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Bookm wrote: Would I be correct to believe that these two factors (withdrawal rate and allocation) are equally important? Absolutely! And I would add valuations to make it a triumverate. Valuations affect asset allocation which affects withdrawal rate which affects . . . That's why rules of thumb l...

wanderer wrote: your continued referral to that board is unhelpful. imo. the fact that you used a "poll" to gather "data" there is a delicious irony. Actually, I must disagree with my good friend wanderer in this case. Much of the (unwanted in my case) discussion about that boar...

I wrote: Is the assumption of a mean 9% return too high for today's valuations? What would happen if the mean were dropped to the 6 or 7% we've been hearing about lately? I downloaded gummy's spreadsheets and played with them. I used 7% mean returns and 15% SD with a 4% withdrawal rate and 2% infla...

Bensolar wrote: It worked when I previewed this post ... Beauty :D Clicking on your link took me directly to the post in question. You should post instructions on how to do this as a sticky at the NFB board. :idea:

Gummy wrote: I'm not sure I understand the question. The chart says that, at year 20 (for example), those investors that survived that far had an average current withdrawal rate of (about) 4.5%. I'm sorry. I understand that graph (with 4 columns representing each decade). The graph I don't understa...

gummy: Here's the distribution of final 40-year portolios (for our 10,000 investors): I'm not sure how to read the graph. Is it saying that at 6% of the original portfolios failed, that 3% of them had $10 million and that 1% of them had $20 million? Sorry for my ignorance. Is the assumption of a me...

I think it's a fantastic idea!

I agree. And I bet it will allow us to beat our previous record for most users logged on at one time.

hocus: Thank you for your long and passionate post. What you are asking is "Is hocus accusing WiseNLucky pf playing games?" Actually, I was asking JWR if he included me in that categorization. I thought he was the one making that comment. I knew I was not playing games and hoped that he d...

I believe that one of the purposes that JWR1945 might have had in mind in starting this thread was to get people to agree to the definition of an SWR And we're doing so well at it. :wink: Wait until we get to discussions of asset allocation. :shock: Am I a semantic trapper? I find myself understand...

Even with a MC result accounting for known factors and successful in 95% of runs, we will have basically no idea if it will be safe in the future. This makes it essentially a well refined rule of thumb. I agree with this statement. The assertion that we can reduce SWR to a mathematical equation app...

hocus, OK, Ben. I'm leaning toward the separate board idea. It might be called something like "Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group." Actually, I think safe withdrawal rate information belongs on the FIRE board. I would prefer to see it stay there. Just to clarify, I hope that there will n...

Many of today's three-car garages occupy 900 square feet, just about the average size of an entire home in the 1950s. Both of my grandparents' houses were in this neighborhood. I hadn't really thought about it but that is where my parents were raised in the 40s and 50s. I loved visiting them and ne...

I also had a hard time saving in my first "good" earning years... So did I. And, unfortunately, I do not have anything to really show for the money spent. Not even memories. I stick with my belief that spending less and saving more then would have significantly increased my options now. I...

Those should keep you busy for awhile.

Many thanks, raddr!

WiseNLucky

raddr wrote: I think that there is a feeling out there among investors (including many pros) that just because the S&P500 is down X% it must be close to a bottom and therefore is a bargain. I am grateful that I do not hold this delusion :shock: The good news is that there are plenty of other as...

being excluded from TMF's select list was not the reason I left. I left because of TMF chose to have a select list. This is my feeling exactly. If they had merely instituted fees, and made everyone pay them, I would still be there. I do not mind paying for access to something I enjoy, and have long...

Here's a link to my latest thread-starter from over at "that other board." I have to say that you all occasionally whet my appetite to see the carnage over there. But I have never been back to TMF since the fee kicked in. Not even to read. And I believe (but am not sure) there are others ...

I personally know several people who've recently told me they've gone into their 401k accounts, and switched their money out of stock funds and into bond funds. I'm hearing a lot of this lately. To me this is evidence that some are no longer buying the "long term buy and hold" line after ...

I tend to think the bubble / crash cycle will prove to be the dominant force over the next few years rather than the demographics. The demographics may cause the crash to be in slower motion than otherwise, though. You make a very good point here. Bernstein argued for the importance of demographics...

Lets say five million outstanding shares are sold. Not every single one of those five million shares are bought. Where do they go? Actually, they ARE all bought, even if the shares have to be bought by a "market maker". What happens is that the price changes enough to make it happen. Let'...