Search found 84 matches
- Sun Jun 01, 2003 10:45 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Portfolio failure
- Replies: 29
- Views: 21510
Bookm wrote: Would I be correct to believe that these two factors (withdrawal rate and allocation) are equally important? Absolutely! And I would add valuations to make it a triumverate. Valuations affect asset allocation which affects withdrawal rate which affects . . . That's why rules of thumb l...
- Sat May 31, 2003 1:41 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Poll results tmf fire board: swr
- Replies: 9
- Views: 8474
- Thu May 29, 2003 9:02 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
- Replies: 128
- Views: 82272
I wrote: Is the assumption of a mean 9% return too high for today's valuations? What would happen if the mean were dropped to the 6 or 7% we've been hearing about lately? I downloaded gummy's spreadsheets and played with them. I used 7% mean returns and 15% SD with a 4% withdrawal rate and 2% infla...
- Thu May 29, 2003 8:34 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
- Replies: 128
- Views: 82272
- Thu May 29, 2003 12:31 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
- Replies: 128
- Views: 82272
Gummy wrote: I'm not sure I understand the question. The chart says that, at year 20 (for example), those investors that survived that far had an average current withdrawal rate of (about) 4.5%. I'm sorry. I understand that graph (with 4 columns representing each decade). The graph I don't understa...
- Thu May 29, 2003 12:11 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
- Replies: 128
- Views: 82272
gummy: Here's the distribution of final 40-year portolios (for our 10,000 investors): I'm not sure how to read the graph. Is it saying that at 6% of the original portfolios failed, that 3% of them had $10 million and that 1% of them had $20 million? Sorry for my ignorance. Is the assumption of a me...
- Wed May 28, 2003 12:06 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Future Proceedings on the SWR Matter
- Replies: 21
- Views: 19357
- Sun May 25, 2003 2:56 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88880
- Sun May 25, 2003 3:02 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88880
I believe that one of the purposes that JWR1945 might have had in mind in starting this thread was to get people to agree to the definition of an SWR And we're doing so well at it. :wink: Wait until we get to discussions of asset allocation. :shock: Am I a semantic trapper? I find myself understand...
- Fri May 23, 2003 10:28 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88880
Even with a MC result accounting for known factors and successful in 95% of runs, we will have basically no idea if it will be safe in the future. This makes it essentially a well refined rule of thumb. I agree with this statement. The assertion that we can reduce SWR to a mathematical equation app...
- Wed May 21, 2003 3:33 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Termination of TMF Posting Privileges--Mine!
- Replies: 21
- Views: 19739
- Fri May 16, 2003 8:03 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Low probability of FIRE
- Replies: 38
- Views: 27609
Many of today's three-car garages occupy 900 square feet, just about the average size of an entire home in the 1950s. Both of my grandparents' houses were in this neighborhood. I hadn't really thought about it but that is where my parents were raised in the 40s and 50s. I loved visiting them and ne...
- Fri May 16, 2003 8:59 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Low probability of FIRE
- Replies: 38
- Views: 27609
- Thu Jan 30, 2003 7:21 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: hocus's puzzle
- Replies: 30
- Views: 22687
- Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:24 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: hocus's puzzle
- Replies: 30
- Views: 22687
- Tue Jan 28, 2003 12:24 pm
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: hocus makes gutsy offer
- Replies: 18
- Views: 27335
being excluded from TMF's select list was not the reason I left. I left because of TMF chose to have a select list. This is my feeling exactly. If they had merely instituted fees, and made everyone pay them, I would still be there. I do not mind paying for access to something I enjoy, and have long...
- Mon Jan 27, 2003 2:00 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: From "That Other Board"
- Replies: 15
- Views: 12267
- Sat Jan 25, 2003 2:19 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: hocus's puzzle
- Replies: 30
- Views: 22687
- Fri Jan 24, 2003 1:24 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: hocus's puzzle
- Replies: 30
- Views: 22687
I tend to think the bubble / crash cycle will prove to be the dominant force over the next few years rather than the demographics. The demographics may cause the crash to be in slower motion than otherwise, though. You make a very good point here. Bernstein argued for the importance of demographics...
- Fri Jan 24, 2003 1:09 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The purpose of SWR analysis
- Replies: 18
- Views: 15492