Search found 278 matches

by Mike
Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:06 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: CTVR80 versus Earnings Yield
Replies: 43
Views: 13955

Would you think this data better fit range widening by the square root law of the bell curve, or Mandlebrot's 3/4 power (.73) (page 178)?
by Mike
Tue Dec 07, 2004 5:47 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Withdrawal Amount Relationships
Replies: 4
Views: 2936

Are the year 20 withdrawal amounts inflation adjusted back to year one?
by Mike
Sun Dec 05, 2004 6:00 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Out of sample SWR (non-US)
Replies: 28
Views: 11635

Bad things can certainly happen.
by Mike
Sun Dec 05, 2004 2:11 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Out of sample SWR (non-US)
Replies: 28
Views: 11635

I read the links. It would seem likely that SWRs for several countries are likely to be lower than US ones, based upon their lower equity returns.
by Mike
Thu Dec 02, 2004 4:13 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Three posts for my doctor.
Replies: 17
Views: 6783

I see what you mean. Benoit is a good teacher. He explains things in a way that I can understand.
by Mike
Thu Dec 02, 2004 8:37 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: "Getting Going" or "Going Bust"?
Replies: 26
Views: 9879

...a life expectancy of 25 years...

Not long enough. Using this algorithm for 40 years yields a 2 1/2% withdrawal rate.
by Mike
Tue Nov 30, 2004 5:32 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Dividend Yield Predicts Market Returns
Replies: 2
Views: 2037

Thanks for the summary John.
by Mike
Tue Nov 30, 2004 12:01 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Three posts for my doctor.
Replies: 17
Views: 6783

Benoit Mandelbrot

I just borrowed a copy of his latest book at the library, The Misbehavior of Markets. He makes an interesting case for markets being far more dangerous than most experts realize, which makes timing more important.
by Mike
Sun Nov 28, 2004 2:56 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Hocus/others: an update on your FIRE status?
Replies: 13
Views: 5890

I placed a great deal of emphasis on figuring out what I would be doing on a continuing basis after retirement.

My retirement was a complete surprise to me. My job unexpectedly closed down, and started paying me a small pension. I don't have any master plan, just take life one day at a time.
by Mike
Wed Nov 24, 2004 2:05 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Out of sample SWR (non-US)
Replies: 28
Views: 11635

I don't think markets such as Japan have stable track records as long as the US one. Investors before WWII pretty much lost everything when they lost the war, which makes their SWR very low (perhaps zero) in the period since 1871 (the US SWR study period). Other war ravaged (and hyper inflation rava...
by Mike
Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:48 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: John Templeton
Replies: 2
Views: 2130

John Templeton

Sir John doesn't like the current valuation of equities around the world, real estate, or bonds. Increased inflation will destroy cash. He counsels pension funds to wait it out in open end funds employing hedging strategies.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent ... 929af.html
by Mike
Mon Nov 22, 2004 1:26 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: What happens if you withdraw 25% of each year's gains?
Replies: 2
Views: 2485

[The relative Safe Withdrawal Rates with TIPS (SWR = 2.9%) versus commercial paper (SWR = 3.1%) may be an artifact of how the confidence limits were determined.] So for those who index the S&P, if they stay under about 3% they will probably be ok. One might get a a bit more by going higher equi...
by Mike
Sun Nov 21, 2004 1:02 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: "Getting Going" or "Going Bust"?
Replies: 26
Views: 9879

Earlier withdrawals are a little bit higher with the alternative, but later amounts (around 20 years) are lower.

So you are saying a person can't save too little and depend upon fancy tricks to bail them out.
by Mike
Sat Nov 20, 2004 10:43 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: High Dividend Strategies
Replies: 70
Views: 41966

It was in the article you linked to. It is the return of the high P/B stocks in the decade leading up to their high P/B status. I am not quite sure how to make use of it, but it was an interesting bit of data.
by Mike
Fri Nov 19, 2004 3:23 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: High Dividend Strategies
Replies: 70
Views: 41966

The highest P/BV (price to book value) stocks outperformed the market by 187 percent.

That's impressive.
by Mike
Fri Nov 19, 2004 3:03 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: High Dividend Strategies
Replies: 70
Views: 41966

"real" returns

The study shows treasuries and bonds have negative real returns. However, if everyone piles into the S&P, it seems to me that dividends will fall so low that stocks will wind up with lower returns. Good for the people who get in early, bad for the late comers.
by Mike
Thu Nov 18, 2004 4:43 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: "Getting Going" or "Going Bust"?
Replies: 26
Views: 9879

I used FireCalc and the REHP calculator, and removing the inflation adjust made little difference in the 100% SWR. I don't know of any quick way to test the points in Jonathan's thesis. Odds are that the study is accurate for the historical period covered, at the survival rate specified in the study...
by Mike
Wed Nov 17, 2004 11:24 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: "Getting Going" or "Going Bust"?
Replies: 26
Views: 9879

You can take more than 4% if you don't adjust for inflation. Same old story. If you are willing to risk a lower standard of living later on if inflation takes off, or the market swoons, you can spend more at the start.