Search found 435 matches

by hocus
Fri Sep 19, 2003 6:39 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: What about FIRE websites and books?
Replies: 32
Views: 25218

Access is a problem, but people can always get a free trial membership to read links if we provided them. No one in this community should ever feel that he or she cannot read a Motley Fool REHP board post because of the $30 fee charged for admission to those boards. I have a long-term goal of re-bu...
by hocus
Tue Sep 16, 2003 4:37 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: What about FIRE websites and books?
Replies: 32
Views: 25218

should rehp be included? At my web site, I will be including a link to the REHP site but also including a warning to aspiring early retirees that the methodology used in the site's SWR study is invalid. I understand that a good number here have a hang-up over the word "invalid."But Karma ...
by hocus
Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:31 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching Works
Replies: 6
Views: 7522

Stocks are needed to extend the portfolio life span. They provide long-term growth. This comment brought to mind a thread that I started at the Motley Fool board back in May 2002, "Insights Salvaged from a Doomed Thread." http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=17226212&sort=whole It h...
by hocus
Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:43 pm
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Hocus on wanderer's post on the "research" board
Replies: 20
Views: 27924

as I understand it, your argument runs like this....

Chips:

The questions you raise in this post are better suited for discussion at the SWR board.
by hocus
Thu Sep 04, 2003 5:27 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Hocus on wanderer's post on the "research" board
Replies: 20
Views: 27924

If people accept comparisons of hocus to Paul McCartney and Bogle... I don't think these comparisons are so shocking. I sing like Bogle and I work numbers like McCartney. Why don't we do it in an index fund? Why don't we do it in an index fund? No one will be watching us. Why don't we do it in an i...
by hocus
Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:27 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Hocus on wanderer's post on the "research" board
Replies: 20
Views: 27924

Great pics, LOL! I agree about the graphics. When I set up my web site (my target date is May 13, 2004), I am going to have to ask Ataloss for a copy of that "Invalid!" stamp he used over on the Gummy Stuff board. I might be able to work the police car in somewhere too. I never appreciate...
by hocus
Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:40 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

Peter Bernstein : Although these comparisons are interesting, the objective of portfolio management is to fund liabilities, either current or future, either known with precision or estimated, either actual or expected. The true benchmark, then, is the return required by the structure and timing of ...
by hocus
Wed Sep 03, 2003 4:41 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

as has been pointed out to hocus repeatedly, we are unsure of the future You have fallen victim to one of the tricks of the Disruptors, Wanderer. Dating back to the May 13, 2002, post, my position has been that aspiring early retirees need to know the true SWR, the one revealed by looking at the hi...
by hocus
Wed Sep 03, 2003 1:37 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

Bernstein Interviewer [from the link to the Bernstein interview above]: You created quite a buzz among foundation and endowment types with that speech you delivered to a gathering in Phoenix at the end of January. The PDF link set forth at the link below is described as "a slightly revised ver...
by hocus
Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:56 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

JWR1945 [from the FIRE board thread cited above]: The main observation for our purposes is that the earnings and dividends were lumped together. A correlation was noted and a speculative guess as to its cause was suggested but not proved. When we see real E10 jump during the 1990s (as shown in the ...
by hocus
Mon Sep 01, 2003 9:45 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

Mike : As of the second quarter of 2000, there was 2.2 trillion in defined benefit plans, as compared to only 800 billion in 1985. 2.5 trillion is in 401k plans. I have a fondness for contrarian claims supported by citations to data. Thanks for joining us, Mike . Peter Bernstein: Why has market tim...
by hocus
Thu Aug 28, 2003 9:52 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: My Days at Pizza Hut University
Replies: 35
Views: 33493

My Days at Pizza Hut University

The August 27 issue of the Wall Street Journal has an article about reaction to the Peter Bernstein speech from early this year in which he voiced support for the much-criticized strategy of "market timing." Here's a link to the article. You need to subscribe to view the link. http://onlin...
by hocus
Thu Aug 28, 2003 7:27 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Wharton: How Much Money Will You Need for Retirement?
Replies: 47
Views: 34223

that was pre frying pan ("PFP"). (i'm kidding, sorta, hocus - i still love ya even though at least 10 people here are ready to lynch ya ).

OK.

Just remember--they booed Bob Dylan when he picked up an electric guitar.

Change is hard.
by hocus
Thu Aug 28, 2003 12:51 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: NYT on SWR
Replies: 3
Views: 5642

NYT on SWR

Excerpt:

My peace of mind comes from having income-producing stocks and bonds and withdrawing less than what they're producing," Mr. Anuje said. "I'm eating the fruit off the tree, not the seeds."

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/17/busin ... I.html?th=&
by hocus
Mon Aug 25, 2003 3:46 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: post 10,000
Replies: 38
Views: 42997

your use of the term invalid requires explanation since it does not correspone to the usual use of the word It would help if someone had access to a textbook on how to perform statistical research. I would imagine that such a textbook would state requirements that must be followed by researchers se...
by hocus
Sun Aug 24, 2003 5:48 pm
Forum: Town Center
Topic: post 10,000
Replies: 38
Views: 42997

It appears to some of us that hdbr is the same as hswr The intercst study did not purport to determine either an hdbr or an hswr. It purported to determine the SWR. We now have had reported to us three independent analyses of the data relating to the determination of the SWR for a high stock alloca...
by hocus
Sun Aug 24, 2003 10:45 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: post 10,000
Replies: 38
Views: 42997

That "fact" is something that causes me to chuckle when hocus says how much time has been wasted - because I can't think of a bigger time waster here than the SWR cluster ckuf.) This is all so crazy. The reason why I long identified you as my favorite FIRE poster is the emphasis you put o...
by hocus
Sat Aug 23, 2003 10:46 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Ordered Tables (PE10, q, HDBR)
Replies: 14
Views: 16365

I am posting these tables as a convenient reference.

JWR1945:

You are quickly becoming one of my favorite posters on this board.

(that's a joke.)
by hocus
Fri Aug 22, 2003 11:00 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: post 10,000
Replies: 38
Views: 42997

You should take a look at his older stuff I'm Paul McCartney and I just wrote a great song called "Hey Jude" and can't wait to share it with people. But there's this guy in the back of the room who keeps calling out for me to play "Can't Buy Me Love." What a drag. I love the sof...
by hocus
Fri Aug 22, 2003 7:53 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: post 10,000
Replies: 38
Views: 42997

If you could find a way to somehow forget about Intercst and just be hocus, I believe you would be one of the finest posters I've ever read.

Thanks, ES.