Search found 1697 matches

by JWR1945
Thu Mar 17, 2005 2:51 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Fixed annuities vs TIPs
Replies: 22
Views: 36258

Here is what unclemick needs to know. The mathematics of annuities, bonds and mortgages are all similar for making comparisons. An actual retiree has to plan for the fortunate possibility of living longer than his life expectancy. Insurance companies take advantage of statistics. Here are the total ...
by JWR1945
Thu Mar 17, 2005 11:55 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Fixed annuities vs TIPs
Replies: 22
Views: 36258

... I think I've got a pretty good grip on what an SWR is. It's a withdrawal rate that would have been safe in hindsight (ie the past). That is the only SWR and will always be the only SWR. Beachbumz 8) Then you haven't the slightest idea of what I am talking about. This matter of definitions is cr...
by JWR1945
Thu Mar 17, 2005 11:34 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Overview: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 5
Views: 15350

Overview: Using both Initial and Current Valuations

Overview: Using both Initial and Current Valuations Scroll down to read the last two sections. Then read the entire post. Cursory Data Analysis This is a minimal review. It brings out some of the key features about the new algorithm. This provides a starting point from which to build. Withdrawals h...
by JWR1945
Tue Mar 15, 2005 8:50 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Fixed annuities vs TIPs
Replies: 22
Views: 36258

There have been a couple of swipes about my selection of data when I make calculations. Apparently, the writers think that they have a compelling argument of some sort. I chalk it up as a lack of experience in handling real world data. In any event, Gummy has provided additional insight as to how th...
by JWR1945
Tue Mar 15, 2005 8:42 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Fixed annuities vs TIPs
Replies: 22
Views: 36258

There is a need at the other forum for a descriptive reference of the Data-Based SWR Tool. Here it is.

Read my thread SWR as a Tool dated Mon Jun 14, 2004.
http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2607

Have fun.

John R.
by JWR1945
Tue Mar 15, 2005 8:39 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Fixed annuities vs TIPs
Replies: 22
Views: 36258

I have not run numbers yet. But here are a couple of conclusions. 1) Tony2002 has an excellent investment plan. It is suited for his needs. 2) Tony2002's adviser has done an outstanding job. Most likely, it is also true that Tony2002's adviser has been rewarded handsomely. Look at what Tony2002 is d...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 14, 2005 9:44 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Fixed annuities vs TIPs
Replies: 22
Views: 36258

Here is a quick, incomplete response. Gummy's wife insisted that he buy an annuity to cover part of his retirement expenses. He thought that it was a lousy idea. It turned out to be one of the best decisions that he ever made. Here are a few references from Gummy's site. Start with the Sensible With...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 14, 2005 8:43 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43690

TIPS at 2% Interest 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (5.0) or minus 5.0% in cell B17 Stocks = 50% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50% With Rebalancing Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates a...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 14, 2005 8:36 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43690

TIPS at 2% Interest 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (5.0) or minus 5.0% in cell B17 Stocks = 50% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50% With Rebalancing Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates a...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 14, 2005 8:33 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43690

2% TIPS 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (5.0) or minus 5.0% in cell B17 Stocks = 50% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50% With Rebalancing Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates are determine...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 14, 2005 8:30 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43690

Using both Initial and Current Valuationsâ€â€￾50% Stocksâ€â€￾lar

I have been looking at a new variable withdrawal algorithm. It combines conventional withdrawals, which are based only on a portfolio's initial balance, and variable withdrawals that are based on a portfolio's current balance. I used the market's earnings yield at the beginning of retirement to dete...
by JWR1945
Sun Mar 13, 2005 9:52 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Do you believe this international SWR data ?
Replies: 3
Views: 12430

... I keep believing that: 1. Long term domestic and international equity returns are comparable 2. International lagged US for over a decade, 1990's + 3. The next decade will show both domestic and international return lines converging (US lagging, international doing better). 4. Having 40% of you...
by JWR1945
Sun Mar 13, 2005 9:32 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Do you believe this international SWR data ?
Replies: 3
Views: 12430

Found an interesting table and article. This table estimates performance of various mix of domestic / international stocks: ... Note that the information is dated - late 90's (a lot has happened since then...). And the withdrawals start only at one point. And I'm not sure of the source / veracity o...
by JWR1945
Sun Mar 13, 2005 9:07 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation based SWR Question
Replies: 16
Views: 27077

We can draw out 2.5% for 40 years. About the same as for portfolios that include 50% S&P. We can draw out 2.0% for 50 years. All bonds don't seem to work too well for youngsters. Those numbers are with a zero percent interest rate. If you can depend on getting a 2% interest rate, the numbers ar...
by JWR1945
Sat Mar 12, 2005 4:49 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation based SWR Question
Replies: 16
Views: 27077

This question uses the assumption that you are mistaken about this being a period of high valuations and should therefore avoid or reduce exposure to the equity markets. (I could just as easily reverse the scenario if you believed that we are in a period of low valuations). Beachbumz Another thing ...
by JWR1945
Sat Mar 12, 2005 4:36 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation based SWR Question
Replies: 16
Views: 27077

For beachbumz: In terms of your original line of thinking, I believe that our use of (inflation-adjusted) real returns instead of nominal returns is sufficient to get us very close to the right numbers. In addition, remember that price-to-earnings ratios automatically cancel most of the effects of i...
by JWR1945
Sat Mar 12, 2005 4:34 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation based SWR Question
Replies: 16
Views: 27077

Thanks for the replies, but I'm not sure I got the answer to my question (I'm not even sure there is one). Let me put it another way: My understanding is that you (Hocus) believe that we are in a period of high valuations. It's not my intention to argue that point, but let's just suppose that, in 3...
by JWR1945
Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:14 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43690

TIPS at 2% Interest Conditions 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 1.0 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17 Stocks = 50% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50% With Rebalancing Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 is...
by JWR1945
Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:07 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43690

TIPS at 2% Interest Conditions 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 1.0 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17 Stocks = 50% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50% With Rebalancing Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 is...
by JWR1945
Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:02 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43690

2% TIPS 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 1.0 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17 Stocks = 50% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50% With Rebalancing Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates are determined...