 4% plus inflation. If inflation is 3%, the withdrawal amount totals 7%. Hmm. I must not understand the way you are using these rates. With my math, if one is using a 4% withdrawal rate, ...

Hi Dave, Well opinion varies on average PE. Jeremy Grantham says it is likely to be more like 16 because the world is a safer place now. This was before 911 and a resurgence of terrorism on home soil. I tend to work with the Bogle data of 14.1x and use 16x for higher quality businesses that have uni...

One of the silliest things I thought I would do when I retired was to get the house completely straight. All the clutter would be gone, and would never get that way again. I also thought I'd spend more time at museums and such, but somehow I just don't get to it. I think I need some sort of plan th...

Yes, this is exactly right. One does need that kind of time and freedom to pursue this. Me, I'm going to be trying to disentangle myself from such committments in order to pursue whatever I like without something holding me to one location etc. I'm therefore likely to use the net for a lot of freque...

I have been visiting this board for awhile and reading all the research posts with great interest. I think I understand what you're saying, but I need someone to explain it in words of less than three syllables, leaving out the references to whose study says what (I'll trust you on that), and assum...

Well this does paint a different picture. I would have more confidence with that level of initial income as well as the seminar deal. That demonstrated that there was a paying market for what you are writing. I too have an interest in writing. I'm working up to it slowly and not making a fuss about ...

Ah! I see what you're getting at. I've looked at that aspect. What I found was that if you get a series of poor returns, then the 20 year's worth of spend down capital doesn't survive the 30 years. It sort of collapses somewhere between 15-25 years. It is late so I may not be thinking clearly on thi...

Well this may not be the case, but I would suggest that world governments, particularly the U.S., would not allow that to happen. 70% of world pharma is based in the U.S. With the end of that industry comes massive falls in medical science, cure, prevention and treatment. Governments have shown them...

Party harty. Yeah I can see that in you, Ben! :lol: I also have an interest in learning how to fly. No idea why! It's one of those crazy, totally impractical, never be able to afford my own plan so why the hell do it? I think it is the challenge of the thing. It is the difference of the thing versus...

Too much time on message boards. Today, yes. Taking a break tomorrow! What I expect I want to do including writing, travelling, living in different countries, living cheap and doing what I enjoy. I like my books and my TV series I can buy on DVD box sets, but other than that I'm a fairly low mainten...

The problem with the non-traditional way is that one can easily quit with inflated ideas of what is possible income wise, then get stuck and have to go back where the options are not as expected. This changes the whole financial scenario you both get into and are left with after the dream dies. The ...

I completely agree with the concept of increasing levels of personal and/or financial freedom. And one can branch off when one feels okay to do so. When one has enough behind us to be okay, to survive, to get by at least. But then, we're really saying we have reached bare bones FI (ability to fund e...

Yes, yes, and you've taken a risk to try this something different. That is fine. That suits you and I'm certainly not knocking that. But we also talk in more general terms & in general I think it is a risky idea. You leap out of something that would have gotten you to the touchdown and instead o...

Hi Rob, I think I would separate out the financial requirement from the choice. I wouldn't have you work an additional five years. You are dependent on the $10,000 in investment return, but at some point one will be unable to work and you will then have to be dependent on the investments to deliver....

What is your analysis on Merck? I'm curious as to how you see things playing out. The last time I looked at it, it seemed reasonable to assume no growth in earnings for some years to come and now there are additional declines in income expected. I like GlaxoSmithKline which has a 3.45% dividend yiel...

http://www.thornburginvestments.com/res ... pe0304.pdf

http://www.thornburginvestments.com/res ... n_1104.pdf

http://www.thornburginvestments.com/res ... idends.asp

Petey