Search found 265 matches

by raddr
Thu Dec 05, 2002 10:04 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Importance of the sequence of returns for calculating SWR
Replies: 34
Views: 12819

Ben and wanderer, i bet someone would argue that you are therefore " predicting something worse than the past " whatever the f that means. LOL. Funny! You would definitely get that response elsewhere, as well as the other stock defense: "Well, even 0% wouldn't help if an asteroid hit....
by raddr
Thu Dec 05, 2002 8:51 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Importance of the sequence of returns for calculating SWR
Replies: 34
Views: 12819

Importance of the sequence of returns for calculating SWR

Wanderer and I were discussing awhile back how sensitive the SWR ("safe" withdrawal rate) is to the sequence of returns from year to year. I played around with Shiller's market data since 1871 and found that merely switching two years in the sequence could make a huge difference. IOW if yo...
by raddr
Mon Dec 02, 2002 10:30 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Update on TMF Retire Early Board Saga
Replies: 14
Views: 5107

hocus, Glad to see you back! I appreciate the enhancement to my knowledge of the safe withdrawal rate question that I have attained in my visits to this community (expecially those provided by raddr). I greatly enjoyed discussing SWR's but it probably would not have happened anytime soon if you hadn...
by raddr
Tue Nov 26, 2002 8:59 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Diversified portfolio book recommendations?
Replies: 7
Views: 3051

Hi Petey,

As far as I'm concerned the best I've seen is Bernstein's "Four Pillars". It tells you pretty much all you need to know about asset allocation. I'd also recommend reading as many of his Efficient Frontier articles as you can.
by raddr
Tue Nov 26, 2002 4:59 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Dory36 Calculator Workaround
Replies: 3
Views: 2031

Re: Dory36 Calculator Workaround

I can duplicate my earlier results by removing the check mark for using inflation adjusted withdrawal amounts (for Withdrawal Change 2). All year by year dollar amounts are identical to those that I had previously calculated and reported in FIRE 50 Year Dual Portfolios. I get the same results using...