Search found 265 matches
- Wed May 28, 2003 3:26 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: May 13, 2002
- Replies: 17
- Views: 13829
Re: May 13, 2002
That's correct. "100% safe" in terms of the safe withdrawal studies means that the selected withdrawal rate survived all the pay out periods examined from 1871 to 2000 . If you are predicting that something worse than the crash of 1929, World War II, or the Reagan or Clinton presidencies,...
- Wed May 28, 2003 3:49 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
- Replies: 128
- Views: 82033
- Tue May 27, 2003 4:30 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88546
- Tue May 27, 2003 3:31 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88546
- Mon May 26, 2003 4:12 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88546
It may be that the data does not support the 4 percent assumption. I honestly do not know. Nor do I. I'm pretty sure though that long term housing would rise roughly in line with inflation, i.e. close to zero real appreciation. If, for example, a house worth 100K today appreciates at a real rate of...
- Sun May 25, 2003 10:49 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88546
A final point that it might be a good idea to bring out now is that I assume a 4 percent real return on the value of my residence. I realize that this approach is not the one taken by many others. But I don't believe it is so unreasonable. I believe that my overall plan has enough safety featues th...
- Sun May 25, 2003 5:10 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88546
In the past, Hocus has taken intercst to task for lack of statistical significance in his results apparently (?) not realizing that regardless of the amount of historical data, application to the future is uncertain. I am not sure that he understands that the limitations in mc analysis. Specificall...
- Sat May 24, 2003 7:14 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88546
- Sat May 24, 2003 5:33 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88546
- Sat May 24, 2003 4:16 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88546
Quote: Your post noted one reason why the intercst claims don't work even if future returns are as good as past returns. The odds are good that the sequencing of returns will be less favorable. That's an extremely powerful point, in my view. Hocus, what are those odds exactly? Approximately 75-80%:...
- Fri May 23, 2003 10:38 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
- Replies: 125
- Views: 88546
The concept of SWR has saved a number of peoples' financial lives because the very recent conventional wisdom was withdrawals in the 7-10% range. Studies like the Trininty study and intercst's work showed that to be untrue. But to extend their work to apply it with certainty to the future would be ...
- Thu May 22, 2003 3:21 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Termination of TMF Posting Privileges--Mine!
- Replies: 21
- Views: 19589
In a strange kind of way it is not that much of a setback. The people at the REHP are still obsessed with trying to ridicule hocus and all Safe Withdrawal Rate investigations at this board. I attribute that to their lack of ideas. But the more that they rant about how horrible we are, the more that...
- Tue May 20, 2003 3:04 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: REHP obsession
- Replies: 6
- Views: 6601
REHP obsession
It only took a few hours for one of the obsessed posters at the REHP to pounce on this topic: http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=19073659
Those people need to get a life. :lol:
Those people need to get a life. :lol:
- Tue May 20, 2003 7:50 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Termination of TMF Posting Privileges--Mine!
- Replies: 21
- Views: 19589
- Wed Apr 09, 2003 4:15 am
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: A legend in our time
- Replies: 6
- Views: 12841
Re: A legend in our time
JWR1945 wrote: wanderer will soon be a legend on these boards.
Have fun.
John R.
He already is a legend. Keep it coming, wanderer.
- Sat Feb 15, 2003 8:52 am
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: A new beginning.
- Replies: 9
- Views: 16515
Hi ES, As you know, NFB is my home now and will stay that way as long as you are in charge. :D You also know that my primary interest is the FIRE board and in just 2-3 months of existence it is already the best such board on the 'net IMHO. As for the REHP, I can peek in but can't post there which I ...
- Mon Feb 10, 2003 5:25 pm
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: It's over at TMF. For most of us.
- Replies: 22
- Views: 31504
- Sat Feb 08, 2003 7:29 am
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: If you build it, they will come!
- Replies: 17
- Views: 25086
- Sat Feb 08, 2003 7:04 am
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: It's over at TMF. For most of us.
- Replies: 22
- Views: 31504
- Thu Feb 06, 2003 5:12 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: a humble plea, FIRE fans
- Replies: 15
- Views: 14850
W, As usual, you're the voice of reason. :idea: I don't care if anyone crosslinks any of my NFB posts over at TMF if they find it to have substance or supports an argument that they are trying to make. I agree that a post of a personal nature shouldn't be crosslinked if it gives the appearance of su...