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hocus, maybe you can tell me if I got this right: Suppose that, sometime in the future (year 19N0), there was a E10/P of 5.3%. You look at the data and find that E10/P was also 5.3% in 1973. The SWR (HSWR80) for 1973 was 4.6%. Relying on the E10/P relationship, you conclude that a withdrawal of 4.6%...

Aha! All this time I've completely misunderstood how you calculate those HSWR numbers ... and what they mean. I've assumed that you use past data to predict future withdrawal rates. I see that I was wrong. Your withdrawal rates are not "predictions" at all. As I now understand it, it goes ...

When I apply this procedure to recent years, I am making a prediction ... Why wouldn't you apply the procedure starting in 1960 (for example). Then you KNOW the data for the next thirty years and can check how well that prediction fared.. If I understand you correctly, you use the data for the past...

We have checked whether our approach works. Could you point me to that check? I think it would give some confidence to an individual who may use your scheme. You are asking us to ignore one of the two critical factors and see whether our approach still works. Which one? I only ask you to indicate t...

hocus: Try to imagine Sally with a spreadsheet that uses the E10/P- Valuation model you're proposing. She has all the historical data in the spreadsheet and various mathematical justifications (including HSWR data and statements about the importance of valuations and charts with regression lines and...

hocus You've got "sensible withdrawals" right. My own feeling is that you must withdraw enough to pay the bills. If that's too large a percentage, then you gotta think about selling your house and moving to a less expensive neighbourhood :D Beyond that "minimum" withdrawal, you w...

I'll keep putting your sentences into your tutorial (even though I have little understanding of the procedure). I hope that readers are smarter than I. :? If you haven't checked to see if the Calculated Rate or the Safe Withdrawal Rate or the High Risk Rate (however calculated) actually worked well ...

That's always going to be a personal judgment call, isn't it? I realize it's a judgment call, but if the stuff y'all have been working on for years doesn't give some guidance then I don't understand its usefullness. Here's something which occurs to me: Suppose that, each January (starting in Jan, 1...

Look here:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/JWR.htm#HSWR
and see if'n I got the procedure right.

In my explanation, what's N?

While implementing your own approach, consider taking advantage of the following incomplete set of software and instructions. Actually, I have no intention of doing more than providing space for your tutorial ... and maybe a few charts :D However, when I read what's there now, I say to myself: It's...

Here's something to think about: 1: We'd like to predict next year's SWR. 2: We note the intimate relationship between SWR's and E10/P ... in the past. 3: We also note that GARCH (Nobel prize, 2003) is a mechanism for predicting tomorrow's daily volatility, based upon recent daily volatility data .....

When I get a minute I'll change the HFWR charts to HSWR charts.

In the meantime, peek at this chart:


After spending a couple of weeks on GARCH (and volatility clustering) it looks so familiar!!

Okay, I see why 1920+ is better

For the three 36-years periods plotted in the above chart, the initial period (starting in 1871) is unusual 'cause it depends greatly upon which year you start.

Here's what I get for a moving 36-year window:

Imagine a NFB thread started in 1881 ...

Oops! Yes, I was using the data here http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2846 and I now see it's HFWR :? One thing I find a wee bit bothersome ... perhaps 'cause I'm short-sighted. Why do you say that after 1920 the "relationship is strongest". Are you calculating the correlation...

If (as you have said) you're using HSWR rather than HDBR, then perhaps it's better to eliminate all references to the latter. The reason I asked about JanSz: Once upon a time I was invited to join the Motley Fool. After my first post several people asked for spreadsheets on this or that. JanSz was o...

About the charts (which are presumably the main reason for calculating SWR based upon P/E 10), how about charts like so: (They're smaller and one can see several on the screen at the same time.) About the possible wordings, I'll let you guys decide :D PS#1 I still don't understand those chart labels...

Any objection to my redoing the charts with the data here?

http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2846

These old eyes ain't what they used to be
I find the current charts hard to read.

Are the labels wrong?

John, I'll keep putting the stuff here

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/JWR.htm

and you can comment, modify, etc.

... all this in a thread called GARCH

Mamma mia!
Posts at 11:25 then 11:31 then 11:33 then 11:37 then 11:39 then 11:43 then ...

One refers to "the most recent post"
then there are a couple more in between