Search found 1697 matches

by JWR1945
Sat Mar 12, 2005 2:52 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

Using both Initial and Current Valuationsâ€â€￾High Variability--50%

This continues my investigation of a new variable withdrawal algorithm. It combines conventional withdrawals, which are based only on a portfolio's initial balance, and variable withdrawals that are based on a portfolio's current balance. I used the market's earnings yield at the beginning of retire...
by JWR1945
Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:46 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

TIPS at 2% Interest Conditions 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17 Stocks = 50% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50% With Rebalancing Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 i...
by JWR1945
Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:24 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

TIPS at 2% Interest Conditions 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17 Stocks = 50% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50% With Rebalancing Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 i...
by JWR1945
Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:07 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

Using both Initial and Current Valuations--Revised - 50% Stocks I have been looking at a new variable withdrawal algorithm. It combines conventional withdrawals, which are based only on a portfolio's initial balance, and variable withdrawals that are based on a portfolio's current balance. I used t...
by JWR1945
Fri Mar 11, 2005 8:11 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

TIPS at 2% Interest: Baseline HDBR50T2 consists of 50% stocks and 50% TIPS at a 2% interest rate. HDBR80T2 consists of 80% stocks and 20% TIPS at a 2% interest rate. These portfolios are similar to HDBR50 and HDBR80 except that they use TIPS instead of commercial paper. These are 30-year Historical ...
by JWR1945
Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:12 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation based SWR Question
Replies: 16
Views: 26949

Beachbumz, look at the posts related to A New Tool. That methodology strips off the starting price. The New Tool requires that you estimate future stock market returns. People usually apply some form of the Gordon equation for such a purpose. John Bogle of Vanguard uses the following (except that he...
by JWR1945
Thu Mar 10, 2005 8:04 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Something to look forward to.
Replies: 25
Views: 39269

Yep JWR's - --'Initial and Current Valuations' thread seems to be on to something. Look forward to your general conclusions/feelings as to offense/defense for someone taking the ER leap in the current environment. Hmmm - at a stretch - perhaps some thoughts/considerations for someone ten years or l...
by JWR1945
Thu Mar 10, 2005 7:58 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Something to look forward to.
Replies: 25
Views: 39269

Emotional aspects - we don't need no stinking emotional aspects. It would help in many cases. People start retirement for a variety of reasons. Many find retirement thrust upon them. In my case, I did not want to continue working for another full decade. But it would have been necessary for me to r...
by JWR1945
Thu Mar 10, 2005 7:48 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

Some of those SWR numbers dip pretty low. Yes. This is a consistent theme of variable withdrawal strategies. So far, our results have favored limiting the amount of year-to-year variation. [This includes some data that I have not yet presented.] They have also favored higher stock allocations. Thes...
by JWR1945
Wed Mar 09, 2005 7:08 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Something to look forward to.
Replies: 25
Views: 39269

Don't forget to post some numbers once in a while - boring as they may be. I have been posting numbers all along. I posted some more last night. What I have started to do is to build upon a theme in a single thread. If you don't check out the latest on the thread, you are missing something. I could...
by JWR1945
Tue Mar 08, 2005 8:13 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

TIPS at 2% Interest Conditions 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 1.0 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17 Stocks = 80% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 20% With Rebalancing Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 is...
by JWR1945
Tue Mar 08, 2005 8:01 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

TIPS at 2% Interest Conditions 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 1.0 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17 Stocks = 80% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 20% With Rebalancing Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 is...
by JWR1945
Tue Mar 08, 2005 7:57 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

2% TIPS 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 1.0 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17 Stocks = 80% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 20% With Rebalancing Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates are determined...
by JWR1945
Tue Mar 08, 2005 7:50 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

Using both Initial and Current Valuations - High Variability I have been looking at a new variable withdrawal algorithm. It combines conventional withdrawals, which are based only on a portfolio's initial balance, and variable withdrawals that are based on a portfolio's current balance. I used the ...
by JWR1945
Tue Mar 08, 2005 2:22 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Is Hocus FIREd?
Replies: 79
Views: 138403

ben People are not scared of me Well recent posts at fool.com seems to indicate that people fear that you might snap and become violent! I do not think anybody fear that from Intercst :lol:? The opposite is true. They know that intercst will go into an attack mode instantaneously. Whatever you may ...
by JWR1945
Tue Mar 08, 2005 2:16 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Is Hocus FIREd?
Replies: 79
Views: 138403

beachbumz Intercst believes your plan is 'half-assed' , he has a right to his opinion. My motivation was to show that your plan was not as 'half-assed' as maybe he thinks. This is my opinion, I have a right to it. IMHO, intercst does not believe what he says. He has been careful not to search for t...
by JWR1945
Tue Mar 08, 2005 2:07 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Is Hocus FIREd?
Replies: 79
Views: 138403

Beachbumz began his thread starter with these words: I posted this over at Intercst's board in response to a post Intercst put up about Hocus' retirement in the section titled "Land of the Busted Retirements". I'm sure I will catch some grief over it over there (maybe here to ), but after...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 07, 2005 1:29 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

With 2% TIPS Balances Reference with 80% stocks 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17 Stocks = 80% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 20% With Rebalancing I used the ...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 07, 2005 1:19 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

With 2% TIPS Withdrawal Amounts Reference with 80% stocks 1921-1980 $100000 initial balance Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1) Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25 Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17 Stocks = 80% TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 20% With Rebalancing I...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 07, 2005 1:15 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 43554

Using both Initial and Current Valuations - Corrected I have been looking at a new variable withdrawal algorithm. It combines conventional withdrawals, which are based only on a portfolio's initial balance, and variable withdrawals that are based on a portfolio's current balance. I used the market'...