Search found 278 matches

by Mike
Thu Jan 13, 2005 6:58 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 39889

500k is a little tight for an early retiree, but a frugal and healthy single could probably do it. The 1.5m is quite comfortable.
by Mike
Thu Jan 13, 2005 8:29 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 39889

S&P dividends lag inflation for long periods of time, adding 40% bonds will only magnify this effect. You can't live off the dividends from balanced index because you will likely fall behind inflation. You would have to save some of them for future inflation adjusts. A young retiree should proba...
by Mike
Thu Jan 06, 2005 2:03 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Over Valued?
Replies: 32
Views: 29584

Less stable earnings, and a bit more caution. I suppose S&P earnings dropping in half in the post 2000 period does give one pause.
by Mike
Wed Jan 05, 2005 2:01 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Over Valued?
Replies: 32
Views: 29584

Quality down, valuation up. Now if he would only explain why.
by Mike
Tue Jan 04, 2005 12:56 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Deluxe Calculator V1.1A04
Replies: 5
Views: 6695

Thanks again John.
by Mike
Thu Dec 30, 2004 10:32 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Over Valued?
Replies: 32
Views: 29584

That's 12% per year - sounds high. If one did the property management themselves and some repairs, is that a more reliabable way to get a 6-7% SWR than equities ? Like any small business, rental real estate depends a lot upon the skill of the individual. Some people make quite a good living with it...
by Mike
Wed Dec 29, 2004 9:52 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: P/E10's for International Markets
Replies: 9
Views: 10443

With regard to equity mutual funds, Sir John recommends the value investor just play it safe for now, and wait. Trends change. There may be untapped areas such as micro caps, but it is difficult to invest here via mutual funds. You almost have to be able to pick your own micro cap stocks, or hire a ...
by Mike
Wed Dec 29, 2004 9:27 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Over Valued?
Replies: 32
Views: 29584

PE's should be higher than normal now because interest rates are so low Interest rates can change. less capital is needed per dollar of earnings This is a double edged sword. Less capital intensive industries means more labor intensive industries. Labor costs are rising, and human productivity does...
by Mike
Wed Dec 29, 2004 9:05 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: P/E10's for International Markets
Replies: 9
Views: 10443

Maybe the numbers above are wrong and/or I'm grossly missing additional risks... Sir John Templeton, who made a career of investing in under valued international assets, recently stated that for the first time ever he can find no good values any where in the world. Seeking value has become very pop...
by Mike
Tue Dec 28, 2004 7:39 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Over Valued?
Replies: 32
Views: 29584

No one knows what will happen from here, since the S&P's low dividend yield is unprecedented.
by Mike
Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:59 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Intercst Article on 2% SWR
Replies: 64
Views: 53739

By having a high stock allocation that loses money in the early years. They are unlikely to fall more than they did during the Great Depression, but retirees back then had deflation to cushion the blow. Now that the fed has taken a determined stance to prevent deflation at all costs, there is the v...
by Mike
Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:37 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Demographics and Dividends
Replies: 5
Views: 6863

Because many Boomers will remain on the job, today's strong economy will continue to be strong much longer than most people expect. Productivity will remain high longer. Corporate earnings will continue to be healthy.
Physical abilities tend to decline with age in most people.
by Mike
Mon Dec 20, 2004 5:09 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: HDBR50 Returns versus Earnings Yield
Replies: 23
Views: 18195

Today's earnings support is much stronger than that of 1967. Today's dividend amounts are much more secure. There is room on the upside for dividend increases. That's something at least. The dividend yield may be microscopic, but at least it may be more likely to keep up with inflation than it did ...
by Mike
Sun Dec 19, 2004 3:59 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: HDBR50 Returns versus Earnings Yield
Replies: 23
Views: 18195

$14.78 in 1967, $14.98 in 2003. Hmm.
by Mike
Sun Dec 19, 2004 3:55 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: HDBR50 Returns versus Earnings Yield
Replies: 23
Views: 18195

Looking at a graph, the (rolling) dividend amount peaked around 1987 at $4.00 per share and it has fallen almost steadily to $2.50 per share.
That is grim news for the high dividend strategy. Thanks for the S&P real dividend data.
by Mike
Sat Dec 18, 2004 3:14 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: HDBR50 Returns versus Earnings Yield
Replies: 23
Views: 18195

The time tested live off the dividends, don't touch the principal strategy, only using high dividend stocks instead of the S&P. I am wondering if the high dividend indexes can grow dividends as fast as the S&P, when stripped of their higher growth company components. The S&P itself grows...
by Mike
Fri Dec 17, 2004 1:56 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: HDBR50 Returns versus Earnings Yield
Replies: 23
Views: 18195

The data on your new tables shows P/E 10 going over 20 in the early 90s, and never coming back. This is historically unprecedented. Data is not yet in on how this long period out of the S&P will affect long term switching performance.
by Mike
Thu Dec 16, 2004 8:59 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: HDBR50 Returns versus Earnings Yield
Replies: 23
Views: 18195

How long will hocus2004 have to wait before he can buy wisely?
I would guess at least another 5 years, maybe longer. President Bush's Social Security private accounts may drive the market even higher.
by Mike
Sat Dec 11, 2004 6:23 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: High Dividend Strategies
Replies: 70
Views: 86917

I can't emphasize enough the importance of dividends and reinvesting those dividends. What does that mean for the future of the S&P, with its historically unprecedented low dividend yield? Even the "high dividend" stocks generally have paltry yields compared to their historic norms. I...
by Mike
Sat Dec 11, 2004 9:58 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: CTVR80 versus Earnings Yield
Replies: 43
Views: 30883

My own assessment of this time is that many people are going to be blindsided by lower than expected stock market returns in the next decade or two. That could make the new Social Security private accounts a disaster for anyone middle aged or above. They will lose part of their government guarantee...