Search found 242 matches
- Wed May 12, 2004 8:27 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: From Chapter 1
- Replies: 10
- Views: 12720
In terms of the Gordon equation and its adjustments, what I have seen is generally related to the middle term, in the neighborhood of ten years. I would be very concerned about its accuracy over longer time periods because dividend payout ratios vary with time and because the dividend yield is depe...
- Wed May 12, 2004 5:48 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: From Chapter 1
- Replies: 10
- Views: 12720
Say that five years from now, the consensus is that Modern Portfolio Theory is not dead, but has evolved into something very different from what most people understand it to be today. Shouldn't we be grateful to mannfm11 for having brought us that insight before it was being published in the newspa...
- Wed May 12, 2004 5:32 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: From Chapter 1
- Replies: 10
- Views: 12720
The 4.89% number applies only when you look at 2033 (specifically at 1998 and 2033). And that is just because you chose 1982 as the start date for your thought experiment: from 1982 you asserted that 7% real returns were expected for the long term, and as an example of that long term you chose 50 y...
- Tue May 11, 2004 12:47 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: From Chapter 1
- Replies: 10
- Views: 12720
Remember that John Bogle's observation was for the really long-term. As are predictions from the Gordon Equation. How about this scenario? Stocks face one really bad decade that brings P/E10 below its typical level, possibly to 12 or lower. Follow that by another bad decade, but not quite as bad. F...
- Tue May 11, 2004 11:11 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: From Chapter 1
- Replies: 10
- Views: 12720
Assuming that John Bogle's observation that the stock market's real total return is predictable over the very long-term (i.e., 50 years or more) still holds, one should plan on using 4.89% when making projections for 1998-2033. One should not plan on using anything close to 7.2%. The 4.89% you deri...
- Tue May 11, 2004 4:29 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Stock Price Behavior Conundrum
- Replies: 13
- Views: 21851
I still believe the demand for dependable income-paying assets, like real estate and REITs, will increase as the boomers flee the regular salaries of the workplace and as their US-based employers desert them. I agree. I think the recent peak in valuations won't be the highest one for this asset cla...
- Mon May 10, 2004 4:28 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Stock Price Behavior Conundrum
- Replies: 13
- Views: 21851
Good news is bad news, bad news is good news. Part of what is going on is that news announcers rarely know all of the factors that make the market move up or down on any given day. They are just guessing as to which factors are important. Another influence is that many traders tend to make bets on ...
- Mon May 10, 2004 12:41 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Financial Statistics
- Replies: 11
- Views: 12768
I believe that you are engaging in a logical inconsistency common among those who slice and dice their allocations. You are comparing predictions from before the fact with market behavior that occurred after the fact. Slice and dice comparisons are quite useful in terms of explaining what has happe...
- Mon May 10, 2004 5:38 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Stock Price Behavior Conundrum
- Replies: 13
- Views: 21851
I like John Mauldin's quote that the benchmark in this environment is is a mmkt fund. My colleagues, barely chastened victims of the late 90s gogo nonsense think I'm nuts for saying that. They rode the NT express from $1 a share (if you believe all their purchase point claims - I don't) to $8.60. I...
- Mon May 10, 2004 5:17 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Financial Statistics
- Replies: 11
- Views: 12768
- Sun May 09, 2004 4:53 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Financial Statistics
- Replies: 11
- Views: 12768
Yet, I continue to read assertions that skill does not exist because some insensitive statistical test fails to show significance. I've rarely or never seen someone say that they thought Buffett's performance was due to luck. The common argument is that picking the next Buffett is very difficult to...
- Sun May 09, 2004 4:32 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Stock Price Behavior Conundrum
- Replies: 13
- Views: 21851
I admit to being somewhat puzzled by REIT returns. In light of their 'clear' (90%+ agreed they were) overvaluation (say 20%) relative to NAV, their bond like rents (they move upward but slowly), the recent sell-off makes some sense. And some market irrationality coming to its senses. They sure did ...
- Sat May 08, 2004 2:56 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Stock Price Behavior Conundrum
- Replies: 13
- Views: 21851
only explanation I have is that high dividend payers like reits and bonds have to be adjusted down to make up for the rising interest rates. So if, say, to attract reit investors, reits have to offer 4% real, and inflation looks like it will run 6%, then prices have to go down so that noiminal will...
- Fri May 07, 2004 7:55 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Stock Price Behavior Conundrum
- Replies: 13
- Views: 21851
1) I have an asset allocation that I am comfortable with and makes sense to me 2) I am in the accumulation phase, saving a substantial percentage of my (meager) income 3) I believe in periodic reballancing, and can take advantage of this due to nearly all my investments being in tax-advantaged acco...
- Fri May 07, 2004 6:23 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Stock Price Behavior Conundrum
- Replies: 13
- Views: 21851
Stock Price Behavior Conundrum
Since I've been a relatively close observer of the stock market one thing has vexed me. Reports like this one : U.S. stocks open down after strikingly strong jobs report NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks opened sharply lower on Friday, after a report showing strikingly strong jobs growth in Ap...
- Fri Apr 30, 2004 9:52 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Inflation vs. Deflation debate
- Replies: 9
- Views: 11560
[I've long considered this as somewhat counter-intuitive, since we basically have the fed promising to drop money from helicopters if needed. Greetings, Oso Travieso :) Welcome to the board(s) I agree with you that it seems the Fed can likely find a means to prevent deflation since they can print a...
- Thu Apr 29, 2004 12:38 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: The Death of Portfolio Theory
- Replies: 7
- Views: 10665
- Thu Apr 29, 2004 5:27 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: The Death of Portfolio Theory
- Replies: 7
- Views: 10665
- Thu Apr 29, 2004 4:56 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: I just wrote a post and I don't see it.
- Replies: 2
- Views: 6322
I recommend that you compose just about everything on Microsoft Word, WordPad or equivalent. Copy and paste it when you post. If you are composing a post directly and something bad happens, sometimes you can use your back arrow to come back to the Post a reply area. Then you can select all and copy...
- Sat Apr 24, 2004 5:03 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds
- Replies: 13
- Views: 22406
Re: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds
[Right, the implication in the threads I looked at was that the switching strategies were viable for future use which I think is dangerous. If there was a recommendation not to follow them then it was pretty well hidden and I missed it. I will note that it seemed to me that pretty much any time Joh...