Search found 231 matches

by unclemick
Fri Apr 29, 2005 5:27 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: A TIPS Ladder Example
Replies: 103
Views: 727284

Great example John. Goes a long way toward explaning why Vanguard Target Retirement Income is holding 25% Inflation protected securities. And being dividend oriented - I like the way the numbers fall. In the past - too often people pushed the current yield too hard at the expense of dividend growth(...
by unclemick
Fri Mar 25, 2005 7:53 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Not Enough Censorship
Replies: 6
Views: 19677

I stand by my original post.

Not only that: it's my world that's round - all others are flat - and there is way more than two of them.

Heh, heh, heh, heh, heh.
by unclemick
Fri Mar 25, 2005 6:03 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Not Enough Censorship
Replies: 6
Views: 19677

In an ideal world

I would prefer the long and short of it. Wherein the setup and run - including those 'long boring pointless' strings of numbers are posted. The abstract and conclusions can be put in another place where debate and the inevitible 'the world is flat' type statements can reside. Long, long ago when I m...
by unclemick
Wed Mar 23, 2005 2:11 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155899

Ah yes Nobert the financial planner cannot find anything in long pointless strings onf numbers. Whereas poor unclemick a math challenged ex left handed chemist seem to find thoughts to pursue for my ER. Perhaps after eleven years of ER, I need a planner or leader to enlighten my ignorance. Enough hu...
by unclemick
Tue Mar 22, 2005 3:54 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155899

yep

And as John often points out when working with data and attempting to apply it to your own ER - don't forget your common sense.
by unclemick
Tue Mar 22, 2005 3:41 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155899

An obsure newspaper article lost in the mists of time(Seattle?, Portland ?newspaper) pointing out the importance of dividends during bad markets. Used the metaphor of the Norwegian widow waiting by the mailbox for her deceased husband's dividend checks to arrive. I use it to keep dividends in mind r...
by unclemick
Tue Mar 22, 2005 8:24 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155899

Have faith

There will be a test: courtesy Ben Graham's Mr Market or Adam Smith's Invisible Hand.

Let's hope WE ALL PASS THE TEST!

Heh, heh, heh, heh.

This is fun.
by unclemick
Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:40 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155899

I stand by my post. And I think Bernstein may be full of it from time to time. I respect his numbers - but I came to an entirely different conclusion than he did in his 15 Stock Diversification Myth. Maybe some alpha male hormones clouding my judgement - but there it is. Number on - keep up the good...
by unclemick
Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:21 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155899

My two cents. Of course Ben and Intercst and Raddr are shooting straight. The central difficulty arises from the appearance that circa 2000 the historical trend channel was broken to the upside(in the U.S.). Add in the current low interest rate and things get chewy. The insights provided by SWR reas...
by unclemick
Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:57 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155899

And then there are old school blockheads like me who watch dividends and interest - interest and dividends - aka the income stream. Extreme diversification with a value twist is a viable alternate route - provided you keep expenses low, don't overtrade - er rebalance I mean - AND WATCH THE INCOME ST...
by unclemick
Mon Mar 21, 2005 1:48 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Conservative distribution phase portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 16701

I agree.

Do not hesitate to keep posting your thoughts.
by unclemick
Mon Mar 21, 2005 12:24 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
Replies: 30
Views: 44832

Petey

I meant the post in this thread '--some of the problems I have with the 4% number'. - and why some other things needed consideration.
by unclemick
Mon Mar 21, 2005 6:35 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
Replies: 30
Views: 44832

Hocus

I suggest you back up and read Petey's post. That is the way to approach the issue.

And then there is this other guy - Adam Smith and his 'Invisible Hand'.

Alas - he is long deceased.

Numbers rule. The other stuff is Shakespeare's - Sound and fury signifing nothing.
by unclemick
Sun Mar 20, 2005 6:30 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 23839

Shades of the Brit engineers from my working days - the Global view vs myopic American(aka me).

Anywise - this needs to be posted as a sticky or somewhere handy - so I can easy come back from time to time to refresh my memory.

Good post.
by unclemick
Sun Mar 20, 2005 3:24 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Conservative distribution phase portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 16701

Petey Here is a weird thought - remembering the old stock volitility curves - at 4 or more stocks you enter the heel of the curve. So with your estimate of 12 - 14 assets. If one got 'in' at acceptible prices (?? at the start of a primary trend??) - why rebalance in your lifetime. Just nip out a lit...
by unclemick
Sun Mar 20, 2005 3:04 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Conservative distribution phase portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 16701

Alrighty Lets nit pick a little. This be a high maintence portfoflio. Expense control might become an issue - if you fall into the trap of excessive rebalancing. However - here's what I like. In a period of stress one can sidestep market bonkers moves via the TIPs ladder and allow primary trends to ...
by unclemick
Fri Mar 18, 2005 6:36 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Power of Dumb Investing
Replies: 5
Views: 13881

Hint Vanguard Target Retirement Series - Income. Ignore the age write up. It doesn't matter if you are 45 or 65 - IF you are in retirement. Live off the current yield. Read and study - or forget it and enjoy your retirement. P.S. buried within - 20% stocks plus 25% inflation protected securicities g...
by unclemick
Thu Mar 17, 2005 8:23 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Power of Dumb Investing
Replies: 5
Views: 13881

The Power of Dumb Investing

As a take off to the annuity thread - and given the current environment.

Suppose you are planning to ER today - and have no expertise in stocks, bonds, real estate, etc., etc.

What would you do?
by unclemick
Wed Mar 16, 2005 2:34 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Fixed annuities vs TIPs
Replies: 22
Views: 36291

Ah yes - The SWAG.

Wether Bogle's method(one I like) or some of the methods employed here - we all have a future SWR either consiously or subconsiously in the way we have deployed our retirement assets.
by unclemick
Wed Mar 16, 2005 12:08 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Fixed annuities vs TIPs
Replies: 22
Views: 36291

Ran the numbers on Vanguard's site for fixed, no inflation adjustment if I converted 750k of IRA - came out ballpark 7.5% or 56k or 4666/mo. for age 62, single male. In the example I used: 750k IRA, 150k stocks, 100k timberland, 1200/mo early SS. So if the stocks, SS, and timberland were considered ...