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KenM : Okay, now there's a spreadsheet which generates the portfolios and withdrawal rates for umpteen investors, at four points in time (example: 10, 20, 30 and 40 years). That's eight columns worth. Now you copy any of the eight columns, and there's another spreadsheet where you paste the column ...

... the range of 10, 20, 30, 40 year withdrawals ...

Aha! The distribution of withdrawals, NOT portfolios.
Good idea! I'll work on it.

KenM : My (current) sandbox is here: http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/SWR-3.htm At the bottom is a link to a file you can download. It unZIPs to two spreadsheets. One gives the distribution of portfolios (after 40 years). This "distribution" spreadsheet will do the earlier years too if you...

PS (again):

Anybuddy recognize the curve (outlining the final portfolio distribution)?

It must (surely) be defined by the parameters: lognormal and Mean = 9% and Standard Deviation = 15% and Inflation = 2% and years = 40 ...

Here's the distribution of final 40-year portolios (for our 10,000 investors):



Pick the one you like!

P.S. My wife cheats at canasta ...

I've been playing with a MonteCarlo/SWR spreadsheet and here's something that I found interesting: I follow 10,000 investors for 40 years, all of whom start with a 4% withdrawal rate. Withdrawals increase at an annual (inflation) rate of 2%. Annual returns are drawn (at random) from a lognormal dist...

Aha! Another thread, eh? (I bookmarked the earlier one and got lost there :^) Anyway, I think SWR is like ice cream. Everybuddy has their favourite flavour (favorite flavor). I don't think you can convince a chocolate-lover that strawberry is better. Personally, as a method for generating an SWR est...