Search found 278 matches

by Mike
Tue Nov 16, 2004 10:13 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: High Dividend Strategies
Replies: 70
Views: 87014

Deregulation of the utility industry may alter their performance.
by Mike
Mon Nov 15, 2004 6:37 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Truth about High Dividends
Replies: 24
Views: 22237

They look pretty good.
by Mike
Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:30 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Recency,the nephew, the brother in law, skinning the cat.
Replies: 13
Views: 12194

...what does the research here tell us to date...
That it is a potentially dangerous time to invest in traditional asset classes. Be really careful.
by Mike
Sat Oct 23, 2004 6:57 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: "Money" Breaks Ranks
Replies: 42
Views: 32409

The strategy is open to anyone aspiring to early retirement and seeking a data-supported short-cut to getting there.
Yes, I agree. Early retirees are a small minority. They will not exert significant influence on the market.
by Mike
Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:02 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Accumulation is Different
Replies: 21
Views: 20311

Stock are a wonderful asset class. US stocks were a wonderful asset class during the 19th and 20th centuries, a time of rapid population growth. There is no historical proof that stocks will be just as wonderful during the 21st century, when demographic trends suggest that population growth will st...
by Mike
Wed Oct 20, 2004 3:58 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: "Money" Breaks Ranks
Replies: 42
Views: 32409

A small minority can beat the majority by seeking pockets of inefficiency.
by Mike
Wed Oct 20, 2004 6:41 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: "Money" Breaks Ranks
Replies: 42
Views: 32409

The move among academics seems to be from completely efficient to mostly efficient. Even the non efficient guy uses index funds.
by Mike
Wed Oct 20, 2004 6:28 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Accumulation is Different
Replies: 21
Views: 20311

The time to preserve capital via switching is when you have capital to preserve.
This makes sense. The S&P is dangerous to capital right now.
by Mike
Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:33 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Accumulation is Different
Replies: 21
Views: 20311

Switching improved the worst case results only a small amount while taking away the upside. That's interesting. Since most studies key on accumulation and dollar cost averaging over long periods of time, they appear to be giving the young the correct advice. It is retirees who need to avoid the big...
by Mike
Mon Oct 18, 2004 9:38 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: 30-Year Stock Returns Starting at Recent Valuations
Replies: 20
Views: 19661

15-Year Stock Returns The bottom end projected 15 year returns are rather abysmal. Most planners seem to look at the 30 year numbers when making recommendations. Those facing a 15 year retirement would gain little from equities compared to the risk. It takes unusual circumstances for stocks to be a...
by Mike
Mon Oct 18, 2004 5:23 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Recency,Dividends,Individual Stocks
Replies: 2
Views: 5225

What could it tell me?
Comparing your portfolio's performance to bench marks can tell you if you should continue as is, or abandon your strategy and just buy a low cost mutual fund. Some people can do a good job buying individual stocks, and some can't.
by Mike
Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:32 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: 30-Year Stock Returns Starting at Recent Valuations
Replies: 20
Views: 19661

The difficulty is that switching would probably have us entirely out of stocks right now. Probably out of the S&P for most of the last decade, which would have been unproductive due to historically ununsual circumstances. My interpretation of the above data is that the 30 year fixed allocation ...
by Mike
Sun Oct 17, 2004 3:56 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: 15-Year Stock Returns Starting at Recent Valuations
Replies: 5
Views: 6863

The S&P doesn't look like a very good deal at P/E 27.
by Mike
Fri Oct 15, 2004 1:47 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: 30-Year Stock Returns Starting at Recent Valuations
Replies: 20
Views: 19661

If I understand this correctly, high stock portfolios will outperform low stock portfolios, which is consistent with other research I have seen. Of course, this does not seem to address switching portfolio performance.
by Mike
Tue Oct 05, 2004 10:16 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Is the Raddr Methodology Analytically Valid?
Replies: 69
Views: 47177

Five hundred years from now... Equity returns for the 19th and 20th centuries had the tail wind of a rapidly rising population. It is not physically possible for that rate of population increase to continue for 500 more years. Population growth plus productivity growth is what translates into econo...
by Mike
Wed Sep 29, 2004 7:35 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: High Dividend Strategies
Replies: 70
Views: 87014

James Dlugosch sounds a cautionary note on high dividend stocks. He suggests that they are currently over valued, which would make potential capital losses more than offset their dividend yield. The dividend yield itself is not very generous by historical norms. I wonder if this situation is similar...
by Mike
Wed Sep 29, 2004 6:53 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: High Dividend Strategies
Replies: 70
Views: 87014

Geraldine Weiss I remembered reading favorable reviews about her in a book by Mark Hulbert, so I Googled her name and found an interview in Forbes where she talks about dividend on the Dow. She first though the market would collapse when Dow dividend fell below 3%, then changed her mind and now thi...
by Mike
Tue Sep 28, 2004 4:19 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: High Dividend Strategies
Replies: 70
Views: 87014

...the high dividend payers may not be able to grow the dividends with inflation...
It rather makes sense that if TSM is likely to produce less total return going forward, high dividend yielding stocks are likely to produce less total return than they did in the past as well.
by Mike
Sun Sep 26, 2004 5:05 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Deluxe Calculator V1.1A04
Replies: 5
Views: 6696

Thanks John.
by Mike
Sun Sep 26, 2004 4:40 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: High Dividend Strategies
Replies: 70
Views: 87014

Thanks John. Carefully chosen high dividend value stocks have a good record, so upside potential is not lost by following this approach. I like the idea of living on the dividend, and leaving the principal intact. I have added the 2 books to my future reading wish list. The congress usually insists ...