Search found 278 matches

by Mike
Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:11 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: High Dividend Strategies
Replies: 70
Views: 87259

The 3 1/3% yield that BigCharts lists for DVY is curiously close to the yield that Vanguard lists for annuities with simulated inflation adjustment. There doesn't seem to be any way to get around today's low yields affecting pay out ratios. Comparing inflation adjusted annuity yield with non inflati...
by Mike
Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:38 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: High Dividend Strategies
Replies: 70
Views: 87259

It makes sense to select high-dividend stocks for stock allocations considering today's prices. Is there any way to estimate how high dividend strategies have performed on a total return basis compared to TSM? Dogs of the Dow research would tend to indicate a favorable comparison. I have seen resea...
by Mike
Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:08 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Next Great Bubble Boom
Replies: 8
Views: 11862

...social security payouts for everyone will fall further and further behind the consumer price index. The United States has a long history of debasing the currency in times of stress. Way back in the beginning Congress paid the revolutionary war debt with a currency called Continentals, which soon...
by Mike
Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:25 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Next Great Bubble Boom
Replies: 8
Views: 11862

The trend would seem to be towards higher taxes and lower Social Security/Medicare benefits. The economy and stock market may also tank as they have in Japan.
by Mike
Fri Sep 17, 2004 2:41 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Next Great Bubble Boom
Replies: 8
Views: 11862

The Next Great Bubble Boom

I perused Harry S Dent's new book. He still thinks demographics will keep the bull going through 2009, but now he thinks the decennial cycle is more powerful than the demographic cycle (stocks perform better in the 2nd half of the decade due to corporate managers using 10 year plans that come to fru...
by Mike
Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:32 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: "Money" Breaks Ranks
Replies: 42
Views: 32412

Thanks John.
by Mike
Fri Sep 10, 2004 1:41 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: "Money" Breaks Ranks
Replies: 42
Views: 32412

From this Hulbert suggest that it is fair to predict that newsletters will do great if the market's performance during the next decade is bearish and similar to that of the past five years.
Does this include momentum newsletters such as No Load Fund X and Sound Mind Investing?
by Mike
Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:46 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: When Rebalancing Is Not Rebalancing
Replies: 4
Views: 6469

He has created strategy index funds with annual fees (apparently) of 1.25%
The last I heard he had switched to an on line newsletter format that tells you what to buy because of the funds high expense ratio. I think the funds still exist though.
by Mike
Tue Aug 24, 2004 5:34 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: "Money" Breaks Ranks
Replies: 42
Views: 32412

I heard in the 60's... The 60s were a good time to be accumulating stocks at the beginning of a person's career, but a bad time to retire. Youngters just starting out might be in good shape accumulating now, but a someone retiring could be in a bit of trouble becuase of today's low dividend yield. ...
by Mike
Wed Aug 18, 2004 8:03 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

The stock market is significantly smaller than the bond market and niches such as gold are much, much smaller. The destruction of bonds as an asset class has prevented many savers from keeping up with inflation. A large number seem to have found refuge in real estate, since they can keep the price ...
by Mike
Wed Aug 18, 2004 7:52 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

The aggressive investor (ala Ben) would be thinking 25% stocks and waiting.
Ben seems to vary equity based upon valuation, sounds familiar.
by Mike
Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:03 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

I believe that the "Stocks for the Long Run" paradigm is in its twilight... You are probably right, but I am wondering where investors will go next. In the post depression era, investors required stocks to have a yield greater than "safe" bonds. In the post high inflation era, b...
by Mike
Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:06 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Truth about High Dividends
Replies: 24
Views: 22244

It is my understanding that Jim started several mutual funds that implement his strategy. I don't think they have done 4 times as well as the S&P. The books are interesting though.
by Mike
Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:24 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Truth about High Dividends
Replies: 24
Views: 22244

Value has a better track record than growth, so these results do not surprise me. Merck has an interesting yield. I shall ponder it.
by Mike
Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:16 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Cancel SWR? Go Target!
Replies: 13
Views: 11077

I would think many ER's don't match Vanguard's assumptions. I would guess they base their calculations upon the standard retirement age, with its related life expectency. ERs would have to figure out how to adjust their own allocations based upon their extended life expectency. Recent research on t...
by Mike
Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:48 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Cancel SWR? Go Target!
Replies: 13
Views: 11077

Vanguard seems to change stock/TIPS allocations based strictly upon age. Recent research is investigating the effects of changing allocations based upon market value.
by Mike
Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:08 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Cancel SWR? Go Target!
Replies: 13
Views: 11077

I was not aware that Vanguard specified what a safe withdrawal rate from their target fund is.
by Mike
Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:44 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Surviving Rates versus Half Failure Rates
Replies: 19
Views: 12838

I think this means that with 50% initial equity, and 5% of current balance withdrawn, not rebalancing produces more return . This makes sense. Starting with low initial equity exposure protects against downdrafts in the first years of retirement, and gradually increasing equity as time goes on incre...
by Mike
Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:47 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: CTVR80 versus Earnings Yield
Replies: 43
Views: 30892

1.9% This is the dividend yield plus a little bit, the same as previous calculations. It seems to be a fairly consistent number.
by Mike
Sun Jul 25, 2004 5:22 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Deluxe Calculator V1.0A
Replies: 1
Views: 5530

Thank you John.