Search found 525 matches
- Sun Feb 06, 2005 4:29 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
- Replies: 30
- Views: 48777
The killer is, even if we are to presume that I got that one right (not a universarlly accepted notion, to be sure!), I still have ahead of me the decisions that I need to make for 2005 and 2006 and 2007 and all those other damn 2000 numbers. I'm totally screwed! There's no getting off this crazy c...
- Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:34 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
- Replies: 30
- Views: 48777
- Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:08 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
- Replies: 30
- Views: 48777
Well I don't think in terms of lowering my stock allocation. I think in terms of are there any asset classes that provide reasonable real returns? Global equity real returns from 1900-2002 were 5.4% real. The UK was 5.2% real. This is for total market indices and doesn't take account of either value...
- Sat Feb 05, 2005 1:42 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
- Replies: 30
- Views: 48777
UK Small Cap Value and UK Micro Cap are fairly valued. Small cap may be a tiny bit overpriced but not by much. NZ timber is fairly valued as the land is pre-owned and the forest is grown over a 20 year period and then harvested. So no easy way for it to be overpriced as it is not already grown. Ther...
- Sat Feb 05, 2005 5:53 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Is Your Dividend Income Protected by a Moat?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 16655
Actually after funding what growth makes sense, it then makes the most sense to repay all company debt and then to repurchase company shares if they are trading at what the management believe is either a fair value or a discount. Both of these are still preferable to taxable dividends on a total ret...
- Sat Feb 05, 2005 4:56 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
- Replies: 28
- Views: 40161
Well said. Petey Trying to take sometimes complex stuff based on simple ideas and boil it down into a post is often difficult. A simple presentation of ideas is much different from a presentation of simple ideas. Many people misinterpret ideas that are presented clearly. Because they can understand ...
- Sat Feb 05, 2005 4:55 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
- Replies: 30
- Views: 48777
Hi Rob, One has to be careful not to adopt a speculative mindset The idea to be wary not to adopt a speculative mindset came from John Maynard Keynes. I do not think one is in danger of doing so if one is using facts about valuation levels - various metrics - in order to make reasoned decisions. I d...
- Sat Feb 05, 2005 4:23 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Is Your Dividend Income Protected by a Moat?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 16655
Excellent quote. I somewhat agree and somewhat disagree. It does depend on what stage the company is in with regard to growth opportunties. Good management can retain free cash flow and use it productively for growth rather than pay some of it back to shareholders who then pay tax on it each year. T...
- Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:49 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Goals in Retirement
- Replies: 24
- Views: 42052
- Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:46 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Goals in Retirement
- Replies: 24
- Views: 42052
Well I did not want to suggest a sabbatical. I think most companies are aware that many people never return after taking such time off. In any case the kind of jobs I've had to date are such that taking four weeks off together would be tough to swing and if I requested 6-8 weeks together it would ha...
- Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:12 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Is Your Dividend Income Protected by a Moat?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 16655
Is Your Dividend Income Protected by a Moat?
If there was any strategy that might be considered a push-button exercise in investing, selecting a stock for a long, attractive dividend record ought to be it. Combine decades of consistent payments, predictable dividend increases and a decent yield, and what could be left worry about? The trouble...
- Fri Feb 04, 2005 3:22 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
- Replies: 30
- Views: 48777
Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
When thinking about valuations, 'market timing' gives smart thinking a bad name. It is a too easy way for people to quickly dismiss what otherwise might be a sound idea. The history of markets has shown that investors often discover new technology, get overly enthusiastic and buy stocks at any price...
- Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:14 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Switching: Help a New Member
- Replies: 26
- Views: 33340
Hi John, I have yet to read Dreman, but he is high on my list. The books I have recommended and the order in which I have recommended them was designed to be done on an easy learning curve. Dreman is probably on a par with the complexity of Bernstein. When I say complexity what I mean is that one ha...
- Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:36 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
- Replies: 28
- Views: 40161
I agree. I have a post I wrote in my head while I was out today which encapsulates my latest thinking on asset class selection and your thoughts on withdrawal rate and valuation strategies. Your post touches on this, but I will expand on that. I hope it will be provide food for thought, much nodding...
- Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:31 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
- Replies: 28
- Views: 40161
Oh very much so. I have a 5% allocation to managed timber, 2.5% of which is planned for Canada's TimberWest listed stock and the other for NZ. This is instead of Plum Creek which is out because of likely further US dollar declines as the US Gov't continues to borrow, which reduces my real return to ...
- Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:41 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Switching: Help a New Member
- Replies: 26
- Views: 33340
Wow, thanks to everyone who has responded. John and Hocus, your posts were very helpful, and, Petey, I especially appreciate your tutorial. I've already read it a couple of times, and I will certainly be doing so many more times. I do understand so much more now, and I'm in the process of digesting...
- Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:24 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Goals in Retirement
- Replies: 24
- Views: 42052
- Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:43 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: FIRE - How to spend your time, part 2
- Replies: 5
- Views: 13710
I don't have anything to say in reply other than that was a good post. :lol: Petey When both of my parents were working, my mother would complain that she never had time to do watercolors, and that was what she would do when she retired. My father wisely replied that if she really wanted to do water...
- Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:40 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: How I spend my post-FIRE time
- Replies: 70
- Views: 77211
Yes, this is always the trade off. Time for money and how many years are left to enjoy it. I like the idea of learning about investing because it can cut down the time to reach financial independence and provide more motivation to earn more to get there sooner to whatever degree achievable. This is ...
- Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:14 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Dividend payout ratios over history. Other div. stuff.
- Replies: 3
- Views: 5835
I would say that is true but it depends on the level of buybacks. Timberland just bought back 4% of their stock and have done so for a couple of years now. This is a smart use of their excess cash flow as growth in the US has slowed and they can only invest internationally so fast. This boosts their...