Search found 559 matches
- Sun Apr 25, 2004 3:37 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds
- Replies: 13
- Views: 22814
there is a whole board culture at tmf of discovering past associations and attempting to predict the future on that basis this is my favorite web page dubunking the dumb 4 strategy http://www.investorhome.com/dogs.htm Sharpe (William i.e. the nobel Laureate)makes the point that on one hand, if you s...
- Sun Apr 25, 2004 3:12 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: disclaimer for swr board
- Replies: 1
- Views: 8402
disclaimer for swr board
Mike (on the swr board): Because investor newbies who chance upon the board may misinterpret what they are reading, I wonder if a sticky post at the top carefully worded to explain things to newbies might help to avoid actions by them based upon incomplete understanding. Most of the regulars who pos...
- Sun Apr 25, 2004 2:44 am
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Defense of Switching
- Replies: 8
- Views: 10339
- Sat Apr 24, 2004 8:01 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds
- Replies: 13
- Views: 22814
- Sat Apr 24, 2004 2:50 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds
- Replies: 13
- Views: 22814
jwr has a good point about switching thresholds
from his defense of switching post: In our recommendations we have repeatedly advised people not to depend on numbers alone. Rather, we have advised people to look for cause and effect. We have searched out sensitivities to reduce our dependence on the numbers themselves. some of us (e.g. me) tend t...
- Fri Apr 23, 2004 1:30 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Worth a look on the SWR board
- Replies: 15
- Views: 23160
- Thu Apr 22, 2004 2:54 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: PE switching studies - proceed with caution!
- Replies: 12
- Views: 23562
nice post and good use of the post 1980 data (excluded from the usual historical 30 year series) this would certainly make a reasonable person cautious about blindly applying past strategies to the future of course an unreasonable person could invent some reason to exclude the post 1980 data :lol:(a...
- Thu Apr 22, 2004 2:35 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Worth a look on the SWR board
- Replies: 15
- Views: 23160
I would like to see demographics added to the model at a minimum, but finding the relevent data is not easy. wrt unprecedented current and future demographic shifts I think it is going to be hard to find data :lol: seriously, I favor lower lt returns but I think it is dangerous to blindly apply pas...
- Tue Apr 20, 2004 9:24 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The post jwr1945 doesn't want you to see
- Replies: 6
- Views: 13643
- Mon Apr 19, 2004 3:36 pm
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The post jwr1945 doesn't want you to see
- Replies: 6
- Views: 13643
- Sun Apr 18, 2004 2:06 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The post jwr1945 doesn't want you to see
- Replies: 6
- Views: 13643
I lifted this from a hocus post at early-retirement.org I developed the data-based SWR tool in early 1996 and have been using it and refining it ever since. I did not do any formal statistical testing of the concept in the mid-90s. JWR1945 has helped me with the statistical analysis with the work he...
- Sun Apr 18, 2004 1:47 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Worth a look on the SWR board
- Replies: 15
- Views: 23160
Agreed. What's worse, however, is claiming to have 60 independent data points where there's really only 2 or 3. You can't get valid statistics from severely overlapped data. I guess we have differing outlooks on which aspect is most egregious. The overall goal seems to be to generate some data to p...
- Sat Apr 17, 2004 11:25 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Worth a look on the SWR board
- Replies: 15
- Views: 23160
I read the response to the response. I am still not sure what to make of throwing out data and then announcing that what is left fits great. A straight line provides an excellent fit for a scatter plot of Historical Database Rates versus Earnings Yield maybe this is the way it is done now a days (wh...
- Sat Apr 17, 2004 7:23 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: The post jwr1945 doesn't want you to see
- Replies: 6
- Views: 13643
The post jwr1945 doesn't want you to see
a rambling rob bennett post that I copied (in its entirety) yesterday from tmf. sample: My usual practice has been to refer to the factors focused on in the conventional methodology SWR studies as "volatility" and to refer to the factor not given adequate consideration as "valuation.&...
- Sat Apr 17, 2004 6:50 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: self described "mental case" asks for tmf posting
- Replies: 0
- Views: 16663
self described "mental case" asks for tmf posting
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20617175&Posted=20649269&pt=r rob/hocus/mcbeaned is now posting with several personas on different boards sort of interesting I didn't think anyone could be as dense as hocus was pretending to be I was hoping that ES wouldn't mind if I quoted rob bennet...
- Sat Apr 17, 2004 1:41 am
- Forum: FIRE Board
- Topic: Worth a look on the SWR board
- Replies: 15
- Views: 23160
- Tue Apr 13, 2004 1:38 am
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: Is it time to get rid of the swr research board?
- Replies: 4
- Views: 11453
- Mon Apr 12, 2004 2:39 pm
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: Is it time to get rid of the swr research board?
- Replies: 4
- Views: 11453
Is it time to get rid of the swr research board?
hocus/rob bennett is linking to jwr1945 posts on the "research" board at tmf to carry on the hocus anti intercst jihad. NFB is sort of an unwitting participant in more of the nonsensical tmf conflict that hocus enjoys promoting so much.
- Mon Apr 12, 2004 12:39 pm
- Forum: Town Center
- Topic: hocus back at TMF - LOL!
- Replies: 8
- Views: 16787
- Mon Apr 12, 2004 12:37 pm
- Forum: SWR Research Group
- Topic: Where we are now.
- Replies: 5
- Views: 7799