Search found 525 matches

by peteyperson
Sun Feb 06, 2005 4:29 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 44234

The killer is, even if we are to presume that I got that one right (not a universarlly accepted notion, to be sure!), I still have ahead of me the decisions that I need to make for 2005 and 2006 and 2007 and all those other damn 2000 numbers. I'm totally screwed! There's no getting off this crazy c...
by peteyperson
Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:34 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 44234

Hi Rob, Must say I find your post a bit troubling. Very unRob-like. I think you either understand and believe in the fundamental valuation & return estimate mechanisms or you do not. It would make no sense at all to put money into stocks if one concludes returns are minimal and risk to capital i...
by peteyperson
Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:08 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 44234

Well I don't think in terms of lowering my stock allocation. I think in terms of are there any asset classes that provide reasonable real returns? Global equity real returns from 1900-2002 were 5.4% real. The UK was 5.2% real. This is for total market indices and doesn't take account of either value...
by peteyperson
Sat Feb 05, 2005 1:42 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 44234

UK Small Cap Value and UK Micro Cap are fairly valued. Small cap may be a tiny bit overpriced but not by much. NZ timber is fairly valued as the land is pre-owned and the forest is grown over a 20 year period and then harvested. So no easy way for it to be overpriced as it is not already grown. Ther...
by peteyperson
Sat Feb 05, 2005 5:53 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Is Your Dividend Income Protected by a Moat?
Replies: 6
Views: 15167

Actually after funding what growth makes sense, it then makes the most sense to repay all company debt and then to repurchase company shares if they are trading at what the management believe is either a fair value or a discount. Both of these are still preferable to taxable dividends on a total ret...
by peteyperson
Sat Feb 05, 2005 4:56 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
Replies: 28
Views: 38480

Well said. Petey Trying to take sometimes complex stuff based on simple ideas and boil it down into a post is often difficult. A simple presentation of ideas is much different from a presentation of simple ideas. Many people misinterpret ideas that are presented clearly. Because they can understand ...
by peteyperson
Sat Feb 05, 2005 4:55 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 44234

Hi Rob, One has to be careful not to adopt a speculative mindset The idea to be wary not to adopt a speculative mindset came from John Maynard Keynes. I do not think one is in danger of doing so if one is using facts about valuation levels - various metrics - in order to make reasoned decisions. I d...
by peteyperson
Sat Feb 05, 2005 4:23 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Is Your Dividend Income Protected by a Moat?
Replies: 6
Views: 15167

Excellent quote. I somewhat agree and somewhat disagree. It does depend on what stage the company is in with regard to growth opportunties. Good management can retain free cash flow and use it productively for growth rather than pay some of it back to shareholders who then pay tax on it each year. T...
by peteyperson
Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:49 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Goals in Retirement
Replies: 24
Views: 37795

BTW, as I have remarked to Rob/Hocus privately when discussing a different matter, I am very much enjoying your threads which are delving into the "softer" sides of FIRE. I don't think it hurts to add here that, when Petey said that in an e-mail to me, my response was that I very much agr...
by peteyperson
Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:46 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Goals in Retirement
Replies: 24
Views: 37795

Well I did not want to suggest a sabbatical. I think most companies are aware that many people never return after taking such time off. In any case the kind of jobs I've had to date are such that taking four weeks off together would be tough to swing and if I requested 6-8 weeks together it would ha...
by peteyperson
Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:12 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Is Your Dividend Income Protected by a Moat?
Replies: 6
Views: 15167

Is Your Dividend Income Protected by a Moat?

If there was any strategy that might be considered a push-button exercise in investing, selecting a stock for a long, attractive dividend record ought to be it. Combine decades of consistent payments, predictable dividend increases and a decent yield, and what could be left worry about? The trouble...
by peteyperson
Fri Feb 04, 2005 3:22 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 44234

Valuation-driven, contrarian investing

When thinking about valuations, 'market timing' gives smart thinking a bad name. It is a too easy way for people to quickly dismiss what otherwise might be a sound idea. The history of markets has shown that investors often discover new technology, get overly enthusiastic and buy stocks at any price...
by peteyperson
Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:14 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching: Help a New Member
Replies: 26
Views: 32967

Hi John, I have yet to read Dreman, but he is high on my list. The books I have recommended and the order in which I have recommended them was designed to be done on an easy learning curve. Dreman is probably on a par with the complexity of Bernstein. When I say complexity what I mean is that one ha...
by peteyperson
Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:36 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
Replies: 28
Views: 38480

I agree. I have a post I wrote in my head while I was out today which encapsulates my latest thinking on asset class selection and your thoughts on withdrawal rate and valuation strategies. Your post touches on this, but I will expand on that. I hope it will be provide food for thought, much nodding...
by peteyperson
Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:31 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
Replies: 28
Views: 38480

Oh very much so. I have a 5% allocation to managed timber, 2.5% of which is planned for Canada's TimberWest listed stock and the other for NZ. This is instead of Plum Creek which is out because of likely further US dollar declines as the US Gov't continues to borrow, which reduces my real return to ...
by peteyperson
Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:41 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching: Help a New Member
Replies: 26
Views: 32967

Wow, thanks to everyone who has responded. John and Hocus, your posts were very helpful, and, Petey, I especially appreciate your tutorial. I've already read it a couple of times, and I will certainly be doing so many more times. I do understand so much more now, and I'm in the process of digesting...
by peteyperson
Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:24 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Goals in Retirement
Replies: 24
Views: 37795

Re: Goals in Retirement


by peteyperson
Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:43 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: FIRE - How to spend your time, part 2
Replies: 5
Views: 12322

I don't have anything to say in reply other than that was a good post. :lol: Petey When both of my parents were working, my mother would complain that she never had time to do watercolors, and that was what she would do when she retired. My father wisely replied that if she really wanted to do water...
by peteyperson
Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:40 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How I spend my post-FIRE time
Replies: 70
Views: 72717

Yes, this is always the trade off. Time for money and how many years are left to enjoy it. I like the idea of learning about investing because it can cut down the time to reach financial independence and provide more motivation to earn more to get there sooner to whatever degree achievable. This is ...
by peteyperson
Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:14 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Dividend payout ratios over history. Other div. stuff.
Replies: 3
Views: 5752

I would say that is true but it depends on the level of buybacks. Timberland just bought back 4% of their stock and have done so for a couple of years now. This is a smart use of their excess cash flow as growth in the US has slowed and they can only invest internationally so fast. This boosts their...