Search found 435 matches

by hocus
Thu Feb 06, 2003 7:01 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: a humble plea, FIRE fans
Replies: 15
Views: 14933

I do think it's legit (others provide your thoughts, if you don't mind) for you to discuss some o fthe bizarre phenomena ("what possible legitimate reason would Poster Child say/do x?") and SWR technical matters (frankly, i don't know where else you will be able to get useful feedback). i...
by hocus
Thu Feb 06, 2003 5:40 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: a humble plea, FIRE fans
Replies: 15
Views: 14933

I plan to contribute at least that much or more to the NFB fund soon so that is not the issue. I understand that it is the principle that matters for you and not the bucks. That was always obvious. I'm just teasing when I mention the $30. I'm sincere in being willing to do anything to get you back ...
by hocus
Thu Feb 06, 2003 3:14 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: a humble plea, FIRE fans
Replies: 15
Views: 14933

I think i speak for most, and i know i speak for myself, when i say that your presence is very much desired and appreciated. so lurk or post, as you like (i'd selfishly prefer you to post). I understand, Wanderer, and I appreciate the compliment. I wish that each day had 48 hours. I must make some ...
by hocus
Thu Feb 06, 2003 2:06 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: a humble plea, FIRE fans
Replies: 15
Views: 14933

Hopefully this will be taken in the spirit in which it is offered - a humble request in the best interests of ALL involved. Wanderer: I have no problem with anything you say here, and I appreciate you coming forward and saying it. You handled the matter in exactly the right way. I will not post her...
by hocus
Wed Feb 05, 2003 4:04 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Different methods of safe withdrawal / strategy. Re: Hocus
Replies: 30
Views: 23537

That is where the idea for the study comes from - it essentially replicates and drops a few other bells and whistles in the mix. That's a useful summary of the intellectual background of the study, wanderer. All that you say here sounds right to me. But I still stand by my statement to Petey that I...
by hocus
Tue Feb 04, 2003 5:10 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Different methods of safe withdrawal / strategy. Re: Hocus
Replies: 30
Views: 23537

I agree that he has shown an incredible indifference to the damage that he has caused. In fact, it is way out of my range of experience. It is still hard to believe even though I have seen it again and again. Your reaction reveals the reason why it is taking the board so long to deal with the probl...
by hocus
Tue Feb 04, 2003 4:03 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Different methods of safe withdrawal / strategy. Re: Hocus
Replies: 30
Views: 23537

He did not demand that the answer be 74% stocks. He actually searched for the correct answer. It is just that he knew that the correct answer was in that ballpark...say 70% to 90% stocks. We disagree on this, JWR1945. That's OK, disagreement is healthy on a discussion board. I just don't want peopl...
by hocus
Tue Feb 04, 2003 2:01 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Different methods of safe withdrawal / strategy. Re: Hocus
Replies: 30
Views: 23537

I've seen all their moves. you have hung in there far longer than i felt necessary. that's the only basis on which i'd question your sanity The type of moves they engage in has caused many people to come to think of the board as their board, or what's worse, his board). It is not their board or his...
by hocus
Tue Feb 04, 2003 1:33 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Different methods of safe withdrawal / strategy. Re: Hocus
Replies: 30
Views: 23537

Reminded me of when the "facilitators", arrete and phantomdiver, piped in We discussed the Enablers (that's the term you were searching for, I think) at our lunch last summer. You were right. I was wrong. I was shocked when Phantondiver played the mental health card against me a little wh...
by hocus
Mon Feb 03, 2003 5:21 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Different methods of safe withdrawal / strategy. Re: Hocus
Replies: 30
Views: 23537

As we speak, hocus and jwr and bensolar are pointing out, explicitly these maneuvers. no less than eurotrash fell for several of them. eurotrash "fell" for the following.... Thanks for pointing that out, wanderer. One reaction I get a lot is, "So intercst puts up deceptive posts. Wha...
by hocus
Mon Feb 03, 2003 11:34 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Different methods of safe withdrawal / strategy. Re: Hocus
Replies: 30
Views: 23537

To live off the investment return less inflation and not touch the principle was intercst's philosopy too, no? No. Intercst's SWR numbers assume that you will be eating up principle every year. The withdrawal that he says will allow you to finance 30 years of retirement works only if you die in 30 ...
by hocus
Wed Jan 29, 2003 5:02 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: hocus's puzzle
Replies: 30
Views: 22708

The truly rational are not making make or break bets. they are highly conditioned to NOT spending the principal. This brings to mind another concern I have re the investing approach touted (and too infrequently rebutted) at Motley Fool's Retire Early board. The intercst approach presumes that you c...
by hocus
Tue Jan 28, 2003 6:24 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: From "That Other Board"
Replies: 15
Views: 12273

hocus's actions are still noble. He has continued to take the high road. It's a kindness on your part to say that, JWR1945. I appreciate it. Still, I worry that too much of that sort of talk sets me up for a fall. My primary motives here are not especially noble ones. My primary motives are self-in...
by hocus
Mon Jan 27, 2003 6:37 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: From "That Other Board"
Replies: 15
Views: 12273

From "That Other Board"

Here's a link to my latest thread-starter from over at "that other board."

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid= ... sort=whole
by hocus
Fri Jan 24, 2003 11:35 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: hocus's puzzle
Replies: 30
Views: 22708

The question of who is on the "other-side" of the middle class buy/sell... I believe is the middle class sell/buy. The larger mob-mentality dictates market direction. This is the way it is ordinrily portrayed , TRyan. But is it so? Say that in the next year the DOW goes down another 2,000...
by hocus
Fri Jan 24, 2003 1:16 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The purpose of SWR analysis
Replies: 18
Views: 15510

I realize that I have not answered your question. You did provide a possibly significant clue, JWR1945. You suggested that retirees behave differently than non-retirees in their stock acquisition behavior. That's a possible explanation of the puzzle. It could be that this is a matter of demographic...
by hocus
Thu Jan 23, 2003 11:32 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The purpose of SWR analysis
Replies: 18
Views: 15510

If the majority of investors would have kept their 74% stock allocation, the market would not have declined by 90%. I'm reluctant to raise this question because it sends things on a tangent. But I would love to know the answer, so I'll toss it up and see if anyone wants to take a swing. Stock price...
by hocus
Thu Jan 23, 2003 1:37 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The purpose of SWR analysis
Replies: 18
Views: 15510

Perhaps 'buy and hold' has really become the preferred course and investors are maintaining their allocations even in the face of a bear market Dagrims: I don't say that it's impossible that that will continue to be the case (although I have my doubts). But this argument is a "this time it's d...
by hocus
Wed Jan 22, 2003 8:09 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: SWR Semantics
Replies: 2
Views: 4091

Investors (using the term very loosely) destroyed their own returns...buying high while chasing fads and selling low out of fear. There is a sense in which this comment brings everything full circle. The impetus to my discussion of the safe withdrawal rate issue on the REHP board was a thread in wh...
by hocus
Mon Jan 20, 2003 5:45 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The purpose of SWR analysis
Replies: 18
Views: 15510

I think that hocus has overstated his point. (He has a good one.) I consider the take-out number to be an important part of any safe withdrawal rate study. There was great benefit when the original studies showed the dangers of making withdrawals of 7% to 10% (nominal). OTOH, I think that determini...