Search found 435 matches

by hocus
Mon Dec 09, 2002 2:53 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Datamining in Intercst SWR Study
Replies: 20
Views: 18021

As little respect as I have for the guy and as sure as I am that he does deliberately deceive at times he has a Clintonesque ability to get away with it more or less on technicalities. I understand. I stopped following the Clinton matter too closely after awhile, but my recollection is that his abi...
by hocus
Mon Dec 09, 2002 1:57 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Datamining in Intercst SWR Study
Replies: 20
Views: 18021

In isolation his comments can be attributed to poor semantics. They do not necessarily indicate a deliberate deception. JWR1945 : As you know, I greatly respect your viewpoint and you clearly have a far firmer grasp of the statistical concepts at issue here than I do. The reason that I am asking th...
by hocus
Sun Dec 08, 2002 2:40 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Datamining in Intercst SWR Study
Replies: 20
Views: 18021

His findings are not only wrong but carry no statistical significance. I understand, raddr. But I really need an answer to a somewhat different question here, if I can press your patience just a tad farther. Let's forget for a moment whether what intercst says is statistically valid or not. Just le...
by hocus
Sun Dec 08, 2002 1:39 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Datamining in Intercst SWR Study
Replies: 20
Views: 18021

Thanks, raddr. My common sense and understanding of the SWR concept have told me for a long time that the fundamental problem with the intercst study is that it is a case of datamining gone awry. But I do not have the skill with numbers that you possess, and the stuff you have put forward here has b...
by hocus
Sun Dec 08, 2002 3:02 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Datamining in Intercst SWR Study
Replies: 20
Views: 18021

Datamining in Intercst SWR Study

I tried putting this post up as a response in the Raddr thread re sequencing of returns. It turned out sort of messed up, and I would like to get some responses to the question posed at the end of the post, so I thought I should try it as a separate thread. If you want to know the background discuss...
by hocus
Sun Dec 08, 2002 2:55 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Importance of the sequence of returns for calculating SWR
Replies: 34
Views: 28726

If anyone knows how to fix the columns that I somehow messed up with my last post, I'd appreciate it. I'd like to get some responses on the question I posed here, and I am concerned that the columns are now such a mess that no one is going to be able to read my long post. Also, my post went up twice...
by hocus
Sun Dec 08, 2002 2:49 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Importance of the sequence of returns for calculating SWR
Replies: 34
Views: 28726

At the T .Rowe Price site, the result is 2.64% for a 99% survival rate for 40 years ( http://www3.troweprice.com/ric/RIC/ ). This would be the absolute worst case based on historical data. One of the criticisms that has been raised re the intercst SWR study (but not by me) is that it is produced th...
by hocus
Sun Dec 08, 2002 2:47 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Importance of the sequence of returns for calculating SWR
Replies: 34
Views: 28726

At the T .Rowe Price site, the result is 2.64% for a 99% survival rate for 40 years ( http://www3.troweprice.com/ric/RIC/ ). This would be the absolute worst case based on historical data. One of the criticisms that has been raised re the intercst SWR study (but not by me) is that it is produced th...
by hocus
Sat Dec 07, 2002 7:46 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Importance of the sequence of returns for calculating SWR
Replies: 34
Views: 28726

I pretty much agree with you on most of this. Let's just say if we get into a gray area on board rules or ethics I'll do what I've always done.... I don't mean for anyone to get the idea that I was concerned about ElSupremo's board policies in any way. I wasn't trying to say that. My concern was ov...
by hocus
Sat Dec 07, 2002 2:42 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Importance of the sequence of returns for calculating SWR
Replies: 34
Views: 28726

Rest assured any misstep where NFB rules are involved will not be tolerated. Up to and including disruption of any on topic discussion. ElSupremo: Depending on how exactly you mean this, I either strongly agree with you or strongly disagree with you. If what you mean here is that no one on this boa...
by hocus
Mon Dec 02, 2002 10:28 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Update on TMF Retire Early Board Saga
Replies: 14
Views: 11933

hocus, pleez remember, "There's no success like failure, and failure is no success at all." --Love Minus Zero/No Limit Isn't that quote too perfect for this situation? I have had that quote on my TMF profile for three years now. It's like God had me choose it just so that I could get a la...
by hocus
Mon Dec 02, 2002 10:09 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Update on TMF Retire Early Board Saga
Replies: 14
Views: 11933

I'd add jwr, but i think you may have been aware of his fine work. I do not want anyone to think that I was slighting JWR's work in any way. The difference is that I had seen the work he has posted here before it was posted here. So it wasn't this place that made me aware of it. The raddr stuff I s...
by hocus
Mon Dec 02, 2002 8:20 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Update on TMF Retire Early Board Saga
Replies: 14
Views: 11933

Thanks, ES
by hocus
Mon Dec 02, 2002 8:11 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Update on TMF Retire Early Board Saga
Replies: 14
Views: 11933

ES: I much appreciate what people have done to set this place up. The tone and subject matter is so much better than at the TMF Retire Early board as things stand today that it is silly to make a comparison. But I have deep roots in that community, and I suspect that they will have to put up a sign ...
by hocus
Mon Dec 02, 2002 7:21 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Update on TMF Retire Early Board Saga
Replies: 14
Views: 11933

Update on TMF Retire Early Board Saga

I promised this group that I would provide updates of significant developments in the saga of the TMF Retire Early board. Here's a link to my latest (and last for awhile) post on the matter. http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=18233436 I appreciate the enhancement to my knowledge of the safe with...