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The correct answer is 3.51% over 55 years assuming that you can still get a 2.7% real return in the future. What raddr overlooked is the return of capital. The final balance is zero when one calculates safe withdrawal rates. Oops :shock: You're right of course. I forgot to include the capital erosi...

hocus, it's important to understand that you need not apply safe withdrawal rate analysis to your entire portfolio Certainly true. I believe that what you are getting at when you say "you've got to" have a large equity allocation is that there is a price to be paid for abstaining from high...

hocus, The "forest"-- the point of all this analysis--is to figure out what stock allocation yields the quickest and safest early retirement. It sure ain't 74 percent stocks. I don't think anyone will want to argue that point after what has been demonstrated in the work we have done here. ...

fmo and es are showing alarming trends toward productivity.

LOL! Must be some kind of disease. I think I've already been vaccinated, tho.

I'm afraid I misspoke a bit when I took Mr. Bogle to task for this: And long-term records show that corporate profits grow at the same rate as gross domestic product. This statement is technically true. Unfortunately, however, the same can't be said of per share corporate profits which lag GDP by ab...

hocus:Someone needs to provide me a good reason why we should walk away from one wonderful resource [the TMF board] just because El Supremo has been kind enough to create a second one for us. JWR1945: My answer is exhaustion. ES: I have every confidence that our boards here will surpass(If they hav...

Ben, Plus, I'd rather use the historic earnings growth rather than his estimate of 6%. He just seems way to optimistic, and I don't understand it. I respect John Bogle and admire the way he's taken the mutual fund industry to task for putting their greed above investor's interest. I can only hope he...

Ben, He's way wrong: Market returns come from two simple sources: One is investment or economic return, which includes dividends. Right now, the average dividend yield is about 2%, and future earnings growth has been estimated at about 6%. So we're expecting an 8% investment return in the years ahea...

John, Consider this description: There are three major components. The first is the underlying behavior of stocks. The second is an ordinary random fluctuation. The third is similar to noise after passing through a low pass filter...with significant components at periods near 26 years. There is also...

I guess the broader market is quite a bit better off, I guess, but I don't know where to find TSM earnings for the last 10 years. Do you? Or anyone else? John Bogle has been talking about valuations being back down to pretty much normal, but I'm not sure what he's talking about specifically. I don'...

John, When I have mentioned 4 or 5 years...and the fault is mine for being unclear...I have not been thinking of something that is driven by time. I have been thinking of something related to infrequent events. I am excluding more rapid changes. I am not requiring that any changes take place. Just t...

me: I think that the most promising approach is diversification to other asset classes. For example, according to my calculations a portfolio equally split between S&P500, EAFE, ScV, and TIPS would've raised the SWR a full point for 30-50 year time periods since 1927 . hocus: My biggest criticis...

Hi John, BTW, if it is not yet obvious to you, this is why I am keenly interested in your developing an additional Monte Carlo model. What exactly did you have in mind? I can probably come up with something if you have a specific hypothesis in mind. I submit that BenSolar's proof that lower stock al...

Hi Ben, Thanks for the repost of your data. It will take me some time to digest it all. It would appear at first glance that dynamic allocation (PE10 switching) probably doesn't significantly raise the SWR but more work needs to be done, no? Currently we are at PE (10) of about 23. Before this July ...

Hi John, nice post. 3. We can vary allocations. a) Ben Solar has been doing outstanding research in this area. b) He has shown that allocation shifts based on stock market valuation produce significantly improved (historical) safe withdrawal rates. Where can I find his research? I'm skeptical of the...

ES, Don't ever doubt the appreciation I have for your help in getting this thing off the ground. Anything I would try to write here would be pathetic compared to what you really deserve so I'll just say THANKS! I wouldn't be here if it wasn't for you starting the MSN site and wanderer ("super r...

hocus, Thanks for your very nice remarks and TMF membership offer. I must, however, decline rejoining TMF. Recently I signed up for the 30 free trial to see what was going on over there and, frankly, I was appalled. Not only did I see ridiculous attacks on you as a person but on others as well. In a...

To further address the question of how significant a few data points are I did a little experiment. I postulated that we could take the SWR from either every 8th or 5th starting year for a 30 year pay out period starting in 1871 which yields 13 and 19 data points, respectively, which we will treat a...

I'd be interested in seeing graph chart of those autocorrelations by year out if you could produce one pretty easily, but don't bother if it's any trouble. Unfortunately, it would be pretty hard to do. :cry: I don't have an automated way to calculate the data - I had to do the few points presented ...

Hi Ben, However, I believe that some have looked at the correlation of h-SWRs year to year, and there is a strong correlation. (Anyone know a good link?) I bet that once you get out to where they are sharing 1/2 their years or less there is little correlation. This would be useful to study further, ...