Search found 525 matches

by peteyperson
Sat Mar 19, 2005 5:37 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Conservative distribution phase portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 8313

Conservative distribution phase portfolio

"Conservative" may be a misnomer, but the portfolio is intended to survive a decade like the 1970s and keep on tickin'. Sample portfolio:~ Global Common Stocks - 35% Global Real Estate - 20% Timber - 10% Oil & Gas | Metals & Minerals - 5% Absolute Return - 10% 10-Year TIPS - 20% ====================...
by peteyperson
Sat Mar 19, 2005 2:19 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Overview: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 5
Views: 7571

Thanks Petey. What global real estate and timber mutual funds do you recommend? Are global REITS and timber reasonably priced now? US REITS seem a bit pricey to me, but I don't know about global REITS or timber. Hi Mike, This my own personal take, Mike, so you have to do your own research and not r...
by peteyperson
Sat Mar 19, 2005 2:06 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS Equivalents
Replies: 7
Views: 7878

1.05% net. 2% TIPS is gross and so net of taxes and brokerage fees, not much in it. Neither offer attractive yields and even the spend-it-down-in-30-years plan I assume would not deliver much beyond 2% on 1.05% rate per year. You able to compute that for me, John? Also would be interested to see th...
by peteyperson
Sat Mar 19, 2005 2:01 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Something Worth Knowing
Replies: 16
Views: 13745

If you are able I would like to see the numbers for 2% TIPS over 30 to 50 years at 5 year increments. I would also like to see how it might work on UK I-Bonds at their 1.05% tax-free yield with the same sell down approach. Thank you for a series of outstanding posts. You have some great ideas. I am...
by peteyperson
Sat Mar 19, 2005 1:35 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Overview: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 5
Views: 7571

Alternative choices include careful selection of stocks and other investments that differ significantly from the S&P500 as a whole. Suggestions? I know you like high divvy stocks. Anything else? Hi Mike, Timber is a separate asset class and yields 4-5%. Global REITs yield up to 6%. Several new affo...
by peteyperson
Sat Mar 19, 2005 1:03 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Power of Dumb Investing
Replies: 5
Views: 6692

As a take off to the annuity thread - and given the current environment. Suppose you are planning to ER today - and have no expertise in stocks, bonds, real estate, etc., etc. What would you do? I would spend as long as it took to understand what I didn't know. I would not go to an advisor as they ...
by peteyperson
Sat Mar 19, 2005 12:57 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Something Worth Knowing
Replies: 16
Views: 13745

I'm still not happy with any plan that expects a portfolio life of just 30 years. That might work for someone wishing to retire age 60 and accepting that they'll be broke at 90 (if they live that long), but for anyone younger I don't see it as viable at all. Thank you, peteyperson. Thirty years is ...
by peteyperson
Sat Mar 19, 2005 12:40 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS Equivalents
Replies: 7
Views: 7878

I wrote in my recent Overview post: Of course, there is a problem with 2% TIPS. They no longer exist. The issue is whether a person can actually construct a good equivalent portfolio. There is a requirement to be able to handle emergency cash needs. There is another requirement to match inflation. ...
by peteyperson
Thu Mar 17, 2005 6:27 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Something Worth Knowing
Replies: 16
Views: 13745

Petey, Do you have more info on the ICEbonds? What's the yield? Currency? Where can you buy them? Thanks, Beachbumz 8) Iceland - Rating BB- Inflation 4.1-5% (IBN are non-callable. Housing authority but same guarantee as Treasury) http://bonds.is/ Canada (bottom of page) Yld: 2% http://www.bankofcan...
by peteyperson
Thu Mar 17, 2005 5:18 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Something Worth Knowing
Replies: 16
Views: 13745

Here is something worth knowing from my latest analysis. It is from Overview: Using both Initial and Current Valuations dated Thursday, Mar 17, 2005. http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=3564 An alternative baseline These data shout at us to abandon stocks entirely at today's valuations. A...
by peteyperson
Thu Mar 03, 2005 10:41 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Ben Stein short piece on the choices for retirement
Replies: 3
Views: 7987

Hmmm -on reflection - I could envision the American version being in Panama, Thailand, etc, etc - living on SS and perhaps a small pension - forced to come home to make use of Medicare. The other bugaboo would be rampant inflation like that experience by the Terhorst's in Argentina early in their E...
by peteyperson
Thu Mar 03, 2005 12:34 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Ben Stein short piece on the choices for retirement
Replies: 3
Views: 7987

Ben Stein short piece on the choices for retirement

Try this on for size. You're seventy five years old. You live in the comfy home you've always lived in. You play golf in good weather. In bad weather, you travel to where it's warm and sunny. When your grandchildren call, you take them out on the lake in your new boat. Your wife takes classes in th...
by peteyperson
Wed Mar 02, 2005 10:21 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: REHP 2005 Portfolio Update
Replies: 6
Views: 7782

I find it a confused hotchpotch of stuff. I don't think the 1993 onwards timeframe right thru a bull market is either long enough sample or a good sample period to use. It does not reflect investing reality at all. S&P 500 returns were way above the norm, growth went thru an abnormal spurt and so a ...
by peteyperson
Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:55 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Getting to Enough
Replies: 8
Views: 7001

Hi Karma, Excellent post. My learning about FIRE really came out of reading books in personal finance. I was never happy with the few small chapters on investing. I came to it slowly. If had been investing in 1997 I would have bought wall-to-wall tech and got blown away. I didn't know an awful lot b...
by peteyperson
Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:23 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: A New Vision of Retirement
Replies: 6
Views: 6183

Re: A New Vision of Retirement

For me, when reading this I still come back to the dichotomy of either being financial self-sufficient or still needing to work to pay the bills. If one needs to work it just is not the same thing. One is forced to keep working by necessity. It is possible to transition into a field one has passion ...
by peteyperson
Sun Feb 06, 2005 11:50 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 20715

Hi Ben, Well certainly I made my point forcefully, but I never mentioned you by name, nor did I mean any disrespect. We are friends and I would not want to jeopardize that. I disagree with you on owning everything. It is certainly an attractive methodology and it will reduce the bumps far more than ...
by peteyperson
Sun Feb 06, 2005 7:36 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 20715

My money will be where my mouth is too. I don't discuss anything I don't believe in and it is up to the individual to weigh-up their own personal choices. The NZ timber is a private investment that the likes of Yale and Harvard buy into and is not a scam. One could instead happily choose to own Timb...
by peteyperson
Sun Feb 06, 2005 7:33 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 20715

Hi Dave I don't think there can be such a world. That capital would find its way to be deployed in building new businesses either here or abroad. The national savings rate is so low that too much capital is not really the problem directly. Bonds were bad almost everywhere including the UK. Real retu...
by peteyperson
Sun Feb 06, 2005 7:28 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 20715

One useful Shiller quote about markets that even Jeremy Grantham seems to be forgetting: Many media accounts in the mid- to late 1990s have focused on what they consider the craziness of investors. For example, a Fortune story in April 1996 told reports stopping random people on the street and askin...
by peteyperson
Sun Feb 06, 2005 4:49 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 20715

I'm making a serious point here in my long-and-winding-road fashion. When you retire at age 65, you can say "this is the investment plan that I intend to stick with until the final days." When you retire at age 43, you cannot. Your life is going to change from age 43 forward in dramatic ways and th...