Search found 231 matches

by unclemick
Tue Jan 25, 2005 6:11 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Any FIRE calcs with International market historical data ?
Replies: 14
Views: 15526

Value ala Ben Graham - is great if you can effectively capture it. Heh, heh, heh - I have no immediate plans to zip around the world like Jim Rogers of Investment Biker fame or Mark Mobius of Templeton funds. Bernstein (Efficient Frontier) used to look around the world for 'whats cheap' --?price to ...
by unclemick
Tue Jan 25, 2005 4:22 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Any FIRE calcs with International market historical data ?
Replies: 14
Views: 15526

Two former hot markets - Egypt and Argentina come readily to mind. Here's my question: how well does the asset class of interest treat investors - both foreign and domestic - so they can capture 'the other part of MPT' aka the expected long term growth rate. Chickenheartedness prompts me to ask: wou...
by unclemick
Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:16 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Any FIRE calcs with International market historical data ?
Replies: 14
Views: 15526

No and yes - depending on which study you read. Don't have any links handy. But my vague - don't take this as gospel memory says: Correlation numbers necessary to make a mutli - asset portfolio work have a tendancy to disappear when you need them most - so international doesn't help. Most of the tim...
by unclemick
Sat Jan 22, 2005 4:54 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

Second That

You guys are on a roll. Keep up the good work.
by unclemick
Fri Jan 21, 2005 5:07 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

I guess I'm quasi -gummy: portfolio yield plus lagniappe. All those various SWR calc.'s are there as guide posts so I stay on the playing field. Dumb question - does GARCH or er the calcs posted here pick up major inflection points? Media pontification/speculation goes on and on about the awaited ri...
by unclemick
Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:09 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The year 2000 retiree status
Replies: 24
Views: 21053

I was under some Harry Browne influence in the 1980's. 7-8 asset classes outside of my 401k.
by unclemick
Thu Jan 20, 2005 5:30 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: A Hand Calculation for 2000 to 2005.
Replies: 15
Views: 12541

Careful Hocus - slicing and dicing is addictive like caffeine in coffee - I was there in the 1980's/early 90's before I became a 'born again Boglehead'. With 75% Vg Lifestrategy mod (not a 'pure' 60/40) plus REIT's and dividend stocks - even I am backsliding somewhat. Seriously - the big benefit of ...
by unclemick
Wed Jan 19, 2005 6:16 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: A Hand Calculation for 2000 to 2005.
Replies: 15
Views: 12541

Chickenheartedness being my favorite investment theory(at least currently). Bogle, JWR and Ben notwithstanding, if I couldn't make the portfolio yield do the work of 40k(by being cheap), then I would change the portfolio to up the yield. Still old school - heh,heh,heh. Doesn't mean it wouldn't work ...
by unclemick
Wed Jan 19, 2005 5:00 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 39905

Real estate probably deserves it's own thread. The math is different. Alas - it seems to be be harder to to discuss. Perhaps the -location ,location,location thing - or maybe us stock cats are just naturally longer winded. Down payment, cash flow, expenses, depreciation, etc, etc seem straight forwa...
by unclemick
Wed Jan 19, 2005 4:39 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Sanity check on investment ideas
Replies: 24
Views: 20954

Back to chickenheartedness as an investment theme - being in retirement - ?? is it timing or valuation?? - watching the 'general' level of dividends - which have a 'rough' correlation with valuation. There may be times when this relationship has broken down in history. But being a Boglehead - I usua...
by unclemick
Tue Jan 18, 2005 4:55 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Sanity check on investment ideas
Replies: 24
Views: 20954

Take the following tongue in cheek (since I don't always follow my own advice). Remember POGO - you are now free to look in the mirror and decide who you are - and can blissfully ignore any advice that doesn't suit your truck. Now that Vanguard has 'retired' Bogle - they suffer from a serious lack o...
by unclemick
Mon Jan 17, 2005 4:26 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 39905

Heh,heh,heh - am I sneaky or what - if you follow Bogle's method of hand grenade arithmatic - you can see some of the same valuation conclusions/difficulties identified by SWR Research. The 5% as defined by the IRS to stay 'philanthropic' - i.e. not taxed - is a tough bogey in today's market. Bogle ...
by unclemick
Mon Jan 17, 2005 7:40 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 39905

One more thing - for those 5% cats with nerves of steel:

Bogle Financial Markets Research Center under archived speeches - The Investment Dilemma of The Philanthropic Investor( October 31, 2002).

Hint - it's 60/40 if you plan to live forever and take out 5%. I like Bogle but trusting my nerves???
by unclemick
Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:20 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 39905

Hocus You've hit the nail on the head. I enjoyed being a 'cheap SOB' (er frugal) so much the first eleven years in ER that there is a reluctance to change - even though we're currently underspending our income and not yet tapping IRA's. Not ready to give up 'old school' - two philosophies competing ...
by unclemick
Sun Jan 16, 2005 3:18 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 39905

Ben

Does DVY have an overseas equivalent or something that might do a similar job?
by unclemick
Sun Jan 16, 2005 7:56 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 39905

For the widows and orphans out there - picked up in bits and pieces over 15 yrs - no particalur size and never rebalanced: utilities: Dominion Resources, Empire District Electric, Consolidated Edison, Exelon, National Fuel Gas, Keyspan Energy. oils: Exxon Mobil, Chevron Texaco Telephone: Verizon, SB...
by unclemick
Sat Jan 15, 2005 1:25 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 39905

Two thoughts (which I don't always follow - emotion being what it is). For current background - read Bernstein's Winter 2005 Efficient Frontier - Jason Zwieg's discussion of Ben Graham. ala 'Mr Market' - 1. by holding balanced index - I'm buying when the momentum takes the market down and selling in...
by unclemick
Sat Jan 15, 2005 5:24 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 39905

BTY - ballpark 40% of taxable income 1993 vs 2003 - dividends roughly 40% of taxable income. Dividends don't have stopped toilets or A/C failures - sometimes they get cut - but I know which problems I'd rather live with. Heh,heh.
by unclemick
Sat Jan 15, 2005 5:02 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 39905

Fourth way - rental property. Early in ER still had the duplex(included in our 1992 net worth of 300k). Positive cash flow. Anyone posting here - enjoy being a landlord? - is this part time? - fun hobby? Stocks/fixed income are easier to pontificate on and spreadsheet - BUT? I actually know a few 'l...
by unclemick
Fri Jan 14, 2005 3:31 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Intercst Article on 2% SWR
Replies: 64
Views: 53758

Just came back from the mailbox with my Jan Moneypaper - their annual Dividend and Income Portfolio (since 1987). 19 stocks - yes since dereg. the number of utilities has dropped and now they are asking a minimum yield of 2% - way down from the old days - and slippped in Wriggly at 1.4%. Things are ...