Search found 107 matches

by gummy
Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:53 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

hocus: Here's an interesting scenario: First, look at E10/P for our 80% / 20% portfolio (1928 - 2000) The average is 7.0%. Now, assuming that we have one of those 80% / 20% portfolios, we want to increase or decrease our annual withdrawals based upon the current E10/P value. To this end, we do this:...
by gummy
Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:31 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

realize that "The SWR does indeed change with every change in valuation levels. It is constantly in flux" ... but what I was interested in is the question: Does Sally (our typical investor) change her withdrawal every year (every month?) depending upon the current E10/P level? If so, is sh...
by gummy
Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:09 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

Thanks for the history.
Do y'all have a response to what I think is my greatest concern:
... I assume that your suggestion is to ...
Change your withdrawal rate EVERY YEAR depending upon the current valuation level, namely E10/P.
Am I right in this interpretation?
by gummy
Sun Jan 23, 2005 2:56 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

P.S. If your scheme IS to change your withdrawal rate every year depending upon the latest "valuation level", then we're in total agreement :) Our disagreement may just be what one takes as the "valuation level", eh what? (For me, it's last year's portfolio return ... for whateve...
by gummy
Sun Jan 23, 2005 2:47 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

hocus: I went to sleep (after my last post) and now I wake up and realize that I don't really understand this scheme that will stand the financial world on its head. When I look back at your post (above, somewhere) you say: The number used in the conventional studies is the long-term average return ...
by gummy
Sat Jan 22, 2005 9:30 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

P.S. I said (above, somewhere), that there is little of my own stuff on my website. One of the things that I thought was my own stuff is the double rotor thingy described here: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/boat-and-wind.htm BUT, just before I wrote that long-winded post above, I read my e-mail. It was...
by gummy
Sat Jan 22, 2005 9:19 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

Hey hocus: You say (above, somewhere): I really do believe that this stuff is going to stand the world of investing on its head.. That "I believe" is a close relative to "I think" Smile The so-called experts that predict doom-and-gloom or a 40,000 DOW or whatever ... they do so w...
by gummy
Sat Jan 22, 2005 8:00 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

The tutorial (with the changes) is here:
Like my new TV, it's quite colourful :lol:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/JWR.htm

I was going to change the name from JWR.htm to NFB.htm and discover that I already have a NFB.htm

... so I thought, maybe SWR.htm, but I got me one of them too :?
by gummy
Sat Jan 22, 2005 2:28 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

hocus; I agree :D John It weren't jest one of them thar "colour" TVs (which we've had for centuries). It was one of them thar 16:9 widescreen progressive scan , rear projection 44" LCD HDTVs ... and it's beeyutiful !! On the above TV screen is a picture of our backyard ... in the days...
by gummy
Sat Jan 22, 2005 7:25 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

Considering the amount of content at your site, you rarely use the words I think. Almost all of the stuff on my website is the work of others. I just describe them in terms (hopefully!) that the average reader might understand. There are very few of my own contributions (which may explain the few &...
by gummy
Sat Jan 22, 2005 7:15 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

These matrix equations are very easy to solve.
Neat!
You get your TV-math degree :D

I've decided to (finally!) advertise your tutorial on my website.
Who knows, we might get some feedback.
by gummy
Sat Jan 22, 2005 5:45 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

Hey hocus:
Concerning "I think...",
a wise man once said:
Don't forget, gummy, this stuff may someday stand the world of conventional investing advice on its head. If that happens ...
by gummy
Sat Jan 22, 2005 1:57 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

another P.S. Since I was interested in the relationship between a year's E10/P and that years' Portfolio Return (for various portfolios) I made up a spreadsheet: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/SS/E10-P.xls I think it's quite interesting: Another thing that I find interesting (as noted in the spreadsheet...
by gummy
Sat Jan 22, 2005 1:29 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

P.S. For pedagogical reasons (when your tutorial is complete), I think I should colour the various definitions (HSWR, HFWR, Calculated Rate, Safe Withdrawal Rate, High Risk Rate, etc.) so the reader will recognize them when they occur ... as I did here (near the bottom): http://www.gummy-stuff.org/p...
by gummy
Sat Jan 22, 2005 1:14 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

Not only will your approach be simpler, it will also be better. I'm always reluctant to say "This is better than that." My usual stance is to say "I think this is better than that". I did a google search of my website for "I think": http://www.google.com/custom?q=%22I+...
by gummy
Sat Jan 22, 2005 12:55 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

Back on page 1, gummy wrote ... ... then comes stuff about colour TV. John Where's this page 1 you speak of? (The 50th birthday of colour TV was last year ... and the first sets cost about as much as a car :D ) Anyway, in my colour TV tutorial (on my website)**, I mentioned that our TV would arrive...
by gummy
Fri Jan 21, 2005 12:42 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

The thing about HDBR (or HSWR or HFWR or ...) is that they are constant withdrawal rates, fixed for thirty years. The only thing that changes the amount withdrawn is inflation. If inflation were zero, you'd withdraw a constant dollar amount each year. I'm not sure what the correlation between some c...
by gummy
Thu Jan 20, 2005 12:58 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

P.S.
Rather than going thru years of SWR research on NFB, I think I'll wait till you guys finish your tutorial

... then I'll understand everything :lol:
by gummy
Thu Jan 20, 2005 12:43 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

Here's something interesting (which y'all can probably check, just in case I goofed, which I do ... often) If E10/P is a good representation of "current valuation", then you'd think there would be some good correlation between E10/P for a given year and the market return for that year. But...
by gummy
Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:47 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 118229

oops]
Future is 20N0, not 19N0.
Sorry 'bout that