Search found 107 matches

by gummy
Fri Jun 06, 2003 12:39 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: SWR: adjust for high valuation, or at least note risk?
Replies: 16
Views: 13150

by gummy
Thu Jun 05, 2003 11:23 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How will you use a "new/improved" swr analysis
Replies: 49
Views: 58533

KenM ... you're one wise fella :shock:

"zen of SWRs", eh?
Gotta put that here:
http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/SWR-3.htm
by gummy
Thu Jun 05, 2003 5:54 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How will you use a "new/improved" swr analysis
Replies: 49
Views: 58533

wanderer:
If I provide chapter and verse, I am engaging in "game-playing" (right?).

Why do you assume that I'm talking about you?
by gummy
Thu Jun 05, 2003 5:45 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How will you use a "new/improved" swr analysis
Replies: 49
Views: 58533

Although I promised myself I wouldn't, I really have to jump in and play in your sandbox I fail to understand why you wouldn't want to play in our sandbox. Actually, this is the most interesting discussion I've read in a long time. However, although I enjoy READING the posts, I don't enjoy particip...
by gummy
Thu Jun 05, 2003 12:50 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How will you use a "new/improved" swr analysis
Replies: 49
Views: 58533

Although I promised myself I wouldn't, I really have to jump in and play in your sandbox :^) About the Trinity Study : It shows what would have happened had you invested this way or that, in the past . It doesn't make any claims about the future. How can it possibly be "invalid"? (Unless, ...
by gummy
Tue Jun 03, 2003 5:23 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

P.S.
If'n yer curious to see my misadventures:
http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/distributions-stuff.htm
... but don't tell nobuddy.
by gummy
Tue Jun 03, 2003 4:44 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

KenM : With regard to the charts that you displayed, they're inventions(!), but are meant to illustrate the relationship between "safe" withdrawal rates and years, n: "safe" meaning 95% probability of surviving n years. If Sam has just retired and expects to drop dead in n years...
by gummy
Mon Jun 02, 2003 4:44 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

I've been following 10,000 investors, each (initially) with a $1.00 portfolio and a Withdrawal Rate of 4%, increasing at 2% per year (that's inflation) and getting a random annual return (a la Monte Carlo, selected from a lognormal distribution, Mean Return = 9%, Standard Deviation = 15%). I have th...
by gummy
Mon Jun 02, 2003 1:55 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

JWR1945 : About my question: "Anybuddy recognize the curve (outlining the final portfolio distribution)?" , you respond: My best guess is that gummy wants someone to say that it is a lognormal curve and so forth ... Actually, I have no idea what that curve is ... but I'm workin' on it :^)...
by gummy
Mon Jun 02, 2003 1:40 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

wanderer : That stuff on past-future http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/past-future.htm was written months ago, long before I knew NFB existed. I was motivated by a silly discussion on Morningstar where posters kept saying that the past is of no value in predicting the future, then suggested some opti...
by gummy
Sun Jun 01, 2003 11:55 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

I don't know how they do math in Hogsville ... my advice is that you be careful with gadgetry of the financial or mathematical variety I've been preaching "be careful with financial or mathematical gadgetry" for years. I get an uncomfortable feeling that my pedagogical skills are fading. ...
by gummy
Sun Jun 01, 2003 1:58 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

When you retire, don't trust some historically generated SWR rot.


Neat! I had to stick it here:
http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/past-future.htm
by gummy
Fri May 30, 2003 11:57 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

Some interesting numbers:
Over the last six years (May 1/97 - May 1/03) the S&P 500 annualized return was 2.3%. Scary, eh?

It's even more scary if we use this as a Monte Carlo input in order to generate a SWR.

Mamma mia! Forget retirement. Work until you drop.
by gummy
Fri May 30, 2003 11:04 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

hocus : Thanks for the links. (I've bookmarked them.) At first blush, it seems you can get Bernstein's 2% simply by making the Expected Annual Return "input" (to our blackbox) something smaller than the normal 10% "input". Although I once wrote a tutorial on Gordon's Equation (I...
by gummy
Fri May 30, 2003 9:14 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

I apologize in advance for another Sam & Sally story, but ... Sam : "In a thousand tosses of a coin, how many heads would one expect?" Sally : "That's easy! It's five hundred!" John tosses a thousand time and gets 678 heads. Sally : "Oops. I guess I was wrong." Whic...
by gummy
Fri May 30, 2003 9:02 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

ataloss : I am looking forward seeing how we input guesses (or estimates as some prefer) and get "one correct answer"... Getting a "correct answer" is easy. (Gimme some numbers, I'll crunch 'em ... and give y'all a "correct answer".) Alas, the hard part is defining &qu...
by gummy
Fri May 30, 2003 8:11 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

hocus : Both plan to take 4 percent withdrawals from their portfolios ... And how did they arrive at this 4%? My question is: "How does one generate a SWR? What information is required?" Yours seems to be: "Having decided upon a withdrawal rate, how does one determine the probability...
by gummy
Fri May 30, 2003 6:17 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

hocus : Include in the mathematical calculations data on all the factors that determine the answer to the Question you are trying to answer. I must be slow, but, so that I might (more clearly) understand the point you're making (regarding mathematically generated SWR s), maybe we could agree that a...
by gummy
Fri May 30, 2003 1:36 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

Results were awful. 33.65% of the original portfolios failed in 40 years. Interesting, eh? I ran the "sensible withdrawals" spreadsheet and found that, choosing 4% (initial) withdrawal rate, actual inflation rates and random annual returns from Small Cap Growth returns (for the years 1928...
by gummy
Fri May 30, 2003 1:04 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation-Part 2
Replies: 128
Views: 81833

WiseNLucky: I'm not sure how to read the graph. Is it saying that at 6% of the original portfolios failed, that 3% of them had $10 million and that 1% of them had $20 million? Aah, now I understand! (It's that creeping senility ag'in. Sometimes I don't even understand the missus.) Anyway, it's my f...