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Great post, raddr. I second ben's thoughts. :) I think it's a fair assumption that the widespread availability of low cost mutual funds, and the widespread 'knowledge' that stocks offer the highest return have raised the long term average valuation of the stock martket. Over Shiller's data I think t...

I looked at Schiller's paper and, as I suspected, he acknowledges the pitfalls of using nonindependent data. He shows through Monte Carlo simulation that the predictive ability of the PE10 ratio is for real but that you can't rely on conventional descriptive statistics for confidence intervals such...

The data overlap I've alluded to above invalidates the regressions performed on the other board and linked to by Ben in the first post. From the link I provided in the thread it appears that by year 10 most of the autocorrelation has resolved between consecutive SWR data points. With this in mind i...

When looking at the relationship between Historical Database Rates and P/E10, it is important to focus on the earnings yield (100/[P/E10] ) instead of P/E10. There is a theoretical reason for doing so. Earnings yield support dividends and dividends support Safe Withdrawal Rates. Doing this avoids a...

John has put up a very interesting post on the SWR Research board. I'd be interesting in hearing comments from those who don't post there, especially raddr. :)

When I looked at the bottom chart at: http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/pestudy1.html ...there seemed to be an inflection point around P/E 10 of 18 to 20 where the downward sloping red line should move an a slightly lesser angle. It of course makes sense that the HDBR would go asymptotic approachi...

Hi John, This looks interesting. :Up I'm not a statistician, though and I don't understand what you are doing here: I used the equations for the straight lines to calculate standard deviations. I put the values of earning yield into the equations (of the straight lines), subtracted each Historical D...

PS The lame responses from intercst and others about how intercst has already looked into valuation yada yada yada were almost enough to make me jump into the fray, but revisiting that circus act has about the same appeal as visiting the dentist.

He's posting under his real name even though he was banned a few months ago! Notice the length of the post. :lol: :lol: Pretty funny. Will he be able to contain himself and not get kicked off? Or will someone complain and get him kicked off regardless. That post was longer than most short stories, ...

Rental real estate is an excellent investment for those with the temperament and savvy to pick and manage rentals. I know people who have done quite well with these. I don't own any myself, because I don't have the temperament to do so. However, for those who do, it can be an excellent investment. ...

I wrote:he has apparently been posting there under the alias McBeaned for quite a while, making funny comments on the whole undying hocus mania on that board. The cat is out of the bag now.

I hope they don't kill McBeaned over this. Nice to see hocus showing a side that isn't SWR obsessed.

ataloss wrote:I have done that post to board when I meant to send as a pm

Me too.

Ken Fisher has remarked on the relationship between Baa bond yield and S&P 10 year returns. I'm not impressed by Fishers analysis: There is no right way to make long-term market forecasts, as opposed to guesses. Those who say they "know" where stocks will be in 2014 are telling you mo...

Hocus has informed me on the TMF REHP board (in a post he apparently intended to email only) that his position on 'hSWR' hasn't changed. I think hocus makes a good point here :lol: Pretty funny, he has apparently been posting there under the alias McBeaned for quite a while, making funny comments on...

That said, both raddr and BenSolar have made big mistakes in the course of this thing. The idea that BenSolar was pushing for awhile, that we should put little "h's" and little "f's" in front of the capital letters "SWR" was a disaster. That lost us a lot of time. His ...

These results have surprised me greatly. I had expected only to show that a 100% commercial paper portfolio is sometimes superior to an 80% stock / 20% commercial paper portfolio, as it was in 1965, 1966, 1968 and 1969. ... Look back into the years just before the twentieth century. Commercial pape...

These tables are great, John! Very interesting and useful to have them collected here like this. The relationship between PE-10 and long term returns is laid out very nicely indeed.

Wow, John!

That is a lot of work! :Up

Interesting how low an allocation to stocks is 'optimal' when valuation is in the middle.

Regards,

Portfolio A: Stocks and Commercial Paper with P/E10 thresholds of 11 and 21. Stock allocations are 100%-40%-0%. The Historical Database Rates with switching range from 5.1% to 12.1% for the years 1921-1980. They range from 4.9% to 12.1% for the years 1871-1980. Portfolio B: Stocks and 2% TIPS with ...

I have discovered that the original calculator had not actually implemented its intended two-threshold, three-allocation capability. I have now written modifications to do this. Hi John :) I was wondering if Greaney ever published your modified calculator to his web site? I remember there being an ...