Search found 278 matches

by Mike
Thu Oct 16, 2003 1:56 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: 3% SWR for 56 Years
Replies: 9
Views: 11918

Money market funds don't work nearly as well as TIPS do when employing a P/E switching strategy. If you have Excel, you can download a money market/S&P switching calculator at: http://rehphome.tripod.com/re60.html Even if you don't have Excel, the article shows that there is little advantage to ...
by Mike
Tue Oct 14, 2003 2:21 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Millionaire "Code"
Replies: 14
Views: 13511

ISTJ

I am not quite sure what practical value these test have. They may allow a degree of insight into the strengths and weaknesses of our normal thought patterns so that we can make more rational decisions. I shall ponder this.
by Mike
Sat Oct 04, 2003 8:42 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: REIT personal finance USA article
Replies: 3
Views: 4127

The ETF index funds generally have provisions that keep them trading pretty close to the net asset value of the underlying stocks. I don't follow closed end funds very often, but when they get above NAV, this tends to indicate that their underlying stock sectors are currently popular. When the indiv...
by Mike
Fri Oct 03, 2003 9:17 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: REIT personal finance USA article
Replies: 3
Views: 4127

My impression is that you could buy them now if you wanted to take advantage of their short term momentum, but for long term holdings you might get a slightly better price if you waited until they go cyclically out of favor again. Of course, the market doesn't always cooperate with my guess work. :)
by Mike
Fri Oct 03, 2003 9:10 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: UK Gov offer: Work till 70, get $45k lump sum
Replies: 4
Views: 4787

Here in the United States we can defer Social Security until age 70, and get a larger inflation adjusted monthly check in return. If the laws are still the same in 24 years when I reach 70, I may opt for this myself. I wish to bet on a long life expectency. That way SS will act as a back up plan in ...
by Mike
Tue Sep 30, 2003 5:55 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Is SWR a can of worms?
Replies: 29
Views: 19679

Petey wrote: I plan to do the last five years when I've selected a testbed bunch of funds to match my planned asset allocation and have all the data. Mike replies: The mix of funds that performed the best in the last 5 years are not necessarily the funds that will perform the best in the next 5 year...
by Mike
Fri Sep 26, 2003 1:13 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Kenneth fisher thinks the future looks fine
Replies: 11
Views: 9533

Current valuations will almost certainly drag down long term returns from here. However, with earnings recovering, and the forces keeping valuations high showing no sign of fading, I would guess that the next favorable season for stocks (Nov-May) will likely lead to equity gains. Of course, the dang...
by Mike
Tue Sep 23, 2003 10:02 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Baby step towards FIRE
Replies: 7
Views: 6945

Indeed. After watching so many people I know die at a relatively young age, or develop health problems that seriously affected their ability to enjoy life, I am not at all sure that I made the right choice. No mortal knows how many days he has on this earth, or how long his health will hold out. I w...
by Mike
Tue Sep 23, 2003 8:57 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Baby step towards FIRE
Replies: 7
Views: 6945

When I was 19, I thought to myself that it would probably be easier to earn money while I was young than when I was older. I found the lowest pressure job that I could, and puttered around 40 hours per week at it. I maxed out my IRA and 401k, then saved about half of my take home pay on top of it. A...
by Mike
Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:44 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Gold, precious metals, Oil & Gas, Timber as asset classe
Replies: 6
Views: 6026

I am thinking that many commodities are rising in response to the fed's determined effort to create inflation. The exact response of each individual commodity will depend upon supply/demand factors in its respective niche.
by Mike
Mon Sep 08, 2003 12:32 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Modified RE Switching Calculator
Replies: 2
Views: 4901

If I understand what you are saying, 80% stocks improves long term portfolio survival as long as P/E 10 is below 20. Above 20, 80% stocks seems to reduce survival rates, at least at a 4.19% withdrawal rate (based on running my copy of the REHP calculator for a constant 80% stock/20% TIPS regardless ...
by Mike
Fri Sep 05, 2003 12:15 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

Petey wrote:
Mid cap, Small Cap and Micro Cap are fall into this category.
Mike replies:

I have been buying smaller caps since last fall to take advantage of the nascent economic recovery. I also like to overweight areas that I think are relatively undervalued.
by Mike
Fri Sep 05, 2003 12:07 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

John R. wrote: I will now draw attention to the reduction in stock payout ratios. Mike replies: The data does support lower payout ratios as a partial cause of today's lower dividend yields. Although I think that the current P/E 10 may be artificially high due to a singular event. Corporate CEOs wer...
by Mike
Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:56 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Personal inflation vs. reported inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 7786

Personal Inflation Rate

It seems to me that to calculate your personal inflation rate all you have to do is write down what you spend in a year, then compare it with what you spent in past years. You can break it down by categories to see if your housing, food, or such is going up much faster than the other categories. You...
by Mike
Wed Sep 03, 2003 4:10 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

Hocus wrote:Thanks for joining us, Mike.
Mike replies:

Thank you for the welcome. I will ponder the links you cited.
by Mike
Sun Aug 31, 2003 11:27 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

Prior to defined contribution plans and their 401k's, retirement plans were managed institutions. Historically, those institutions favored stocks more than individuals. That would produce an effect opposite of what Mike has suggested. Mike replies: That would be true if all (or the vast majority) o...
by Mike
Sat Aug 30, 2003 3:56 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

Boomers and Dividends

The immediate effect of tax sheltered accounts (401k's and IRA's) is to favor dividends. Mike replies: Exactly so. By encouraging boomers to buy dividend paying stocks, the 401k/IRA has raised the price of the stocks, thus lowering yields. Similar to how the tax favored status of municipal bonds lo...
by Mike
Sat Aug 30, 2003 2:37 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

If I understood the article: 1) Dividends were the lion's share of past equity total returns. 2) Dividends are at historically unprecedented lows. 3) Therefore, future equity returns from here are likely to be below historic averages. To me, it seems that the boomers may be causing this lower divide...