NoFeeBoards.com!

Hi Andrew, I'm kind of lost here -- I thought one of the main objections raised on this board regarding the SWR studies was that they didn't include enough data points to be statistically valid. Now that the TMF REHP's leader has added more data points, it appears that what he did wasn't quite what ...

Just when I thought the historical data could take no more abuse, the TMF REHP's leader comes up with this gratuitious analysis: The 'Mother-Of-All' Safe Withdrawal Studies http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=18295011 This is a study of SWR's is based on examining each month as a start date, not ...

Good luck, hocus. BTW anyone thinking of living off of their investments, particularly those looking to retire early, needs to read hocus' "Coin Toss" post from the TMF referenced earlier in this thread. This is truly a classic look at market risk. I can see why it got 80+ recs. Great job!...

hocus, Sounds good to me. I also like Chris's & Chocokitty's suggestion of a summary statement at the beginning since some people will balk at a long post if they don't know right up front what the gist of the matter is. I would also consider adding a statement that if someone over there wants t...

Hi Chris,

p.s. Raddr, thanks for your response to my post about multiplying the chance of portfolio failure by life expectancy. Your explanations illuminated the issue for me.

Hey, no problem. You'll undoubtedly have the opportunity at some point soon to educate me on something.

I have posted links to wide jpgs that have resulted in a need to scroll. I don't know how th tell in advance if this will happen. Right click on the image, choose "Properties", and look at "Dimensions" for pixel size. Most monitors will display an 800X600 image fine. If it is mu...

one of the statistical types can also give a brief thumbnail on hypotheses, null hypotheses, normal distributions, requirements for rejection of the null hypothesis, confidence intervals, and the like. Unfortunately, the nature of the data overlap doesn't allow for classic statistical analysis to t...

hocus, What I am trying to nail down here is whether, given the two links I provided in my earlier post, is there any possible way to read this in which intercst is not engaging in deliberate deception? As little respect as I have for the guy and as sure as I am that he does deliberately deceive at ...

hocus, You owe me one, man. :wink:I stooped low enough to sign up for a 30 day free trial at TMF so I could read the links. :oops: The first bit of misinformation: Using the UP-1984 Mortality Table we get the following: A 59-year-old has a 1% chance (99th percentile) of living another 40 years to ag...

One of the criticisms that has been raised re the intercst SWR study (but not by me) is that it is produced through DataMining, and therefore the results are not reliable. Intercst acknowledges that the study is an exercise in datamining, but defends his use of this statistical technique in this pa...

Hi RK, welcome to the board! :D I think that what your really getting into here is the essence of Monte Carlo analysis. If you go to one of the websites that uses this technique, you will see that the max SWR is under 3%. Yes but there are problems with Monte Carlo analysis, namely lack of mean reve...

hi hocus, I wouldn't worry about it too much. I know I have been guilty of bashing the person in question from the REHP but what I have said about him is true. He personally attacked me over there which is something I've never participated in so I left. You'll find that ES, and just as importantly t...

wanderer, raddr, fmo - we really need to somehow model cash flows from real estate. I guess the starting point would be reit returns and modify them for varying levels of leverage and locations. I agree. I'd be glad to look at REITS but you guys would need to look at direct RE ownership. Your job wi...

wanderer, another thing we haven't looked at is maintaining a VERY low expense ratio for the first couple of years of ER. Alas, I've looked at this and it really doesn't help a much as you'd think. :oops: I'll dig back through my data and see what I can come up with. What % WR were you proposing ear...

wanderer, where are the alternative asset classes, with alternative risk and return characteristics being considered. i believe the trinity folks looked into this. I believe that this is where the action is. IIRC the Trinity study included generic small caps but didn't consider value stocks, int'l, ...

Chris, The odds of living more than 50 additional years at age 40 are small. The odds of a 50 year dual portfolio failing to last 50 years are small (hopefully as designed). As such, the odds of both happening to you would be extremely small (e.g. 10% chance of each happening results in a 1% chance ...

John, Nice work :!: Now that I've had a chance to examine it in detail here's my take plus a few questions: Unfortunately, it is the "early" failures that are the real retirement wreckers. I was hoping for a better showing early on by sparing the stock portion of the portfolio from withdra...

5. The years 1965, 1966, 1968 and 1969 showed up consistently as horrible start years. The years 1929 and 1937 also showed up as horrible start years, but to a lesser extent. This brings up one of many fallacies perpetrated by intercst over at the REHP. In defending his 4% "safe" rate he ...

Ben, The only argument I see against these being pretty much the same as historical returns is that it ignores (the debatable) mean reversion. That is, if mean reversion (or a valuation effect) helped pull the market out from the depths of single digit PEs seen at the end of the 1929 and 1972 bears,...

w, but that would be "worse than the past" cuz you should expect 7% pa added due to an expanded multiple - cuz that's what happened in the really awful past. Actually part of the 7% pa (or whatever the real number is) includes the multiple expansion to the tune of about 1% per year IIRC. I...